RacingNation.com
Home / Cup Corner / Watkins Glen Fantasy Forecast

Watkins Glen Fantasy Forecast

WATKINS GLEN INTERNATIONAL
Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at The Glen
Sunday, August 8, 2010 in Watkins Glen, NY

This Sunday’s race at Watkins Glen International will be the second of two road course events for Cup drivers this year, the first being at Infineon Raceway in June. Drivers will make 90 laps around this 11-turn, 2.45-mile track.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on a statistical formula I’ve developed over years of analyzing races. It factors in drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 14 Tony Stewart
2) 48 Jimmie Johnson
3) 99 Carl Edwards
4) 18 Kyle Busch
5) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
6) 16 Greg Biffle
7) 47 Marcos Ambrose
8) 11 Denny Hamlin
9) 24 Jeff Gordon
10) 33 Clint Bowyer
11) 9 Kasey Kahne
12) 29 Kevin Harvick
13) 1 Jamie McMurray
14) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
15) 2 Kurt Busch
16) 17 Matt Kenseth
17) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
18) 5 Mark Martin
19) 31 Jeff Burton
20) 39 Ryan Newman
21) 7 Robby Gordon
22) 98 Paul Menard
23) 19 Elliott Sadler
24) 20 Joey Logano
25) 83 Boris Said

WATKINS GLEN DRIVER STATS
Tony Stewart (No. 14 Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Eighth in points
? Five wins, seven top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 5.3
? Series-best Average Running Position of 3.9
? Series-best Driver Rating of 135.0
? Series-high 104 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 119.570 mph
? Series-high 438 Laps in the Top 15 (96.9%)
? Series-high 126 Quality Passes

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Fourth in points
? Three top fives, four top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 13.0
? Average Running Position of 7.5, second-best
? Driver Rating of 106.5, third-best
? 11 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 118.794 mph, fourth-fastest
? 407 Laps in the Top 15 (90.0%), second-most
? 90 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? 10th in points
? Two top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 8.8
? Average Running Position of 14.2, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 91.4, eighth-best
? 13 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? 255 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 118.247 mph, 11th-fastest
? 289 Laps in the Top 15 (63.9%), sixth-most
? 103 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? Sixth in points
? One win, two top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 10.8
? Average Running Position of 13.3, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 104.9, fourth-best
? 32 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 118.745 mph, sixth-fastest
? 292 Laps in the Top 15 (64.6%), fifth-most
? 106 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)
? 21st in points
? One top five, two top 10s
? Average finish of 16.3
? Average Running Position of 10.6, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 101.4, sixth-best
? 15 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 118.907 mph, third-fastest
? 238 Laps in the Top 15 (88.1%), ninth-most
? 91 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Marcos Ambrose (No. 47 Little Debbie Toyota)
? Enters Watkins Glen 28th in points
? Two top fives, two top 10s

? Average finish of 2.5
? Average Running Position of 13.8, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 106.9, second-best
? 27 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 119.041 mph, second-fastest

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Freight Toyota)
? Third in points
? One top five, four top 10s
? Average finish of 7.5
? Average Running Position of 9.8, third-best
? Driver Rating of 104.6, fifth-best
? 11 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 118.772 mph, fifth-fastest
? 306 Laps in the Top 15 (85.0%), third-most
? 101 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Second in points
? Four wins, six top fives, eight top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 14.8
? Average Running Position of 15.2, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 88.9, 10th-best
? 17 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 219 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 118.349 mph, ninth-fastest
? 228 Laps in the Top 15 (50.4%), 11th-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? NASCAR Sprint Cup Series points leader
? One win, two top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 13.9
? Average Running Position of 16.0, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 88.7, 11th-best
? 286 Laps in the Top 15 (63.3%), seventh-most
? 85 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite/Vortex Dodge)
? Seventh in points
? Three top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 19.8
? Average Running Position of 15.4, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 99.4, seventh-best
? 39 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 212 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 118.672 mph, seventh-fastest
? 305 Laps in the Top 15 (67.5%), fourth-most
? 116 Quality Passes, third-most

Martin Truex Jr. (No. 56 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota)
? 20th in points
? One top five, two top 10s
? Average finish of 16.8
? Average Running Position of 14.4, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 83.1, 12th-best
? 240 Laps in the Top 15 (66.7%), eighth-most
? 92 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Robby Gordon (No. 7 Robby Gordon Motorsports Toyota)
? 33rd in points
? One win, seven top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 11.3
? Driver Rating of 89.2, ninth-best
? 11 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? 218 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 118.505 mph, eighth-fastest

“THE GLEN” HIGHLIGHTS
? Buck Baker won the first pole and race in 1957.
? The race winner has started first in nine of 27 races. The last race winner to start from the pole was Kyle Busch in 2008.
? Mark Martin leads all drivers with wins from the pole with three in a row between 1993 and 1995.
? 17 of the 27 race winners have started from a top-five starting position.
? 16 different drivers have won races, led by Tony Stewart, with five.
? Jeff Gordon set the all-time NASCAR Sprint Cup record for road-course victories with his victory in 2001, his seventh on a road course. He has since won two more (both at Infineon Raceway), for a career total of nine.
? Three active drivers with more than one start have an average finish in the top 10: Carl Edwards (8.8 in five starts), Denny Hamlin (7.5 in four starts), Mark Martin (7.8 in 20 starts), Tony Stewart (5.3 in 11 starts) and Marcos Ambrose (2.5 in two starts).
? Tony Stewart has a Driver Rating of 135.0 at Watkins Glen, the highest average rating by any driver at any track since the Loop Data statistic’s inception in 2005.

Share Button