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Pocono Fantasy Forecast

POCONO RACEWAY
Sunoco Red Cross Pennsylvania 500
Sunday, August 1, 2010 in Long Pond, PA

NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers head to Pocono Raceway in Pennsylvania this weekend for the running of the Pennsylvania 500. This 2.5 mile triangular superspeedway has three long straightaways and three unique turns. Turn one has 14 degrees of banking, turn two is banked 8 degrees and is known as the “tunnel turn”, and turn three is a wide, sweeping turn with 6 degrees of banking.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on a statistical formula I’ve developed over years of analyzing races. It factors in drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 14 Tony Stewart
2) 48 Jimmie Johnson
3) 24 Jeff Gordon
4) 11 Denny Hamlin
5) 33 Clint Bowyer
6) 29 Kevin Harvick
7) 99 Carl Edwards
8) 9 Kasey Kahne
9) 5 Mark Martin
10) 2 Kurt Busch
11) 31 Jeff Burton
12) 39 Ryan Newman
13) 17 Matt Kenseth
14) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
15) 18 Kyle Busch
16) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
17) 16 Greg Biffle
18) 00 David Reutimann
19) 1 Jamie McMurray
20) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
21) 20 Joey Logano
22) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
23) 77 Sam Hornish Jr.
24) 47 Marcos Ambrose
25) 12 Brad Keselowski

POCONO DRIVER STATS
Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot Chevrolet)
? Ninth in points
? Two wins, eight top fives, 17 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 11.9
? Average Running Position of 11.5, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 101.4, fourth-best
? 70 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 860 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.753 mph, fifth-fastest
? Series-high 1,612 Laps in the Top 15 (76.3%)
? Series-high 485 Quality Passes

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Fourth in points
? Two wins, six top fives, 11 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 9.5
? Average Running Position of 10.9, second-best
? Driver Rating of 103.7, second-best
? 119 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.940 mph, third-fastest
? 1,607 Laps in the Top 15 (76.0%), second-most
? 449 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Second in points
? Four wins, 16 top fives, 24 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 10.7
? Average Running Position of 11.0, third-best
? Driver Rating of 96.1, sixth-best
? 30 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
? 889 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.679 mph, sixth-fastest
? 1,532 Laps in the Top 15 (72.5%), fourth-most
? 482 Quality Passes, third-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Office Toyota)
? Third in points
? Four wins, six top fives, seven top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 8.6
? Series-best Average Running Position of 9.3
? Series-best Driver Rating of 119.1
? Series-high 328 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 159.505 mph
? 1,405 Laps in the Top 15 (82.2%), eighth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? NASCAR Sprint Cup Series points leader
? Three top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 15.1
? Average Running Position of 14.6, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 90.1, 11th-best
? 911 Green Flag Passes, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.407 mph, 13th-fastest
? 440 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? 10th in points
? Two wins, four top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 13.3
? Average Running Position of 15.1, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 98.5, fifth-best
? 141 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.542 mph, ninth-fastest
? 1,270 Laps in the Top 15 (60.1%), 13th-most
? 384 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Ford)
? 17th in points
? One win, three top fives, five top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 16.4
? Average Running Position of 14.0, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 92.0, 10th-best
? 155 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? 899 Green Flag Passes, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.642 mph, seventh-fastest
? 1,290 Laps in the Top 15 (61.0%), 12th-most
? 449 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 Hendrickcars.com/GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
? 13th in points
? 19 top fives, 32 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 11.1
? Average Running Position of 11.3, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 95.8, seventh-best
? 75 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.775 mph, fourth-fastest
? 1,589 Laps in the Top 15 (75.2%), third-most
? 431 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite/Vortex Dodge)
? Fifth in points
? Two wins, seven top fives, 10 top 10s
? Average finish of 15.9
? Average Running Position of 11.6, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 103.7, second-best
? 241 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.993 mph, second-fastest
? 1,489 Laps in the Top 15 (70.4%), sixth-most
? 402 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? Enters Pocono seventh in points
? Seven top fives, 16 top 10s
? Average finish of 16.2
? Average Running Position of 14.2, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 89.1, 13th-best
? 45 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? 853 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
? 1,321 Laps in the Top 15 (62.5%), 11th-most
? 416 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), ninth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. ARMY Chevrolet)
? 15th in points
? One win, six top fives, seven top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 13.4
? Average Running Position of 11.6, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 94.5, eighth-best
? 857 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.436 mph, 12th-fastest
? 1,490 Laps in the Top 15 (70.5%), fifth-most
? 479 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
? Eighth in points
? Three top fives, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 14.2
? Average Running Position of 13.1, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 89.6, 12th-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.555 mph, eighth-fastest
? 1,408 Laps in the Top 15 (66.6%), seventh-most
? 483 Quality Passes, second-most

POCONO RACEWAY HIGHLIGHTS
? Richard Petty won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Pocono in 1971.
? 28 different drivers have won races at Pocono, led by Bill Elliott, with five victories; 20 drivers have won more than once there.
? There have been six season sweeps at Pocono, the last by Denny Hamlin in 2006.
? Bobby Allison and Tim Richmond each won three consecutive races at Pocono.
? 47 of 65 Pocono races have been won from a top-10 start.
? Rick Hendrick leads all car owners with 11 Pocono victories.
? Mark Martin leads all drivers in top fives (19) and top 10s (32), but has yet to win at Pocono. His best finish was second, six times (most recently in August 2004).
? Denny Hamlin (8.6) and Jimmie Johnson (9.5) are the only active drivers to average a top-10 finish.

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