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Phoenix Fantasy Forecast

PHOENIX INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY
Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500(k)
Sunday, November 15, 2009 in Avondale, AZ

This weekend, Sprint Cup drivers and crews make the long haul west to the hot and sunny Phoenix International Raceway for the dash in the desert known as the Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. This is the Cup series’ second appearance of 2009 at Phoenix, and the second last race in the 2009 Chase for the Championship. Phoenix has a unique tri-oval shape with a dogleg curve in the backstretch between turns two and three. Drivers will make 312 laps (500 kilometers) around this relatively flat, 11-degree, 1.0-mile oval.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers’ success at this track and similar tracks such as New Hampshire and Richmond, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing. I also factor in key driver stats from their most recent runs at Phoenix.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 11 Denny Hamlin
3) 5 Mark Martin
4) 2 Kurt Busch
5) 14 Tony Stewart
6) 24 Jeff Gordon
7) 16 Greg Biffle
8) 18 Kyle Busch
9) 31 Jeff Burton
10) 29 Kevin Harvick
11) 99 Carl Edwards
12) 20 Joey Logano
13) 33 Clint Bowyer
14) 9 Kasey Kahne
15) 17 Matt Kenseth
16) 39 Ryan Newman
17) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
18) 1 Martin Truex Jr.
19) 26 Jamie McMurray
20) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
21) 00 David Reutimann
22) 12 Brad Keselowski
23) 83 Brian Vickers
24) 07 Casey Mears
25) 71 Bobby Labonte

The No. 48 team faced its first dose of adversity during the Chase last Sunday at Texas when Johnson was in an accident on Lap 3 that sent the entire team scrambling to salvage the day. Johnson ended up finishing 38th and the point lead the No. 48 team had accumulated going into Texas had shrunk to 73 points. “It was definitely not the day we wanted,” Johnson said. “We did not want to lose points like that. Luckily we had a big margin. We’ve been saying all along that anything can happen, but we’re going to two great tracks (Phoenix and Homestead-Miami) for us and we’ll just keep racing.”

Calling Phoenix a “great track for us” is an understatement. Johnson leads the series in wins at Phoenix with three. He dominated last season’s Chase event at Phoenix starting on the pole and leading 217 laps for the win. In doing so, he scored a near perfect driver rating of 149.9. Plus, in 12 starts, Johnson has posted three wins, seven top fives and 10 top 10s at Phoenix.

Keep your eye on two other racers this weekend. Both Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick have scored perfect driver ratings of 150.0, making Phoenix and Pocono the only two tracks where multiple NASCAR Sprint Cup 150s have been scored. Busch did it in 2005, while Harvick repeated the feat in 2006.

SELECTED PHOENIX DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Three wins, seven top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 5.4 in 12 races
? Series-best Average Running Position of 5.5
? Series-best Driver Rating of 120.0
? Series-high 283 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 123.556 mph
? Series-high 2,675 Laps in the Top 15 (95.2%)
? 243 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), third-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? Four top fives, five top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 10.4 in eight races
? Average Running Position of 12.1, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 96.4, ninth-best
? 89 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 345 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.083 mph, seventh-fastest
? 1,884 Laps in the Top 15 (75.5%), ninth-most
? 208 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 Kellogg’s/CARQUEST Chevrolet)
? Two wins, 10 top fives, 16 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 9.0 in 25 races
? Average Running Position of 11.4, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 102.2, third-best
? 190 Fastest Laps Run, third-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? One win, four top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 12.5 in 13 races
? Average Running Position of 8.7, second-best
? Driver Rating of 102.4, second-best
? 179 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 1,999 Laps in the Top 15 (80.1%), seventh-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? One win, seven top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 10.1 in 15 races
? Average Running Position of 9.9, third-best
? Driver Rating of 101.3, fifth-best
? 112 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? 393 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.215 mph, third-fastest
? 2,273 Laps in the Top 15 (80.9%), fourth-most
? 244 Quality Passes, second-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? One win, eight top fives, 15 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 10.9 in 21 races
? Average Running Position of 10.2, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 99.5, seventh-best
? 2,294 Laps in the Top 15 (81.7%), second-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? Three top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 14.9 in 11 races
? Average Running Position of 13.9, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 101.1, sixth-best
? 264 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.209 mph, fourth-fastest
? 1,908 Laps in the Top 15 (67.9%), eighth-most
? 185 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? Four top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 13.0 in 10 races
? Average Running Position of 12.9, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 101.9, fourth-best
? 190 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? 328 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.346 mph, second-fastest
? 2,085 Laps in the Top 15 (74.2%), sixth-most
? 222 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge)
? One top five, three top 10s
? Average finish of 19.5 in 10 races
? Average Running Position of 19.5, 21st-best
? Driver Rating of 73.8, 20th-best
? 325 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
? Three top fives, three top 10s; four poles
? Average finish of 22.9 in 14 races
? Average Running Position of 16.6, 15th-best
? Driver Rating of 84.1, 14th-best
? 1,795 Laps in the Top 15 (63.9%), 11th-most
? 222 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)
? Average finish of 21.4 in five races
? Average Running Position of 19.7, 22nd-best
? Driver Rating of 68.7, 23rd-best

Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
? One top five, one top 10
? Average finish of 19.3 in 10 races
? Average Running Position of 18.5, 18th-best
? Driver Rating of 75.8, 18th-best

OTHER PHOENIX HIGHLIGHTS
? Alan Kulwicki won the inaugural race at Phoenix in 1988.
? There have been 19 different race winners, led by Jimmie Johnson, with three. Mark Martin ended Johnson’s streak with his win in the spring.
? The race has been won from the pole three times: Jeff Gordon (spring 2007), Jimmie Johnson (fall 2008) and Mark Martin (spring 2009).
? The race has been won from a top-10 starting position in 13 of 26 events.
? Mark Martin has 10 top-five finishes, more than any other driver. Martin (9.0 average finish) is one of two active drivers who average a top-10 finish. Jimmie Johnson (5.4) is the other. Alan Kulwicki (5.2) leads all drivers in average finish at Phoenix.
? Five of the last six races have ended with a margin of victory under one second.
? Jimmie Johnson leads the points standings by 73 points over Mark Martin with two races remaining. The largest points deficit overcome with two races remaining was 85 by Alan Kulwicki in 1992.

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