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Homestead-Miami Fantasy Forecast

HOMESTEAD-MIAMI SPEEDWAY
FORD 400
Sunday, November 22, 2009 in Homestead, FL

The 2009 Sprint Cup Champion will be crowned this weekend following Sunday’s running of the Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Drivers will make 267 laps around this variable banked, 1.5 mile oval. This track was reconfigured in 2003, becoming a very fast, very competitive, 3-groove speedway. The progressively banked turns have 18 degrees of banking in the low groove, 19 in the middle, and 20 degrees up top. It’s shaping up to be a thrilling finale.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers’ success at this track and other medium-banked 1.5-mile ovals, including Las Vegas, Joliet and Kansas, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing. I also factor in key driver stats from their most recent runs at Miami.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 11 Denny Hamlin
2) 48 Jimmie Johnson
3) 24 Jeff Gordon
4) 99 Carl Edwards
5) 5 Mark Martin
6) 9 Kasey Kahne
7) 16 Greg Biffle
8) 33 Clint Bowyer
9) 18 Kyle Busch
10) 29 Kevin Harvick
11) 26 Jamie McMurray
12) 14 Tony Stewart
13) 31 Jeff Burton
14) 1 Martin Truex Jr.
15) 00 David Reutimann
16) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
17) 2 Kurt Busch
18) 17 Matt Kenseth
19) 20 Joey Logano
20) 39 Ryan Newman
21) 83 Brian Vickers
22) 07 Casey Mears
23) 44 A.J. Allmendinger
24) 47 Marcos Ambrose
25) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.

JIMMIE JOHNSON
Johnson needs to finish 25th or better in Sunday’s Ford 400 to become only the first driver to win four consecutive championships. Johnson now leads second-place Mark Martin by 108 points. Even if Martin were to win and lead the most laps on Sunday – a 195-point day – Johnson would clinch with that 25th-place finish. The clinch scenarios change if Johnson leads laps. If he leads at least one lap, Johnson will clinch with at least a 27th-place finish. If he leads the most laps Sunday, he needs at least a 28th-place finish.

A phenomenal Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup has put Johnson in this position. Over the nine races, Johnson has four wins, six top fives, eight top 10s, an average finish of 7.0 and a Driver Rating of 117.2. It is the third Chase in which Johnson has won four races. He also did it in 2004 and 2007.

MARK MARTIN
The statistics don’t bode well for a Mark Martin comeback, but anything can happen. Since the current points structure was implemented in 1975, the largest deficit ever overcome in the final race was 30 points by Alan Kulwicki over Davey Allison in 1992. So, clearly, the 108-point gap to Johnson seems daunting – but not impossible. Martin has gained more than 108 points on Jimmie Johnson in a single race nine times their 266-race head-to-head career – including once at Homestead. Plus, Johnson has finished worse than 25th 47 times in his 290-race career.

JEFF GORDON
Though Jeff Gordon will be out of the championship hunt as soon as Jimmie Johnson starts on Sunday, the four-time series champion is chasing history of his own. If Gordon wins Sunday, he will have won at every track at which he ever competed – going 24-for-24. Gordon has won at 21 of the 22 tracks on the current schedule, as well as at Rockingham and North Wilkesboro which are no longer on the schedule.

TOP 35 BATTLE
A race within a race will undoubtedly play out this weekend, as teams around the all-important top 35 bubble look to lock up guaranteed starting spots for next season. All teams in the top 35 in owners points after Homestead are guaranteed spots in the field for the first five races of 2009. Currently, the No. 34 Chevrolet driven by John Andretti holds the 35th position, 114 points ahead of the No. 82 of Scott Speed in 36th-place.

SELECTED HOMESTEAD-MIAMI DRIVER STATS
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? Two top fives, two top 10s
? Average finish of 13.0 in four races
? Average Running Position of 15.7, 15th-best
? Driver Rating of 87.6, 11th-best
? 38 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? 283 Green Flag Passes, third-most
? 637 Laps in the Top 15 (59.6%), ninth-most
? 153 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Two top fives, five top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 13.6 in eight races
? Average Running Position of 15.7, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 87.2, 13th-best
? 238 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
? 723 Laps in the Top 15 (67.6%), sixth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Five top fives, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 9.9 in 10 races
? Average Running Position of 13.6, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 92.6, seventh-best
? 51 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? 287 Green Flag Passes, second-most
? 669 Laps in the Top 15 (62.6%), seventh-most
? 173 Quality Passes, second-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? One win, three top fives, four top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 6.4 in five races
? Series-best Average Running Position of 7.3
? Series-best Driver Rating of 117.2
? Series-high 111 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 164.223 mph
? Series-high 951 Laps in the Top 15 (89.0%)
? 149 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 Kellogg’s/CARQUEST Chevrolet)
? Four top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 12.0 in nine races
? Average Running Position of 12.5, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 91.6, eighth-best
? 24 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 163.600 mph, seventh-fastest

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge)
? One top five, two top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 17.6 in five races
? Average Running Position of 12.8, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 91.3, ninth-best
? 64 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? 242 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
? 118 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? Three wins, three top fives, three top 10s
? Average finish of 13.4 in seven races
? Average Running Position of 12.3, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 103.0, fourth-best
? 88 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 232 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 164.060 mph, third-fastest
? 746 Laps in the Top 15 (69.8%), fifth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Two wins, three top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 11.9 in 10 races
? Average Running Position of 13.4, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 88.1, 10th-best
? 45 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 779 Laps in the Top 15 (72.9%), third-most
? 155 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)
? Average finish of 22.0 in three races
? Average Running Position of 16.5, 17th-best
? Driver Rating of 76.2, 20th-best
? 128 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? One win, three top fives, three top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 21.5 in eight races
? Average Running Position of 29.0, 36th-best
? Driver Rating of 63.4, 29th-best
? 45 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
? Two top 10s
? Average finish of 20.3 in seven races
? Average Running Position of 15.7, 14th-best
? Driver Rating of 80.3, 16th-best
? 107 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
? Average finish of 31.7 in six races
? Average Running Position of 33.4, 38th-best
? Driver Rating of 46.0, 38th-best

OTHER HOMESTEAD-MIAMI HIGHLIGHTS
? Groundbreaking for Homestead-Miami Dade Motorsports Complex began in 1993.
? The original configuration was a four-turn, rectangular oval based on Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s layout.
? In the summer of 1997, a reconfiguration project changed the turns from a quad-oval to a traditional, continuous-turn oval.
? The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Homestead was held on Nov. 14, 1999, won by Tony Stewart.
? 2002 was the first season of the Championship Weekend at Homestead, with all three of NASCAR’s national series holding their season finale at the same track.
? The track was reconfigured prior to the 2003 race. The banking in the turns was changed to a graduated tri-level culminating in a 20-degree banking on the outer level. Lights were also added for night racing.
? Five drivers have competed in all nine Homestead races: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte, Elliott Sadler and Tony Stewart.
? There have been nine different pole winners. Kurt Busch (2002 and 2004) is the only multiple pole winner there.
? There have been seven different race winners, led by Greg Biffle with three.
? Jack Roush has won six races, most among owners.
? The race has been won from the pole twice: Bill Elliott (2001) and Kurt Busch (2002).
? The race has been won from a top-10 starting position eight of 10 times.
? Three active drivers have averaged a top-10 finish: Carl Edwards (6.4), Jeff Gordon (9.9) and Kevin Harvick (9.1).
? Four of the last five races have ended with a margin of victory under one second.

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