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Kansas Fantasy Forecast

KANSAS SPEEDWAY

Price Chopper 400
Sunday, October 4, 2009 in Kansas City, KS

The Price Chopper 400 is on tap this weekend at Kansas Speedway. This track joined the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series schedule in 2001, virtually tying it with Chicagoland Speedway as the youngest track on the circuit. Cup drivers will make their only appearance of the year there this Sunday, circling the 15-degree, 1.5-mile, cookie cutter tri-oval 267 times.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers? success at this track and similar tracks such as Chicagoland Speedway, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing. I also factor in key driver stats from their most recent runs at Kansas.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 5 Mark Martin
3) 24 Jeff Gordon
4) 83 Brian Vickers
5) 16 Greg Biffle
6) 29 Kevin Harvick
7) 14 Tony Stewart
8) 11 Denny Hamlin
9) 9 Kasey Kahne
10) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
11) 33 Clint Bowyer
12) 39 Ryan Newman
13) 99 Carl Edwards
14) 18 Kyle Busch
15) 2 Kurt Busch
16) 17 Matt Kenseth
17) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
18) 1 Martin Truex Jr.
19) 07 Casey Mears
20) 00 David Reutimann
21) 44 A.J. Allmendinger
22) 19 Elliott Sadler
23) 31 Jeff Burton
24) 6 David Ragan
25) 47 Marcos Ambrose

It?s a classic slugfest ongoing at the top of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. Two weeks into the 2009 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, Mark Martin vs. Jimmie Johnson is a battle for the ages ? literally. On one side you have a 50-year-old, old-school veteran from the Southeast who is a four-time series championship runner-up. On the other side you have a 34-year-old new-era driver from California who is trying to win the championship for the fourth time in a row.

Johnson won this past weekend at Dover and for his rivals, starting with Martin, it was ominous. Johnson?s performance looked remarkably like the late-season form he has displayed in his three previous championship seasons. Martin, meanwhile, applied the brakes to those seeking to go ahead and concede Johnson a fourth-straight title. After winning the first Chase race at New Hampshire, Martin ran a strong second to Johnson at Dover. By doing so, he retained the lead in the series standings by 10 points.

Johnson?s success is directly related to how well he has performed during the Chase over the last three years. Since the first Chase in 2004, Johnson has posted a series-leading 15 Chase race wins. Eight of those came during his championship seasons of 2005-07. And one of those eight came last year at Kansas when Johnson started on the pole and led 124 laps before capturing the checkered flag. He has made seven starts at Kansas, posting one win, two top fives, five top 10s and three poles.

SELECTED KANSAS DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? One win, two top fives, five top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 10.4 in seven races
? Average Running Position of 6.4, second-best
? Series-best Driver Rating of 123.1
? Series-high 156 Fastest Laps Run
? 243 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 162.512 mph
? 929 Laps in the Top 15 (91.9%), second-most
? Series-high 153 Quality Passes

Mark Martin (No. 5 Kellogg’s/CARQUEST Chevrolet)
? One win, two top fives, three top 10s
? Average finish of 13.1 in eight races
? Average Running Position of 11.9, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 99.4, fifth-best
? 674 Laps in the Top 15 (66.7%), eighth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Two wins, five top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 9.8 in eight races
? Average Running Position of 10.1, third-best
? Driver Rating of 103.0, third-best
? 27 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 162.022 mph, third-fastest
? 861 Laps in the Top 15 (85.2%), third-most
? 142 Quality Passes, third-most

Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
? One top 10
? Average finish of 13.3 in four races
? Average Running Position of 15.2, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 84.1, 14th-best
? 108 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? One win, four top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 9.9 in seven races
? Series-best Average Running Position of 6.4
? Driver Rating of 117.4, second-best
? 88 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 162.250 mph, second-fastest
? Series-high 962 Laps in the Top 15 (95.2%)
? 141 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Burger King Chevrolet)
? One win, three top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 14.8 in eight races
? Average Running Position of 12.9, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 91.3, ninth-best
? 30 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 161.444 mph, seventh-fastest
? 685 Laps in the Top 15 (67.8%), fourth-most
? 123 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? Average finish of 22.5 in four races
? Average Running Position of 21.1, 24th-best
? Driver Rating of 74.8, 21st-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 161.227 mph, 12th-fastest

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge)
? One top 10; one pole
? Average finish of 18.8 in five races
? Average Running Position of 17.1, 17th-best
? Driver Rating of 79.4, 17th-best
? 233 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most

Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Polaroid Chevrolet)
? Average finish of 24.0 in two races
? Average Running Position of 26.4, 34th-best
? Driver Rating of 53.3, 37th-best

Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
? One win, three top fives, three top 10s
? Average finish of 18.0 in eight races
? Average Running Position of 27.3, 38th-best
? Driver Rating of 51.6, 38th-best
? 262 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? Two top fives, three top 10s
? Average finish of 14.0 in five races
? Average Running Position of 12.6, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 95.8, seventh-best
? 69 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 161.452 mph, sixth-fastest
? 681 Laps in the Top 15 (67.4%), sixth-most
? 129 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? Two top 10s
? Average finish of 20.8 in eight races
? Average Running Position of 20.0, 20th-best
? Driver Rating of 80.3, 16th-best
? 45 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 247 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most

OTHER KANSAS HIGHLIGHTS
? There have been eight NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Kansas since the track opened in 2001.
? Jeff Gordon won the first two NASCAR Sprint Cup races.
? Six different drivers have won poles, led by Jimmie Johnson with two.
? Seven different drivers have posted victories, led by Jeff Gordon (two).
? There have been six different winners in the last six races at Kansas Speedway.
? Five of the eight races have been won from a top-10 start.
? Two drivers have won from the pole: Joe Nemechek in 2004 and Jimmie Johnson last season.
? Three drivers with more than one start have averaged a top-10 finish: Greg Biffle (9.9), Clint Bowyer (7.7) and Jeff Gordon (9.8).
? Three of the last four races that ended under green had a margin of victory under one second.

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