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California Fantasy Forecast

AUTO CLUB SPEEDWAY, FONTANA, CA
Pepsi 500
Sunday, October 11, 2009 in Fontana, CA

NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers head to Auto Club Speedway in Fontana this weekend for the running of the Pepsi 500. This classic D-shaped oval stretches two miles in length, with 14 degrees of banking on the corners and 11 degrees on the sweeping front stretch. Its 75-foot wide track plus 15 foot apron provides ample room for passing. Drivers will race 250 laps en route to the checkered flag.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers? success at this track and its sister track Michigan, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing. I also factor in key driver stats from their most recent runs at Fontana.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 99 Carl Edwards
3) 24 Jeff Gordon
4) 17 Matt Kenseth
5) 18 Kyle Busch
6) 11 Denny Hamlin
7) 5 Mark Martin
8) 16 Greg Biffle
9) 14 Tony Stewart
10) 83 Brian Vickers
11) 9 Kasey Kahne
12) 2 Kurt Busch
13) 33 Clint Bowyer
14) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
15) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
16) 29 Kevin Harvick
17) 31 Jeff Burton
18) 00 David Reutimann
19) 6 David Ragan
20) 39 Ryan Newman
21) 1 Martin Truex Jr.
22) 26 Jamie McMurray
23) 07 Casey Mears
24) 44 A.J. Allmendinger
25) 19 Elliott Sadler

Forty-five cars appear on the entry list for Auto Club Speedway?s Pepsi 500 this weekend. Picking a clear-cut winner might be a problem. And that means nothing less than three hours of excitement at Fontana?s Inaugural Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup race.

Ten drivers that have entered the race have won at Auto Club Speedway. Those drivers include Carl Edwards, Elliott Sadler, Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, Mark Martin and most recently, February?s winner Matt Kenseth.

And those in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup who haven?t won at Auto Club Speedway aren?t complete pushovers. Tony Stewart has three top fives and eight top 10s, Denny Hamlin has one top five and three top 10s, Ryan Newman has two top fives, four top 10s and won a pole in 2002, Brian Vickers has one top five, four top 10s and two poles. Although Juan Pablo Montoya hasn?t fared too well at ACS (average finish of 22 in five races), who can argue that his five top fives and 15 top 10s this year don?t put him in the ?one to watch? category?

Although it?s anybody?s race, perhaps the sentimental favorite might be California native Jimmie Johnson. Johnson?s win in this race last year not only led him to his third consecutive NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Championship (?06, ?07 & ?08), an honor he shares with Cale Yarborough (?76, ?77 & ?78), but Johnson also became the first Cup driver to win the pole and the Pepsi 500 race. A win this weekend keeps him in prime position to win his 4th straight title.

But don?t count out Matt Kenseth, who has a chance to sweep Auto Club Speedway?s two races this season. Kenseth tied Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson for a series high most wins at Fontana with three after his win there earlier this season. If Kenseth does win, he would be the first driver not in this season?s Chase to win a Chase race, which would make him the ?The Spoiler.? In addition, it would be his first ever sweep at a track in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series competition.

SELECTED FONTANA DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet)
? Three wins, eight top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 6.2 in 13 races
? Series-best Average Running Position of 5.9
? Series-best Driver Rating of 119.4
? Series-high 300 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 171.960 mph
? Series-high 2,130 Laps in the Top 15 (94.5%)
? 425 Quality Passes, third-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? One win, six top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 6.7 in 10 races
? Average Running Position of 10.8, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 105.0, fourth-best
? 139 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.512 mph, third-fastest
? 1,783 Laps in the Top 15 (79.1%), fourth-most
? 390 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Three wins, nine top fives, nine top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 10.9 in 18 races
? Average Running Position of 9.8, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 98.4, sixth-best
? 148 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? 677 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.232 mph, sixth-fastest
? 1,740 Laps in the Top 15 (77.2%), fifth-most
? 449 Quality Passes, second-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? One top five, three top 10s
? Average finish of 14.0 in seven races
? Average Running Position of 14.9, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 90.0, 11th-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 170.924 mph, 10th-fastest

Mark Martin (No. 5 Kellogg’s/CARQUEST Chevrolet)
? One win, four top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 14.9 in 16 races
? Average Running Position of 11.7, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 94.9, ninth-best
? 59 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.103 mph, eighth-fastest
? 1,240 Laps in the Top 15 (70.7%), 13th-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M/Sherwin Williams Ford)
? One win, four top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 17.1 in 13 races
? Average Running Position of 11.1, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 100.8, fifth-best
? 206 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.393 mph, fifth-fastest
? 1,583 Laps in the Top 15 (70.2%), seventh-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Three top fives, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 15.9 in 16 races
? Average Running Position of 10.8, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 98.2, seventh-best
? 132 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.221 mph, seventh-fastest
? 1,736 Laps in the Top 15 (77.0%), sixth-most
? 421 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
? One top five, four top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 16.0 in 11 races
? Average Running Position of 16.3, 15th-best
? Driver Rating of 85.8, 13th-best
? 674 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
? 1,256 Laps in the Top 15 (55.7%), 12th-most
? 343 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge)
? One win, three top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 13.0 in 11 races
? Average Running Position of 13.6, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 97.3, eighth-best
? 96 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? 647 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.072 mph, ninth-fastest
? 1,486 Laps in the Top 15 (65.9%), 10th-most
? 400 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? One win, four top fives, six top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 12.9 in 14 races
? Average Running Position of 13.9, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 93.1, 10th-best
? 85 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? 626 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? 1,565 Laps in the Top 15 (69.4%), eighth-most
? 378 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)
? Average finish of 22.0 in five races
? Average Running Position of 20.1, 21st-best
? Driver Rating of 68.4, 23rd-best

Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
? Two top fives, four top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 19.2 in 13 races
? Average Running Position of 18.5, 18th-best
? Driver Rating of 75.1, 17th-best
? 720 Green Flag Passes, second-most

FONTANA HIGHLIGHTS
? Fontana?s famed speedway ran its first NASCAR Sprint Cup in June 1997, won by Jeff Gordon.
? The track name was changed from California Speedway to Auto Club Speedway in February 2008.
? Four drivers have competed in all 18 races: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte and Joe Nemechek.
? There have been 12 different pole winners, led by Kurt Busch (three). Brian Vickers and Jeff Gordon each have two poles.
? 12 different drivers have posted victories. Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth each have won three races.
? Rick Hendrick has won seven races, more than any other car owner.
? Nine of the 18 races were won from starting positions outside the top 10; only one has been won from the pole (Jimmie Johnson in 2008).
? Matt Kenseth won the 2006 spring race from the 31st starting position, the deepest in the field that a race winner has started.
? Four active drivers have averaged a top-10 finish: Kyle Busch (9.2), Carl Edwards (6.7), Jimmie Johnson (6.2) and Matt Kenseth (9.0).
? Kyle Busch won his first NASCAR Sprint Cup pole (2/05) and first race (9/05) at Auto Club Speedway.

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