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Dover Fantasy Forecast

DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY
AAA 400
Sunday, September 27, 2009 in Dover, Delaware

This Sunday, NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers make their second of two annual visits to ?The Monster Mile? in Dover Delaware for round two of the ten-race 2009 Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship. Dover?s high-banked (24 degrees) one-mile concrete racing surface has been likened to racing in a giant cereal bowl. The King Richard Petty won the first Cup series race at Dover International Speedway in 1969, and this track has been thrilling fans with exciting action-packed racing ever since.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers? success at this track over the last several years, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing. I also factor in key driver stats from their most recent runs at Dover.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 16 Greg Biffle
2) 5 Mark Martin
3) 99 Carl Edwards
4) 48 Jimmie Johnson
5) 17 Matt Kenseth
6) 18 Kyle Busch
7) 39 Ryan Newman
8) 24 Jeff Gordon
9) 11 Denny Hamlin
10) 31 Jeff Burton
11) 33 Clint Bowyer
12) 2 Kurt Busch
13) 1 Martin Truex Jr.
14) 00 David Reutimann
15) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
16) 29 Kevin Harvick
17) 26 Jamie McMurray
18) 9 Kasey Kahne
19) 14 Tony Stewart
20) 07 Casey Mears
21) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
22) 83 Brian Vickers
23) 47 Marcos Ambrose
24) 77 Sam Hornish Jr.
25) 43 Reed Sorenson

SELECTED DOVER DRIVER STATS
Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? Two wins, six top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 10.6
? Series-best Average Running Position of 6.6
? Series-best Driver Rating of 117.0
? Series-high 372 Fastest Laps Run
? 325 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 141.745 mph
? Series-high 3,352 Laps in the Top 15 (93.0%)
? 276 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), second-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 Kellogg?s/CARQUEST Chevrolet)
? Four wins, 21 top fives, 29 top 10s; four poles
? Average finish of 12.7
? Average Running Position of 9.7, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 100.6, fifth-best
? 226 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 2,776 Laps in the Top 15 (77.0%), fifth-most
? 194 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? One win, five top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 7.6
? Average Running Position of 9.3, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 106.6, fourth-best
? 287 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 141.431 mph, fifth-fastest
? 2,733 Laps in the Top 15 (75.8%), sixth-most
? 262 Quality Passes, third-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe?s Chevrolet)
? Four wins, six top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 10.4
? Average Running Position of 10.5, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 108.2, third-best
? 320 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 356 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
? 2,806 Laps in the Top 15 (77.9%), fourth-most
? 191 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
? Three wins, six top fives, nine top 10s; four poles
? Average finish of 10.3
? Average Running Position of 8.8, third-best
? Driver Rating of 98.4, seventh-best
? 85 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 141.089 mph, 11th-fastest
? 3,167 Laps in the Top 15 (87.9%), third-most
? 189 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Four wins, 14 top fives, 20 top 10s; four poles
? Average finish of 12.4
? Average Running Position of 15.3, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 87.7, 12th-best

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? One top five, two top 10s
? Average finish of 25.6 in seven races
? Has led 61 laps
? Average Running Position of 22.1, 25th-best
? Driver Rating of 74.6, 16fth-best

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? Three top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 20.5
? Average Running Position of 12.3, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 93.5, ninth-best
? 119 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? 335 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 141.112 mph, ninth-fastest
? 2,417 Laps in the Top 15 (67.1%), ninth-most
? 195 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)
? One top 10
? Average finish of 24.4 in five races
? Has led three laps
? Average Running Position of 20.4, 19th-best
? Driver Rating of 70.1, 23rd-best

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge)
? Two top 10s
? Average finish of 24.1 in 11 races
? Has led 64 laps
? Average Running Position of 20.7, 22nd-best
? Driver Rating of 70.3, 21st-best

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Two wins, 10 top fives, 13 top 10s
? Average finish of 11.7 in 21 races
? Has led 1,067 laps
? Average Running Position of 22.7, 26th-best
? Driver Rating of 69.2, 24th-best

Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
? One top 10
? Average finish of 21.5 in 11 races
? Has led seven laps
? Average Running Position of 20.6, 20th-best
? Driver Rating of 70.1, 22nd-best

OTHER ?MONSTER MILE? HIGHLIGHTS
? The official opening of Dover International Speedway, then called Dover Downs International Speedway, was in 1969.
? The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held on July 6, 1969, won by Richard Petty.
? The track surface was changed to concrete in 1995.
? The track name was changed to Dover International Speedway in 2002.
? Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon and Ryan Newman lead all active drivers, each with four poles.
? Bill Elliott, Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin and Jimmie Johnson lead all active drivers, each with four victories.
? Hendrick Motorsports has 11 wins, more than any other car owner.
? 47 races at Dover have been won from a top-five starting position; 17 races have been won from a starting position outside the top 10.
? In his Dover win earlier this season, Jimmie Johnson scored a perfect Driver Rating of 150.0. He led 298 laps in May.
? Several active drivers had their first start at Dover, including Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth, Bobby Labonte, David Ragan and Tony Raines.
? Three of the last four races have ended with a margin of victory under one second.

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