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New Hampshire Fantasy Forecast

NEW HAMPSHIRE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Sylvania 300
Sunday, September 20, 2009 in Loudon, NH

This Sunday, NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers make their second of two annual visits to ?The Magic Mile? in Loudon, New Hampshire for the Sylvania 300. Drivers will make 300 laps around this relatively flat, 1.058-mile track. This track opened in 1990, ran its first Cup series race in 1993, and added a second Cup race in 1997 when North Wilkesboro Speedway was dropped from the schedule. In 2002, the speedway?s corners were modified to progressive banking, going from 4 degrees at the bottom to 12 degrees at the top. Then in 2003, an incident with Dale Jarrett stuck on the main straightaway while the rest of the field raced around him back to the caution flag proved to be the final straw in NASCAR?s decision to implement the ?lucky dog? rule.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers? success at this track and other similar tracks such as Phoenix and Richmond, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing. I also factor in key driver stats from their most recent runs at Loudon.

TOP TWENTY
1) 5 Mark Martin
2) 11 Denny Hamlin
3) 48 Jimmie Johnson
4) 24 Jeff Gordon
5) 2 Kurt Busch
6) 16 Greg Biffle
7) 14 Tony Stewart
8) 18 Kyle Busch
9) 99 Carl Edwards
10) 29 Kevin Harvick
11) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
12) 1 Martin Truex Jr.
13) 31 Jeff Burton
14) 00 David Reutimann
15) 39 Ryan Newman
16) 9 Kasey Kahne
17) 83 Brian Vickers
18) 33 Clint Bowyer
19) 17 Matt Kenseth
20) 77 Sam Hornish Jr.
21) 20 Joey Logano
22) 07 Casey Mears
23) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
24) 43 Reed Sorenson
25) 47 Marcos Ambrose

The Chase is NASCAR?s version of a playoff system and Sunday?s race at New Hampshire is akin to a first-round playoff game. In 2004, the first year of the Chase format, Kurt Busch started the last 10 weeks of the year with a New Hampshire victory. He didn?t win again during the Chase but that Week 1 win proved critical ? he edged Jimmie Johnson for the championship by only eight points.

In 2007, unheralded Clint Bowyer got his first career NASCAR Sprint Cup victory to open the Chase ? and rode that momentum to an eventual third-place finish in the final standings.

Last season, Greg Biffle, Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards finished 1-2-3 at New Hampshire. After the 10-race Chase, the final top three in the standings looked like this: Johnson, Edwards, Biffle.

On the other end of New Hampshire?s history are incidents like Kyle Busch in last season?s first Chase race. Busch came into that Chase as the top seed, winning eight races. Car trouble at NHMS led to a 34th-place finish for Busch. He never recovered and ended the year 10th in points.

SELECTED LOUDON, NEW HAMPSHIRE DRIVER STATS
Mark Martin (No. 5 Kellogg?s/CARQUEST Chevrolet)
? Eight top fives, 13 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 11.1 in 47 races
? Has led 397 laps
? Average Running Position of 11.9, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.4, seventh-best

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? One win, two top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 8.3 in seven races
? Has led 52 laps
? Average Running Position of 10.3, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 100.1, fifth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 124.037 mph, fourth-fastest
? 1,691 Laps in the Top 15 (81.9%), eighth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe?s Chevrolet)
? Two wins, four top fives, 10 tops 10s
? Average finish of 9.9 in 15 races
? Has led 274 laps
? Average Running Position of 10.1, third-best
? Driver Rating of 105.3, third-best
? 206 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.976 mph, fifth-fastest
? 2,240 Laps in the Top 15 (84.1%), second-most
? 277 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Three wins, 13 fives, 16 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 11.3 in 29 races
? Has led 1,205 laps
? Series-best Average Running Position of 7.0
? Driver Rating of 109.4, second-best
? 240 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 124.380 mph, second-fastest
? Series-high 2,413 Laps in the Top 15 (90.5%)

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? Three wins, six top fives, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 14.8 in 17 races
? Has led 326 laps
? Driver Rating of 88.1, 14th-best
? Average Running Position of 14.6, 12th-best

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? One win, four top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 18.1
? Has led 85 laps
? Average Running Position of 14.6, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 88.8, 13th-best
? 73 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Two wins, 11 top fives, 13 top 10s
? Average finish of 12.3 in 21 races
? Has led 976 laps
? Average Running Position of 9.5, second-best
? Series-best Driver Rating of 115.8
? Series-high 253 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 124.397 mph
? 2,130 Laps in the Top 15 (79.9%), third-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? Two top fives
? Average finish of 13.5
? Has led 63 laps
? Driver Rating of 87.2, 15th-best
? Average Running Position of 14.5, 10th-best

Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
? Two wins, five top fives, nine top 10s; four poles
? Average finish of 14.2 in 15 races
? Has led 537 laps
? Driver Rating of 90.3, 10th-best
? 96 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 1,696 Laps in the Top 15 (63.6%), seventh-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge)
? One top five, five top 10s
? Average finish of 16.0
? Has led 49 laps
? Driver Rating of 82.3, 17th-best

Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
? One top five; one pole
? Average finish of 23.1 in 10 races
? Has led 53 laps
? Driver Rating of 79.5, 19th-best

Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)
? Average finish of 20.6 in five races
? Has led six races
? Driver Rating of 74.4, 20th-best

OTHER ?MAGIC MILE? HIGHLIGHTS
? The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held on July 11, 1993, won by Rusty Wallace.
? There have been 29 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Loudon, and four drivers have competed in all 29 races: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte and Joe Nemechek.
? There have been 15 different pole winners, led by Ryan Newman (four).
? 19 different drivers have posted victories, led by Jeff Burton (four).
? In June, Joey Logano became the all-time youngest NASCAR Sprint Cup race winner at 19 years, one month and four days.
? Jimmie Johnson (2003) and Kurt Busch (2004) are the only drivers that have posted season sweeps. Those are also the only back-to-back winners.
? Roush Fenway Racing has won seven races, more than any other organization.
? The last race winner to win from the pole was Clint Bowyer in 2007.
? There have been nine consecutive different race winners.
? Jeff Burton led all 300 laps raced in the 2000 fall race.

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