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Charlotte Fantasy Forecast

CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY
Bank of America 500
Saturday, October 16, 2010 in Concord, NC

The 2010 edition of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup reaches its halfway point at Charlotte Motor Speedway this Saturday night. The race features 334 laps of high-speed action on this 24 degree, 1.5-mile quad-oval. Many NASCAR drivers can call this speedway their home track, as most teams house their base operations in the greater Charlotte area. So when the traveling bands of pit crews and race drivers return home, they hang their helmets in Charlotte.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on a statistical formula that includes drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 2 Kurt Busch
3) 18 Kyle Busch
4) 24 Jeff Gordon
5) 9 Kasey Kahne
6) 14 Tony Stewart
7) 11 Denny Hamlin
8) 17 Matt Kenseth
9) 39 Ryan Newman
10) 5 Mark Martin
11) 29 Kevin Harvick
12) 33 Clint Bowyer
13) 31 Jeff Burton
14) 16 Greg Biffle
15) 00 David Reutimann
16) 20 Joey Logano
17) 99 Carl Edwards
18) 1 Jamie McMurray
19) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
20) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
21) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
22) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
23) 98 Paul Menard
24) 12 Brad Keselowski
25) 78 Regan Smith

CHARLOTTE DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Six wins, nine top fives, 13 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 10.2 in 18 races
? Series-best Average Running Position of 7.8
? Series-best Driver Rating of 115.3
? Series-high 386 Fastest Laps Run
? 689 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 175.794 mph
? Series-high 3,361 Laps in the Top 15 (86.1%)
? 533 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), second-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Operation Home Front/Miller Lite Dodge)
? One win, four top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 20.0 in 20 races
? Average Running Position of 16.7, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 87.6, 10th-best
? 161 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 2,235 Laps in the Top 15 (57.3%), eighth-most
? 368 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? Four top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 17.8 in 13 races
? Average Running Position of 10.9, third-best
? Driver Rating of 104.9, second-best
? 261 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? 700 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 175.557 mph, second-fastest
? 3,005 Laps in the Top 15 (77.0%), second-most
? Series-high 548 Quality Passes

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Five wins, 16 top fives, 20 top 10s; seven poles
? Average finish of 15.4 in 35 races
? Average Running Position of 16.8, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 89.1, sixth-best
? 147 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 174.860 mph, seventh-fastest
? 2,154 Laps in the Top 15 (55.2%), 10th-most
? 341 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? One win, six top fives, 11 top 10s
? Average finish of 13.4 in 23 races
? Average Running Position of 15.9, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 84.5, 12th-best
? 143 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? 720 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 174.912 mph, fifth-fastest
? 2,226 Laps in the Top 15 (57.0%), ninth-most
? 386 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Ground Toyota)
? Three top 10s
? Average finish of 18.5 in 10 races
? Average Running Position of 15.9, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 81.5, 14th-best
? 81 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
? 2,103 Laps in the Top 15 (60.1%), 11th-most
? 341 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Black Ford)
? One win, six top fives, 11 top 10s
? Average finish of 15.4 in 22 races
? Average Running Position of 16.3, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 89.1, sixth-best
? 125 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? 2,311 Laps in the Top 15 (59.2%), sixth-most
? 376 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? One top five, three top 10s
? Average finish of 20.7 in 19 races
? Average Running Position of 22.5, 27th-best
? Driver Rating of 67.1, 26th-best
? 730 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet)
? One top five, three top 10s
? Average finish of 17.7 in nine races
? Average Running Position of 18.4, 17th-best
? Driver Rating of 79.6, 16th-best

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? Three wins, eight top fives, 15 top 10s
? Average finish of 15.1 in 33 races
? Average Running Position of 14.4, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 88.4, eighth-best
? 89 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? 733 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 174.634 mph, 10th-fastest
? 2,459 Laps in the Top 15 (63.0%), fifth-most
? 455 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 SCOTCH BLUE Ford)
? Two top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 19.1 in 15 races
? Average Running Position of 16.4, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 85.5, 11th-best
? 118 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 2,269 Laps in the Top 15 (58.1%), seventh-most
? 352 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? Four top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 13.2 in 11 races
? Average Running Position of 17.8, 15th-best
? Driver Rating of 84.0, 13th-best
? Series-high 820 Green Flag Passes
? 1,845 Laps in the Top 15 (47.3%), 13th-most
? 337 Quality Passes, 12th-most

CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
? Joe Lee Johnson won the first race, in 1960.
? Ryan Newman leads all active drivers in poles, with nine. Jeff Gordon has seven.
? 43 drivers have won races, led by Bobby Allison, Darrell Waltrip and Jimmie Johnson, with six each.
? Kurt Busch won his first Charlotte race in May, at the Coca-Cola 600. Also the NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race winner, Busch looks to become the first driver to sweep the All-Star Race, the Coke 600 and the Bank of America 500 in the same season.
? There have been 13 back-to-back victories, including three consecutive by Fred Lorenzen (fall 1964 and both 1965) and four straight by Jimmie Johnson (both in 2004 and 2005).
? 14 races have been won from the pole, the last by Jimmie Johnson last October.
? A number of active drivers earned their first win at CMS: Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Bobby Labonte, Jamie McMurray, Casey Mears and David Reutimann. Inactive drivers David Pearson, Buddy Baker and Charlie Glotzbach also got their first series win at Charlotte.

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