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California Fantasy Forecast

AUTO CLUB SPEEDWAY
Pepsi Max 400
Sunday, October 10, 2010 in Fontana, CA

NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers head to Auto Club Speedway in Fontana this weekend for the running of the Pepsi Max 400. This classic D-shaped oval stretches two miles in length, with 14 degrees of banking on the corners and 11 degrees on the sweeping front stretch. Its 75-foot wide track plus 15 foot apron provides ample room for passing. Drivers will race 250 laps en route to the checkered flag.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on a statistical formula that includes drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 99 Carl Edwards
3) 24 Jeff Gordon
4) 29 Kevin Harvick
5) 17 Matt Kenseth
6) 11 Denny Hamlin
7) 2 Kurt Busch
8) 18 Kyle Busch
9) 14 Tony Stewart
10) 16 Greg Biffle
11) 33 Clint Bowyer
12) 31 Jeff Burton
13) 5 Mark Martin
14) 20 Joey Logano
15) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
16) 9 Kasey Kahne
17) 39 Ryan Newman
18) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
19) 1 Jamie McMurray
20) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
21) 00 David Reutimann
22) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
23) 6 David Ragan
24) 47 Marcos Ambrose
25) 77 Sam Hornish Jr.

FONTANA DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s/Johns Manville Chevrolet)
? Five wins, 10 top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 5.5 in 15 races
? Series-best Average Running Position of 5.3
? Series-best Driver Rating of 124.0
? Series-high 413 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 172.095 mph
? Series-high 2,623 Laps in the Top 15 (95.2%)
? 547 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), sixth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? One win, six top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 7.2 in 12 races
? Average Running Position of 11.1, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 102.3, fourth-best
? 825 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.450 mph, second-fastest
? 2,148 Laps in the Top 15 (78.0%), fourth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Three wins, 10 top fives, 10 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 11.0 in 20 races
? Average Running Position of 9.4, third-best
? Driver Rating of 99.0, sixth-best
? 875 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.340 mph, sixth-fastest
? 2,168 Laps in the Top 15 (78.7%), third-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? Two top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 17.7 in 16 races
? Average Running Position of 12.9, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 91.5, 11th-best
? 821 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 170.951 mph, 11th-fastest
? 1,963 Laps in the Top 15 (71.3%), ninth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Black Ford)
? Three wins, seven top fives, 12 top 10s
? Average finish of 9.1 in 17 races
? Average Running Position of 9.2, second-best
? Driver Rating of 108.3, second-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.435 mph, third-fastest
? 2,236 Laps in the Top 15 (81.2%), second-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? One top five, three top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 18.2 in nine races
? Average Running Position of 15.2, 14th-best
? Driver Rating of 87.6, 12th-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 170.958 mph, 10th-fastest
? 381 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Operation Home Front/Miller Lite Dodge)
? One win, four top fives, eight top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 12.2 in 16 races
? Average Running Position of 13.2, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 94.2, ninth-best
? 838 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.020 mph, ninth-fastest
? 2,012 Laps in the Top 15 (73.0%), sixth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? One win, four top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 10.8 in 12 races
? Average Running Position of 10.6, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 102.4, third-best
? 821 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.272 mph, seventh-fastest
? 2,144 Laps in the Top 15 (77.8%), fifth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Four top fives, 10 top 10s
? Average finish of 14.9 in 18 races
? Average Running Position of 11.4, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 96.8, eighth-best
? 825 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.199 mph, eighth-fastest
? 2,009 Laps in the Top 15 (72.9%), seventh-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M/Sherwin Williams Ford)
? One win, four top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 16.8 in 15 races
? Average Running Position of 11.1, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 99.0, seventh-best
? 820 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.358 mph, fourth-fastest
? 1,980 Laps in the Top 15 (71.9%), eighth-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet)
? One top five, five top 10s
? Average finish of 12.0 in nine races
? Average Running Position of 14.7, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 86.8, 13th-best

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? Six top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 16.7 in 20 races
? Average Running Position of 14.3, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 86.7, 14th-best
? Series-high 911 Green Flag Passes
? 1,710 Laps in the Top 15 (62.1%), 12th-most

AUTO CLUB SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
? Four drivers have competed in all 20 races since the track’s first race in 1997: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte and Joe Nemechek.
? There have been 14 different pole winners, led by Kurt Busch (three). Brian Vickers and Jeff Gordon each have two poles.
? Twelve different drivers have posted victories. Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with five wins. Jeff Gordon and Matt Kenseth each have won three races.
? Hendrick Motorsports has won nine races, more than any other team.
? Nine of the 20 races were won from starting positions outside the top 10; only one has been won from the pole (Jimmie Johnson in 2008). The most prolific starting position is third, with three victories.
? Three active drivers have averaged a top-10 finish: Carl Edwards (7.2), Jimmie Johnson (5.5) and Matt Kenseth (9.1).
? Kyle Busch won his first NASCAR Sprint Cup pole (2/05) and first race (9/05) at Auto Club Speedway.
? Jimmie Johnson won his first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at ASC on April 28, 2002.

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