Dover Preview

Will Jimmie Johnson drive the of the #48 to victory again at Dover International Speedway? [Credit: Justin Heiman/Getty Images]

 

by Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann

The Challenger Round of the 2014 Chase for the Sprint Cup comes to an end this Sunday as the Dover International Speedway hosts the AAA 400.

Dover marks the first elimination race of the Chase as when the checkered flag falls, the bottom four Chase drivers in the point standings will be eliminated.  Nicknamed “The Monster Mile,” Dover is a  fast one mile oval with self-cleaning high banks and things happen quickly, meaning it’s very easy to be swept up in someone else’s misfortune.

The Chase field gets narrowed to 12 on Sunday and here are some drivers to watch:

Jimmie Johnson

(Dan Margetta): With 9 wins and 18 top ten finishes in 25 races, Jimmie Johnson has traditionally been the man to beat at Dover. Listed t 4-1 odds this week, his 8.4 average finishing position is by far the best and he also owns the best driver rating at Dover. Johnson won this race a year ago and was the winner here at the last race held earlier in June. Johnson and the #48 team haven’t been scaring anybody on the race track lately, but their stats at Dover on paper should get everyone’s attention. He’s relatively safe to transfer to the next Chase round but Dover is a good place for “six-time” to make a statement with a victory. Besides, someone needs to keep the Penske drivers honest and Jimmie Johnson could very well be the guy to do it.

Jeff Gordon

(John Wiedemann):  In the late 1990’s, Jeff Gordon was the man at Dover International Speedway.  Three straight wins in 1995-1996,solid top fives and leading laps in huge bunches were the norm for the team at their sponsors, DuPont, home track.  The track still produces nice results for Gordon, but his teammate Jimmie Johnson – the guy who inherited Gordon’s championship winning fleet, has become the man at Dover.  Can Gordon return to glory at Dover and best the 48 crew?  Now would be the time to do it.  Johnson has been, well, un-Johnson like and Gordon is running like that kid back in the 90’s.  Gordon, as well as any other driver with hopes on scoring the championship this season needs to kick Johnson now that he is slightly down, because Dover is a track that Johnson use to fire up a run to the finish.

Kyle Busch

DM: The Dover high banks suit Kyle Busch’s fast and all out driving style quite well. He has two wins and 12 top ten finishes in 19 starts which is good enough for the third best driver rating. He has failed to finish four times at Dover including earlier in June where an early crash sent him to a 42^nd place finish. An 8-1 shot to win this weekend, Busch’s season has been somewhat of a roller coaster to date and Dover is the type of event Busch should thrive at provided he can avoid mistakes. If both the driver and team are on top of their game Sunday, Kyle Busch should be a strong contender for the victory. Then again, one minor miscue could send them to disastrous results just as easily. Sunday could set an important tone for Kyle Busch as he enters his toughest round of the Chase.

Kevin Harvick

JW:  Same story, different race track for Kevin Harvick.  Tire issues derailed a strong run at Dover in June where Harvick had driven to the front of the pack and led 24 laps.  So once again, the #4 team returns to a track where they ran great but have some demons to get rid of.  Harvick has been poking the bear, point leader Team Penske, in the past weeks and the best way to get under their skin is to take a win away from them.  After getting out-foxed in restarts by Joey Logano last weekend, Harvick could turn the tables and be the driver out-foxing the competition at Dover.  To accomplish that, Harvick needs to get the lead, which is a probability, and then he needs to stay up front without issues, and there lies the question.

Matt Kenseth

DM: Dover has been one of Matt Kenseth’s favorite race tracks and it shows as he owns two wins and 20 top ten finishes in his 31 starts. His Dover driver rating is second only to Jimmie Johnson and he enters this weekend at 8-1 odds to win. Kenseth was one of the drivers to beat here in June as he finished a strong third. While Dover has been Kenseth’s friend many times, it has also served as his nemesis as four of his five DNF’s here have come in the September race. In the past, many of Kenseth’s Chase runs have been derailed in this Dover event due to flat tires and pit barrels at times. Kenseth is in the firestorm of drivers needing a strong finish to advance in the Chase and he has a 12 point cushion on the cut-off point. The#20 team will see increased pressure to make the next Chase round this week and a good points day is imperative. The team is pretty level headed however and a solid business as usual run should propel them to the next round.

Denny Hamlin

JW:  Denny Hamlin is one of four drivers that are on the outside looking in.  Currently just six points behind bubble sitter Ryan Newman, Hamlin also has a tight battle behind him.  Greg Biffle is tied with Hamlin, Kurt Busch is just two points behind and Aric Almirola is four behind.  Results at Dover for Hamlin haven’t been spectacular but they haven’t been bad either.  Hamlin has yet to win at the one mile track but he has six top tens in seventeen starts.  With the tight point battle, a top ten run just might be all Hamlin needs to advance to the Contender Round of the Chase.  Hamlin finished fifth in June after starting seventh.  A repeat performance should be expected.

Carl Edwards

DM: Like Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards is on the edge of the elimination zone with a 12 point cushion on the cut-off point. He has one Dover win to his credit to go along with 12 top ten finishes in 20 races. Edwards finished 14^th here in June and the Vegas odds makers tab him as a 40-1 shot to win. So far in the Chase, Edward’s results have been mediocre at best and both the driver and team are very much aware much more is needed if they want to advance to the next Chase round. “Concrete” Carl has been a force to be reckoned with at Dover in the past as his average finishing position is 10.2. The elimination pressure is being felt by this team as well and they’ll need to dig down and face it head on if they wish to continue on in the Chase.

Kasey Kahne

JW:  This race will be huge for Kasey Kahne.  Largely forgotten in talk about the Chase drivers, Kahne hasn’t done anything spectacular or memorable in the last few races to be talked about.  In fact his last three races at Dover with finishes fo 11th, 20th and 19th mimic his last three race results this season 17th, 13th and 23rd.  And that is not going to get it done.  If Kahne has hopes of moving forward in the Chase, now is the time to go.  A top ten run at Dover would solidify his chances at moving forward to the Contender Round, but statistically, a top ten run seems unlikely.

Aric Almirola

DM: Everyone had written off Aric Almirola after his engine problems in Chicago but he bounced back at New Hampshire to at least put his team within shouting distance of making the cut. It’s still a stretch and Almirola’s best shot would be to win but at 100-1 odds this week, that seems like a long shot as well. Almirola has one top five Sprint Cup finish at Dover and was 12^th here in June. He does have a Truck series and K&N Series win at Dover and the team hasn’t given up. Even if Almirola and the #43 team fail to advance past Dover, they can take some pride in the efforts they have made during the past few weeks.

AJ Allmendinger

JW:  It looks like the #47 team and AJ Allmendinger have done their homework since he qualified for the Chase by winning at Watkins Glen.  While Chicagoland wasn’t as successful as they would have liked, Allmendinger ran well at New Hampshire and jumped up into tenth in the standings.  The run last weekend showed the heat of the team where they started oorly but improved all day long, peaking in the top ten and finishing 13th.  Just eight points ahead of the cutoff, Allmendinger needs to have another run like last weekend to move on to the next round of the Chase.  Maybe pulling a page from Alan Kulwicki in 1992 and putting an UnderDog sticker on the car would help to make sure the story doesn’t end.

 

 

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