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Mash The Gas: Kansas Preview

Will Joey Logano score another Chase victory and move on to the next round?  [John Wiedemann Photo]

by Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann

The Contender Round of the 2014 Chase for the Sprint Cup kicks off this weekend as the Kansas Speedway hosts the Hollywood Casino 400 Sunday afternoon.

After last week’s Dover event, Greg Biffle, Kurt Busch, Aric Almirola, and A.J. Allmendinger all had their Chase hopes end as the top twelve drivers move on to the Contender round and left them behind. This round of the Chase is perhaps the toughest as after events in Kansas and Charlotte, the wildcard at Talladega serves as the elimination race.

A win in the next two weeks ensures a driver is immune from Talladega’s unpredictability and is safely on the next round. With that on their minds, the 12 remaining Chase “Contenders” enter Kansas with an extra incentive to win.

The Kansas Speedway is a 1.5 mile oval similar to tracks that make up a majority of the Chase schedule and here are some drivers to watch Sunday in the Hollywood Casino 400.

Joey Logano

(Dan Margetta): Joey Logano hasn’t won at Kansas yet, but he enters this race on quite a roll. Already with a Chase win in the previous round, Logano has two top ten finishes in his 10 Kansas starts. At face value, that isn’t very impressive but those two best finishes were in the last two races held here where Logano took the checkered flag in fourth each time. The #22 team will race the chassis Logano drove to a third place finish at Pocono and he’s listed at 8-1 odds this week. Joey Logano is having the best season of his career and the Penske cars continue to be fast week in and week out. Logano also has a strong record this season on the 1.5 miles tracks and he finished strong a few weeks ago at Chicago. While not heavily favored this week, Logano could very well sneak in there for a Kansas victory to punch his ticket to the next Chase round.

Brad Keselowski

(John Wiedemann):  Joey Logano’s teammate Brad Keselowsi is definitely one to watch, something that will be easy to do as he should spend most of the race at the front of the pack.  The Team Penske cars have been dominant in the Chase so far winning two of three races.  Keselowski has an 11.4 average finish on the 1.5 mile tracks this season, but included in those finishes are three wins in the seven events.  Finishing first, seventh and second in the three Chase races so far and leading laps to pick up bonus points shows that Keselowski is in Championship mode.  I predict it will be a battle between the #2 and #22 when the checkers fly in Kansas.

Kevin Harvick

DM: Kevin Harvick already owns a victory at Kansas and he finished a strong second here earlier in the May race. He’s a strong 9-2 favorite to win this weekend as Harvick and the #4 team continue to be the fastest car on the track, especially on the 1.5 mile tracks. He has eight top ten finishes in his 17 Kansas starts but this season having the fastest car hasn’t produced the victories for Harvick. Last week at Dover he dominated the race but tire issues relegated him back as Jeff Gordon took the win. Harvick should be plenty fast at Kansas and should be in position to win once again, however until this team escapes the dark cloud of bad luck that seems to hover over them, there will always be questions as to whether they are able to close the deal. A Kansas win would be big for this team and could give them much needed momentum as they get deeper in the Chase.

Jeff Gordon

JW:  Jeff Gordon has had the best results of all drivers this season at the 1.5 mile tracks and should continue that theme in Kansas.  Gordon finished third in this race last season and scored the win at Kansas earlier this season.  He is also coming off a victory at Dover last weekend.  But last weekend is last weekend and all the victories and points that Gordon piled up this season mean nothing other than he is one of twelve drivers that still have a shot at the Cup.  With two 1.5 mile tracks leading off this round, Gordon should be setup to do well and move forward with seven other drivers to the Eliminator Round.

Matt Kenseth

DM: With two wins and ten top 10 finishes in 17 Kansas races, Matt Kenseth historically runs well here. Six of those top 10 finishes were in the top five and he finished tenth earlier this year in the May Kansas race. Kenseth and the #20 team continue to hover around the top five each and every week and while still seeking their first 2014 victory, their continued presence near the front of the field should put them in victory lane one of these weeks. Kenseth is listed at 10-1 odds this week and a Kansas victory would be especially important as it would get him off the hook for the Talladega elimination race in two weeks. After knocking on the door of a victory all season long, Kenseth and the #20 team could very well finally crash through that door and wind up in victory lane on Sunday.

Kasey Kahne

JW:  Kasey Kahne barely squeaked into the round of contenders.  With finishes of 13th, 20th and 23rd, it wasn’t a stellar kick-off to the Chase for Kahne.  The good news…  First of all Kahne was four laps down and out of the Chase at one point in the Dover race.  Kahne raced back to one lap down at the end and just enough points to transfer to the “Contenders”.  Now, all that is in the past and what is in front of Kahne is two mile and a half tracks.  Kahne averaged and 8th place finish on 1.5s including a win at Atlanta.  And just like that, Kahne is setup for a path to the next round of the Chase.

Jimmie Johnson

DM: In Jimmie Johnson’s 16 Kansas races, he has finished in the top ten a whopping 14 times with two victories. His 7.6 averaging finishing position at Kansas is the best on the tour and he is listed at 6-1 odds this week. This season though, Johnson and the #48 team don’t scare the competition like they used to. A strong Dover third place run returned them to the front of the field, but they don’t have that domination in the Chase that we are used to seeing out of them. They still can’t be forgotten though and Johnson should be in contention for the victory this week. With Johnson’s spotty Talladega luck, the next two races present the best chance for the #48 team to advance in the Chase securely and Johnson will be looking for Kansas victory number three on Sunday.

Denny Hamlin

JW:  All three Joe Gibbs Racing teams transferred forward to the Contender Round, which answered some questions regarding the team’s increase in performance.  Will all three move forward to the Eliminator Round?  That question may be answered this weekend.  With two 1.5 mile races out of the three events in the round, Denny Hamlin may be the odd man out.  Hamlin finished 18th at Kansas and 22nd at Charlotte earlier this season and he has a 16.5 average at the 1.5 mile tracks this season.  Those stats don’t look good.  On the other hand Hamlin finished 3rd at Atlanta and 6th at Chicagoland, the last two 1.5 tracks, which may point to the improvements at JGR.  Also, Hamlin won at Talladega this year, which is the wildcard final race in this round.  But, no one wants to count on that race to transfer forward.

Kyle Busch

DM: We are at a critical stage in Kyle Busch’s 2014 Chase run. If there has been one track on the circuit that has been Busch’s Kryptonite so to speak, it has been the Kansas Speedway. Many times Busch’s championship hopes have come crashing down at Kansas, often times ending up crashed in the wall. The upside for Kyle Busch is with this new format, a bad Kansas result can be cured with a victory in the upcoming two weeks. That’s easier said than done however, and Busch and the #18 team would much rather erase their Kansas demons with a victory on Sunday.

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