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Who Wins The Championship?

Dale Earnhardt Jr. leads a pack of cars during the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway in the 2013 finale.  [Credit NASCAR via Getty Images]

 

With the introduction of a new format to determine the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion, the question comes to mind – who would have won under this format last season?

While I believe that you can not paste a new format on top of last season’s results to come up with an outcome, it still is a fun exercise.  There are many factors that produce results and changing parameters affect those results.  But, let’s just figure it out anyway.

Your Sprint Cup Champion…   Matt Kenseth.

This is actually pretty easy to figure out.  Kenseth finished second in the season finale at Homestead to Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin.  Hamlin would not have been eligible for the Chase, so that means Kenseth is the champ.

But, you ask, would Kenseth make it through each of the three three-race survivor mini-series?

Yes he would…  well, wait a minute.

And here is where it gets tricky.

Looking back at who are the sixteen drivers eligible for the Chase there are two questions.  If you remember the mess that was the fallout after Richmond last season, Martin Truex Jr. was penalized fifty points and knocked out of the Chase and then Jeff Gordon was added in as a thirteenth participant.  Well, there is an issue with the new format as well.  After determining the field of sixteen drivers, we will see that Tony Stewart is included in the field.  Stewart broke his leg in a sprintcar accident and was out for the season when the Chase rolled around.   The question is how does NASCAR handle this situation, do they let Stewart’s car in with a different driver or does Jeff Gordon, seventeenth when all is calculated, get his position?  Also, the fifty point deduction does not eliminate Truex from the Chase since he is in with his win at Sonoma.  Does NASCAR boot Truex out of the Chase anyway?  And, how does this affect Matt Kenseth?

Let’s say, for the sake of drama, that Gordon gets in.  In the Contender Round (races 30-32), Gordon won at Martinsville which puts him automatically into the final four to race for the championship.  Johnson and Kevin Harvick win the next two races which puts them in the final four with one spot left.  That spot goes to Dale Earnhardt Jr. who has thirteen points more than Kenseth in the Eliminator Round (races 33-35).  Kenseth is out and wishes that Stewart never raced in a sprintcar.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. finishes third at Homestead, the best out of the final four, and wins his first Sprint Cup Championship, without winning a race all season.

So, there you go…  it all works out in the end.

 

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