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Watkins Glen Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at The Glen
THE PLACE: Watkins Glen International
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, August 14, 2011 – 1:19pm/et, 12:19/ct

This Sunday’s race at Watkins Glen International will be the second of two road course events for Cup drivers this year, the first being at Infineon Raceway in June. Drivers will make 90 laps around this 11-turn, 2.45-mile track.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP THIRTY
1) 18 Kyle Busch
2) 14 Tony Stewart
3) 22 Kurt Busch
4) 9 Marcos Ambrose
5) 48 Jimmie Johnson
6) 99 Carl Edwards
7) 24 Jeff Gordon
8) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
9) 39 Ryan Newman
10) 4 Kasey Kahne
11) 2 Brad Keselowski
12) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
13) 11 Denny Hamlin
14) 29 Kevin Harvick
15) 16 Greg Biffle
16) 1 Jamie McMurray
17) 33 Clint Bowyer
18) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
19) 17 Matt Kenseth
20) 20 Joey Logano
21) 27 Paul Menard
22) 78 Regan Smith
23) 31 Jeff Burton
24) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
25) 5 Mark Martin
26) 83 Brian Vickers
27) 7 Robby Gordon
28) 34 David Gilliland
29) 47 Bobby Labonte
30) 36 Ron Fellows

WATKINS GLEN DRIVER STATS
Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
• One win, two top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 10.3
• Average Running Position of 13.7, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 102.1, fourth-best
• 32 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• 260 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 118.857 mph, sixth-fastest
• 345 Laps in the Top 15 (63.7%), seventh-most
• 123 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)
• Five wins, seven top fives, 10 top 10s
• Average finish of 5.4
• Series-best Average Running Position of 4.7
• Series-best Driver Rating of 129.6
• Series-high 104 Fastest Laps Run
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 119.585 mph
• Series-high 525 Laps in the Top 15 (96.9%)
• Series-high 150 Quality Passes

Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• One top five, four top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 18.0
• Average Running Position of 13.6, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 101.9, fifth-best
• 42 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• 255 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 118.939 mph, fourth-fastest
• 392 Laps in the Top 15 (72.3%), third-most
• 142 Quality Passes, third-most

Marcos Ambrose (No. 9 Stanley Ford)
• Three top fives, three top 10s
• Average finish of 2.7
• Average Running Position of 10.3, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 113.2, third-best
• 49 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 119.463 mph, second-fastest

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• Three top fives, four top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 14.7
• Average Running Position of 9.9, third-best
• Driver Rating of 100.0, sixth-best
• 14 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 118.845 mph, seventh-fastest
• 433 Laps in the Top 15 (79.9%), second-most
• 116 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Scotts Ortho Ford)
• Three top fives, five top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 8.2
• Average Running Position of 12.7, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 94.9, eighth-best
• 14 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 268 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 118.573 mph, ninth-fastest
• 378 Laps in the Top 15 (69.7%), fourth-most
• 115 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Four wins, six top fives, nine top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 14.6
• Average Running Position of 14.9, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 89.0, 11th-best
• 17 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 252 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 118.508 mph, 10th-fastest
• 311 Laps in the Top 15 (57.4%), ninth-most
• 112 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)
• One win, two top fives, three top 10s
• Average finish of 12.5
• Average Running Position of 8.3, second-best
• Driver Rating of 113.5, second-best
• 46 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 119.331 mph, third-fastest
• 328 Laps in the Top 15 (91.1%), eighth-most
• 109 Quality Passes, 10th-most

AJ Allmendinger (No. 43 Best Buy Ford)
• One top five, one top 10
• Average finish of 9.3
• Average Running Position of 13.8, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 91.9, ninth-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 118.756 mph, eighth-fastest

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Ground Toyota)
• One top five, four top 10s
• Average finish of 13.4
• Average Running Position of 11.2, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 99.9, seventh-best
• 11 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 118.884 mph, fifth-fastest
• 368 Laps in the Top 15 (81.8%), fifth-most
• 120 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)

• One win, two top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 13.6
• Average Running Position of 15.4, 12th-best
• Driver Rating of 89.6, 10th-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 118.288 mph, 13th-fastest
• 356 Laps in the Top 15 (65.7%), sixth-most
• 102 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Jamie McMurray (No. 1 Bass Pro Shops/Tracker Boats Chevrolet)
• One top five, two top 10s
• Average finish of 18.4
• Average Running Position of 16.6, 13th-best
• Driver Rating of 85.2, 12th-best
• 8 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 118.293 mph, 12th-fastest
• 280 Laps in the Top 15 (51.7%), 11th-most

Robby Gordon (No. 7 SPEED Energy Dodge)
• One win, seven top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 13.3
• Driver Rating of 83.0, 13th-best
• 11 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• 244 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most

“THE GLEN” HIGHLIGHTS
• Buck Baker won the first race at The Glen in 1957.
• The race winner has started first in nine of 28 races. The last race winner to start from the pole was Kyle Busch in 2008.
• Mark Martin leads all drivers with wins from the pole with three in a row between 1993, 1994 and 1995.
• 18 of the 28 races at Watkins Glen have been won from a top-five starting position.
• 20 of the 28 races at Watkins Glen have been won from a top-10 starting position.
• 17 different drivers have won races, led by Tony Stewart, with five.
• Jeff Gordon set the all-time NASCAR Sprint Cup record for road-course victories with his victory in 2001, his seventh on a road course. He has since won two more (both at Infineon Raceway), for a career total of nine.
• Three active drivers with more than one start have an average finish in the top 10: Marcos Ambrose (2.6 in three starts), Tony Stewart (5.4 in 12 starts), Carl Edwards (8.1 in six starts), Mark Martin (8.2 in 21 starts) and AJ Allmendinger (9.3 in three starts).

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