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View From the Couch: What’s Wrong with Hendick Motorsports?

After five races everyone wants to ask, “What’s Wrong with Hendrick Motorsports?”

Nothing.

Sorry, you’re still there? Ok, here’s more evidence.

Hendrick Motorsports jumped way out in front with the CoT in 2007. They won 16 total races including 12 in the CoT. With any type of new aero-package or new car a handful of teams will figure it out first. In 2005 it was Roush and Hendrick that figured out the smaller spoiler and softer tire package. Then in 2006 and 2007 the other teams caught up with that aero-package. It wasn’t as much about Roush and Hendrick stumbling as everyone else catching on.

The same thing is happening with the CoT. Hendrick jumped way out in front because they were the first to hit on a setup that allowed their drivers more comfort than most. Now other teams have figured that out. In the copycat world of sports, it’s a lot easier to catch up than it is to continue finding new advances.

The other reason Hendrick is returning to the pack is simple regression to the mean. It’s hard to sustain the dominance they enjoyed last year. Races are often won from opportunity. Look at the different ways Hendrick cars won last year. Kyle Busch watched the top two Gibbs cars falter at Bristol and Busch held on for the win. Look at some of the races Jeff Gordon won in 2007. A perfectly timed pit stop gave him the late lead at Phoenix. Engineers are still working on the reason why Gordon’s engine didn’t blow up at Darlington, let alone how it could go fast enough for the #24 car to win. Again at Pocono Gordon didn’t have the fastest car, but took advantage of pit strategy and pending rain to parlay track position into another win. Jimmie Johnson scored a win at Atlanta by surviving the carnage on the penultimate restart.

That’s five races Hendrick cars won that normally would have gone to other teams. In fact, in all five races Denny Hamlin and Gibbs Racing could have made a case as deserving winners. Five fortuitous wins in a season is incredible, but it’s impossible to sustain that kind of racing luck.

This year the Hendrick teams are still strong, but the results aren’t as eye-popping as recent years:

Jeff Gordon’s 102.9 driver rating is 4th best through five races. He had mechanical failure at Daytona, finished 3rd at Fontana, made a mistake and wrecked at Las Vegas, scored a top ten at Atlanta and ground out an eleventh at Bristol.

Jimmie Johnson’s 89.9 rating is below his normal standards, but is ranked 11th. He had excellent runs at Daytona, California and Bristol but a wreck at Daytona and a flat tire at Bristol hurt the final finishes. He currently sits in 13th place in the points despite only one top ten finish. The only concern is how poorly Johnson ran at both Las Vegas and Atlanta. Given the fact that this kind of track makes up a large portion of the Cup schedule, it needs addressing. That said, after being the most consistent driver of the last four years I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt that he’ll bounce back.

Dale Earnhardt Jr (99.9 driver rating) has three top fives and four top tens in five races. His only bad result was a matter of getting clipped by a spinning Casey Mears at California. He sits 5th in the standings and won two non-points races during Daytona Speedweeks.

Casey Mears sits in 33rd place in the points. Compared to his teammates, that’s a mighty struggle, but look at where he was last year at this time. Last year Mears had a new team and crew chief and Mears himself was adjusting to Hendrick Motorsports. After five races Mears was languishing in 26th place. This year he is again adjusting to a new crew and crew chief in Alan Gustafson. Sure Earnhardt Jr had to adjust to a new team too, but he is familiar with Tony Eury Jr and let’s be real, Mears and Earnhardt are in different classes.

The season is far from over and all it takes is a recent history lesson to see the potential for the rest of the season. In 2005 Joe Gibbs Racing had a disastrous start filled with blown engines, broken wheels, flat tires, oil fires and wrecks through the first fourteen races. Tony Stewart was winless while teammates Bobby Labonte and Jason Leffler struggled to finish races. Similar questions were asked about what was wrong with the Gibbs teams. Then in mid-summer something clicked and Stewart reeled off an amazing hot streak that included 5 wins, 14 top 5’s and 19 top 10’s in the final 21 races. He won the Nextel Cup, Labonte turned in solid runs down the stretch and the #11 car managed to regroup with a prospect named Denny Hamlin at the wheel.

Hendrick has all of the necessary pieces to do something similar. Johnson, Gordon and Earnhardt are all in position to each win multiple races and make the Chase. Mears bounced back last year to post strong runs including his first Cup win. Hendrick teams have won a minimum of eight races a year since 2003 and there is no reason to believe they won’t match that in 2008.

For more NASCAR features, insight and opinion check out Trouble in Turn 2.

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