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Texas Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: AAA Texas 500
THE PLACE: Texas Motor Speedway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, November 6, 2011 – 3:16pm/et, 2:16pm/ct

The old-time adage claiming everything is bigger in Texas certainly applies this week when talking about the AAA Texas 500 and TMS President Eddie Gossage, the man who brought the Wild West to his track’s Victory Lane via cowboy-boot trophies, 10-gallon hats and six-shooters. And a mighty big facility exists too at this 24-degree, 1.5 mile quad-oval in north Fort Worth. Texas Motor Speedway sits on 1,500 acres, can serve 212,470 rabid fans, has enough lighting to illuminate 11 NFL stadiums, and an infield large enough to fit eight Texas Stadiums inside! The aluminum in the front grandstand alone would be enough to produce 61,000,000 beer cans!

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 17 Matt Kenseth
2) 48 Jimmie Johnson
3) 14 Tony Stewart
4) 99 Carl Edwards
5) 11 Denny Hamlin
6) 16 Greg Biffle
7) 29 Kevin Harvick
8) 33 Clint Bowyer
9) 22 Kurt Busch
10) 18 Kyle Busch
11) 5 Mark Martin
12) 24 Jeff Gordon
13) 31 Jeff Burton
14) 2 Brad Keselowski
15) 39 Ryan Newman
16) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
17) 6 David Ragan
18) 4 Kasey Kahne
19) 9 Marcos Ambrose
20) 27 Paul Menard
21) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
22) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
23) 83 Brian Vickers
24) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
25) 00 David Reutimann

TEXAS DRIVER STATS
1 – Carl Edwards (No. 99 AFLAC Ford)
• Three wins, four top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 16.5 in 13 races
• Average Running Position of 11.9, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 98.3, fifth-best
• 288 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 172.956 mph, fourth-fastest
• 3,362 Laps in the Top 15 (77.3%), third-most
• 512 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), third-most

2 – Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)
• One win, four top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 13.2 in 19 races
• Series-best Average Running Position of 9.0
• Driver Rating of 102.9, second-best
• 287 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 173.043 mph
• Series-high 3,561 Laps in the Top 15 (81.8%)
• 488 Quality Passes, seventh-most

3 – Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Rheem Chevrolet)
• Three top fives, eight top 10s
• Average finish of 12.9 in 17 races
• Average Running Position of 16.1, 13th-best
• Driver Rating of 83.2, 14th-best
• 919 Green Flag Passes, third-most
• 375 Quality Passes, 13th-most

4 – Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
• Average finish of 23.7 in six races
• Average Running Position of 25.3, 30th-best
• Driver Rating of 57.3, 32nd-best

5 – Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
• Two wins, nine top fives, 12 top 10s
• Average finish of 9.0 in 18 races
• Average Running Position of 10.0, second-best
• Series-best Driver Rating of 105.2
• 250 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• 947 Green Flag Passes, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 172.997 mph, third-fastest
• 3,326 Laps in the Top 15 (76.4%), fourth-most
• 525 Quality Passes, second-most

6 – Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 MyLowe’s Chevrolet)
• One win, seven top fives, 12 top 10s
• Average finish of 9.9 in 16 races
• Average Running Position of 12.5, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 98.8, fourth-best
• 242 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 172.648 mph, ninth-fastest
• 3,052 Laps in the Top 15 (70.1%), fifth-most
• 495 Quality Passes, sixth-most

7 – Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
• Four top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 16.2 in 13 races
• Average Running Position of 12.2, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 97.5, seventh-best
• 203 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 796 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 172.890 mph, fifth-fastest
• 2,951 Laps in the Top 15 (67.8%), seventh-most
• 480 Quality Passes, eighth-most

8 – Kurt Busch (No. 22 AAA Dodge)
• One win, three top fives, 11 top 10s
• Average finish of 13.6 in 17 races
• Average Running Position of 13.7, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 92.0, 10th-best
• 174 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 852 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 172.478 mph, 11th-fastest
• 2,801 Laps in the Top 15 (64.4%), eighth-most
• 442 Quality Passes, ninth-most

9 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard Heritage/AMP Energy Chevrolet)
• One win, three top fives, nine top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 14.5 in 18 races
• Average Running Position of 11.2, third-best
• Driver Rating of 93.1, eighth-best
• 162 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• 900 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 172.718 mph, seventh-fastest
• 3,392 Laps in the Top 15 (77.9%), second-most
• Series-high 562 Quality Passes

10 – Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet)
• One win, seven top fives, nine top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 17.3 in 21 races
• Average Running Position of 14.7, 12th-best
• Driver Rating of 89.2, 11th-best
• 199 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 2,509 Laps in the Top 15 (57.7%), 11th-most
• 407 Quality Passes, 11th-most

11 – Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Office Toyota)
• Two wins, five top fives, eight top 10s

• Average finish of 9.3 in 12 races
• Average Running Position of 11.9, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 97.8, sixth-best
• 157 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• 853 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 172.748 mph, sixth-fastest
• 2,715 Laps in the Top 15 (67.6%), ninth-most
• 499 Quality Passes, fifth-most

12 – Ryan Newman (No. 39 Haas Automation Chevrolet)
• One win, three top fives, three top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 21.0 in 16 races
• Average Running Position of 21.0, 23rd-best
• Driver Rating of 69.9, 23rd-best
• 782 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most

TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
• Jeff Burton won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Texas in 1997.
• 15 drivers have scored poles, led by Dale Earnhardt Jr., Bobby Labonte, Ryan Newman and Jeff Gordon with two.
• 16 drivers have won races, led by Carl Edwards, with three. Denny Hamlin, Jeff Burton and Matt Kenseth each have two wins.
• 15 of 21 races have been won from a top-10 starting position. Only one has been won from the pole (Kasey Kahne in 2006).
• Matt Kenseth (9.0), Denny Hamlin (9.3) and Jimmie Johnson (9.9) are the only three active drivers to average a top-10 finish.
• Roush Fenway Racing leads all owners in victories, with eight. Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports have three wins each.
• There has been two season sweeps, by Carl Edwards in 2008 and Denny Hamlin in 2010.

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