RacingNation.com
Home / Cup Corner / Texas Fantasy Forecast

Texas Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Samsung Mobile 500
THE PLACE: Texas Motor Speedway
GREEN FLAG: Saturday, April 9, 2011 – 7:45pm/et, 6:45pm/ct

This Saturday night under the lights, Sprint Cup drivers head to Texas Motor Speedway for the running of the Samsung Mobile 500. Located in suburban Fort Worth, Texas Motor Speedway is one of the largest racetrack facilities in the US. The 1.5-mile, 24-degree quad-oval seats 158,000 race fans, and is home to 80 residential condos that overlook the track, 200 luxury suites, and an office and entertainment complex. The track layout is very similar to Atlanta Motor Speedway and Lowe’s Motor Speedway.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 17 Matt Kenseth
3) 18 Kyle Busch
4) 29 Kevin Harvick
5) 11 Denny Hamlin
6) 16 Greg Biffle
7) 99 Carl Edwards
8) 22 Kurt Busch
9) 14 Tony Stewart
10) 5 Mark Martin
11) 24 Jeff Gordon
12) 39 Ryan Newman
13) 33 Clint Bowyer
14) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
15) 27 Paul Menard
16) 00 David Reutimann
17) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
18) 31 Jeff Burton
19) 4 Kasey Kahne
20) 1 Jamie McMurray
21) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
22) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
23) 9 Marcos Ambrose
24) 83 Brian Vickers
25) 6 David Ragan

TEXAS DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s/KOBALT Tools Chevrolet)
• One win, seven top fives, 11 top 10s
• Average finish of 10.1
• Average Running Position of 12.5, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 99.3, fourth-best
• 240 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 172.682 mph, eighth-fastest
• 2,805 Laps in the Top 15 (69.8%), fifth-most
• 424 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Black Ford)
• One win, eight top fives, 11 top 10s
• Average finish of 9.5
• Average Running Position of 10.6, second-best
• Driver Rating of 101.9, second-best
• 183 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 851 Green Flag Passes, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 172.961 mph, fourth-fastest
• 2,996 Laps in the Top 15 (74.6%), fourth-most
• 448 Quality Passes, third-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Interstate Batteries Toyota)
• Four top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 16.2
• Average Running Position of 12.6, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 97.6, sixth-best
• 195 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 172.938 mph, fifth-fastest
• 2,640 Laps in the Top 15 (65.7%), seventh-most
• 398 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Office/March of Dimes Toyota)
• Two wins, five top fives, eight top 10s
• Average finish of 8.8
• Average Running Position of 11.5, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 99.2, fifth-best
• 140 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
• 727 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 172.816 mph, sixth-fastest
• 2,592 Laps in the Top 15 (70.4%), ninth-most
• 448 Quality Passes, third-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
• One win, four top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 19.0
• Average Running Position of 14.2, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 99.4, third-best
• Series-high 367 Fastest Laps Run
• 701 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 173.066 mph, second-fastest
• 2,658 Laps in the Top 15 (66.2%), sixth-most
• 425 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), sixth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 SCOTTS Ford)
• Three wins, three top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 17.7
• Average Running Position of 12.5, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 96.9, seventh-best
• 270 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• 697 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 172.976 mph, third-fastest
• 3,028 Laps in the Top 15 (75.4%), third-most
• 454 Quality Passes, second-most

Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• One win, three top fives, 10 top 10s
• Average finish of 13.8
• Average Running Position of 14.2, 12th-best
• Driver Rating of 91.3, 10th-best
• 159 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 779 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 172.506 mph, 13th-fastest
• 2,475 Laps in the Top 15 (61.6%), 10th-most
• 390 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)
• One win, four top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 13.2
• Series-best Average Running Position of 8.6
• Series-best Driver Rating of 104.5
• 274 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 173.177 mph
• Series-high 3,347 Laps in the Top 15 (83.3%)
• 435 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
• One win, seven top fives, 12 top 10s
• Average finish of 12.4
• Average Running Position of 13.3, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 90.9, 11th-best
• 710 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 172.536 mph, 12th-fastest
• 2,636 Laps in the Top 15 (65.6%), eighth-most
• 365 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• One win, seven top fives, nine top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 17.0
• Average Running Position of 14.1, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 91.6, ninth-best
• 197 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• 2,469 Laps in the Top 15 (61.4%), 11th-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet)
• Two top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 14.5
• Average Running Position of 13.8, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 89.3, 12th-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 172.656 mph, ninth-fastest

David Reutimann (No. 00 Aaron’s Dream Machine Toyota)
• One top 10; one pole
• Average finish of 24.7
• Average Running Position of 15.1, 13th-best
• Driver Rating of 86.2, 13th-best
• 105 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 172.623 mph, 10th-fastest

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
• One win, three top fives, eight top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 14.8
• Average Running Position of 11.1, third-best
• Driver Rating of 93.0, eighth-best
• 148 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• 769 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 172.754 mph, seventh-fastest
• 3,111 Laps in the Top 15 (77.4%), second-most
• Series-high 481 Quality Passes

TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
• Four drivers have competed in all 20 Texas races since the track opened in 1997: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte and Mark Martin.
• Jeff Burton won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race.
• 14 drivers have scored poles, led by Dale Earnhardt Jr., Bobby Labonte, Ryan Newman and Jeff Gordon with two.
• 16 drivers have won races, led by Carl Edwards, with three. Denny Hamlin and Jeff Burton each have two wins.
• 14 of 20 races have been won from a top-10 starting position. Only one has been won from the pole (Kasey Kahne in 2006).
• Both Jeff Burton (1999) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (2000) scored their first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series win at Texas, and 2011 Daytona 500 winner Trevor Bayne made his first series start at Texas (11/07/10).
• Three of the last four races have had a margin of victory under one second.
• Denny Hamlin (8.8) and Matt Kenseth (9.3) are the only two active drivers to average a top-10 finish.
• Roush Fenway Racing leads all owners in victories, with seven. Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports have three wins each.
• There has been two season sweeps, by Carl Edwards in 2008 and Denny Hamlin in 2010.

Share Button