RacingNation.com
Home / Cup Corner / Texas Fantasy Forecast

Texas Fantasy Forecast

TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY
AAA Texas 500
Sunday, November 7, 2010 in Fort Worth, TX

The old-time adage claiming everything is bigger in Texas certainly applies this week when talking about the AAA Texas 500 and TMS President Eddie Gossage, the man who brought the Wild West to his track’s Victory Lane via cowboy-boot trophies, 10-gallon hats and six-shooters. And a mighty big facility exists too at this 24-degree, 1.5 mile quad-oval in north Fort Worth. Texas Motor Speedway sits on 1,500 acres, can serve 212,470 rabid fans, has enough lighting to illuminate 11 NFL stadiums, and an infield large enough to fit eight Texas Stadiums inside! The aluminum in the front grandstand alone would be enough to produce 61,000,000 beer cans!

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on a statistical formula that includes drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 17 Matt Kenseth
3) 24 Jeff Gordon
4) 18 Kyle Busch
5) 11 Denny Hamlin
6) 2 Kurt Busch
7) 5 Mark Martin
8) 29 Kevin Harvick
9) 14 Tony Stewart
10) 31 Jeff Burton
11) 99 Carl Edwards
12) 33 Clint Bowyer
13) 1 Jamie McMurray
14) 16 Greg Biffle
15) 39 Ryan Newman
16) 00 David Reutimann
17) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
18) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
19) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
20) 83 Kasey Kahne
21) 20 Joey Logano
22) 98 Paul Menard
23) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
24) 6 David Ragan
25) 47 Marcos Ambrose

TEXAS DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? One win, seven top fives, 10 top 10s
? Average finish of 10.1 in 14 races
? Average Running Position of 12.8, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 99.0, third-best
? 233 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.435 mph, ninth-fastest
? 2,488 Laps in the Top 15 (67.5%), sixth-most
? 335 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), 10th-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Black Ford)
? One win, seven top fives, 10 top 10s
? Average finish of 9.9 in 16 races
? Average Running Position of 10.2, third-best
? Driver Rating of 101.6, second-best
? Series-high 733 Green Flag Passes
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.744 mph, fourth-fastest
? 2,771 Laps in the Top 15 (75.2%), third-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont/National Guard Chevrolet)
? One win, seven top fives, nine top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 15.9 in 19 races
? Average Running Position of 13.2, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.7, 10th-best
? 195 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 2,333 Laps in the Top 15 (63.3%), eighth-most
? 324 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? Four top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 14.7 in 11 races
? Average Running Position of 11.7, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 98.3, fourth-best
? 161 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? 627 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.712 mph, fifth-fastest
? 2,506 Laps in the Top 15 (68.0%), fifth-most
? 363 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? One win, four top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 9.6 in 10 races
? Average Running Position of 11.9, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 97.2, sixth-best
? 115 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? 655 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.571 mph, seventh-fastest
? 2,317 Laps in the Top 15 (69.2%), 10th-most
? 407 Quality Passes, second-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Operation Home Front/Miller Lite Dodge)
? One win, three top fives, 10 top 10s
? Average finish of 13.1 in 15 races
? Average Running Position of 13.2, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 94.5, ninth-best
? 157 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? 667 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? 2,457 Laps in the Top 15 (66.7%), seventh-most
? 381 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Realtree/Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? Three top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 12.9 in 15 races
? Average Running Position of 16.2, 16th-best
? Driver Rating of 83.0, 15th-best
? 695 Green Flag Passes, third-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? One win, four top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 13.4 in 17 races
? Series-best Average Running Position of 8.3
? Series-best Driver Rating of 105.7
? 270 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 173.013 mph
? 3,092 Laps in the Top 15 (83.9%), second-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 CAT Financial Chevrolet)
? Two wins, three top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 15.1 in 19 races
? Average Running Position of 16.0, 14th-best
? Driver Rating of 86.0, 14th-best
? 109 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
? 676 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? 339 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Subway Ford)
? Three wins, three top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 17.5 in 11 races
? Average Running Position of 12.6, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 97.8, fifth-best
? 268 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? 627 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.789 mph, second-fastest
? 2,759 Laps in the Top 15 (74.9%), fourth-most
? 407 Quality Passes, second-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 BB&T Chevrolet)
? Two top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 15.3 in nine races
? Average Running Position of 14.2, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 88.4, 11th-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.449 mph, eighth-fastest

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? One win, three top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 20.1 in 13 races
? Average Running Position of 15.3, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 95.5, eighth-best
? Series-high 278 Fastest Laps Run
? 652 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.770 mph, third-fastest
? 376 Quality Passes, sixth-most

TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
? Jeff Burton won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Texas in 1997.
? 13 drivers have scored poles, led by Dale Earnhardt Jr., Bobby Labonte, Ryan Newman and Jeff Gordon with two.
? 16 drivers have won races, led by Carl Edwards, with three. Jeff Gordon won at Texas for the first time, last season. Gordon has won at every track he has run except Homestead-Miami Speedway.
? 14 of 19 races have been won from a top-10 starting position. Only one has been won from the pole (Kasey Kahne in 2006).
? Matt Kenseth started 31st en route to his victory at Texas in 2002, the deepest in the field that a race winner has started. Denny Hamlin started 29th in his win earlier this season.
? Both Jeff Burton (1999) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (2000) scored their first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series win at Texas.
? Six of the last eight races have had a margin of victory under one second.
? Denny Hamlin (9.6) and Matt Kenseth (9.9) are the only active drivers to average a top-10 finish.
? Roush Fenway Racing leads all owners in victories, with seven.
? There has been one season sweep, by Carl Edwards in 2008. Edwards is looking to break a 69-race winless drought. Jeff Gordon’s last win came at Texas, 62 races ago.

Share Button