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Texas Fantasy Forecast

TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Samsung Mobile 500
Sunday, April 18, 2010 in Fort Worth, TX

This Sunday, Sprint Cup drivers head to Texas Motor Speedway for the running of the Samsung 500. Located in suburban Fort Worth, Texas Motor Speedway is one of the largest racetrack facilities in the US. The 1.5-mile, 24-degree quad-oval seats 158,000 race fans, and is home to 80 residential condos that overlook the track, 200 luxury suites, and an office and entertainment complex. The track layout is very similar to Atlanta Motor Speedway and Lowe’s Motor Speedway.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. My top twenty-five list utilizes an exclusive formula I’ve developed over years of analyzing races. It factors in drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 24 Jeff Gordon
2) 17 Matt Kenseth
3) 48 Jimmie Johnson
4) 2 Kurt Busch
5) 99 Carl Edwards
6) 18 Kyle Busch
7) 16 Greg Biffle
8) 11 Denny Hamlin
9) 39 Ryan Newman
10) 5 Mark Martin
11) 14 Tony Stewart
12) 31 Jeff Burton
13) 33 Clint Bowyer
14) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
15) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
16) 29 Kevin Harvick
17) 00 David Reutimann
18) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
19) 83 Brian Vickers
20) 9 Kasey Kahne
21) 1 Jamie McMurray
22) 12 Brad Keselowski
23) 20 Joey Logano
24) 6 David Ragan
25) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
Tie 98 Paul Menard

TEXAS DRIVER STATS
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? One win, seven top fives, nine top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 15.1
? Average Running Position of 14.0, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 91.4, 10th-best
? 139 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 2,021 Laps in the Top 15 (60.3%), 11th-most
? 274 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
? One win, seven top fives, 10 top 10s
? Average finish of 9.3
? Average Running Position of 9.3, second-best
? Driver Rating of 105.0, second-best
? 149 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? Series-high 652 Green Flag Passes
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.444 mph, second-fastest
? 2,669 Laps in the Top 15 (79.7%), third-most
? 358 Quality Passes, second-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet)
? One win, six top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 10.8
? Average Running Position of 13.6, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 96.1, fifth-best
? 180 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.883 mph, 12th-fastest
? 2,175 Laps in the Top 15 (64.9%), seventh-most
? 272 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? One win, two top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 13.8
? Average Running Position of 13.7, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 93.8, ninth-best
? 155 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? 601 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.010 mph, ninth-fastest
? 2,137 Laps in the Top 15 (63.8%), eighth-most
? 324 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 SUBWAY Ford)
? Three wins, three top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 16.0
? Average Running Position of 12.7, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 99.7, third-best
? Series-high 266 Fastest Laps Run
? 551 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.404 mph, third-fastest
? 2,476 Laps in the Top 15 (73.9%), fourth-most
? 342 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? Three top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 15.9
? Average Running Position of 11.8, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 98.6, fourth-best
? 158 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.338 mph, fifth-fastest
? 2,205 Laps in the Top 15 (65.8%), sixth-most
? 288 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? One win, three top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 20.9
? Average Running Position of 15.8, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 95.4, seventh-best
? Series-high 266 Fastest Laps Run
? 583 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.380 mph, fourth-fastest
? 2,088 Laps in the Top 15 (62.3%), ninth-most
? 336 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fifth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx/March of Dimes Toyota)
? Three top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 10.6
? Average Running Position of 12.2, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 95.6, sixth-best
? 102 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? 572 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.127 mph, seventh-fastest
? 2,071 Laps in the Top 15 (68.7%), 10th-most
? 347 Quality Passes, third-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
? One win, six top fives, 10 top 10s
? Average finish of 13.2
? Average Running Position of 13.5, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 88.9, 11th-best
? 86 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
? 555 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.880 mph, 13th-fastest
? 2,228 Laps in the Top 15 (66.5%), fifth-most
? 298 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? One win, four top fives, 10 top 10s
? Average finish of 12.2
? Series-best Average Running Position of 8.5
? Series-best Driver Rating of 106.1
? 239 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 172.575 mph
? 2,778 Laps in the Top 15 (82.9%), second-most
? 328 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet)
? Two top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 12.8
? Average Running Position of 13.3, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 88.5, 12th-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.024 mph, eighth-fastest

Martin Truex Jr. (No. 56 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota)
? One top five, four top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 14.4
? Average Running Position of 13.1, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 88.0, 13th-best
? 553 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.001 mph, 10th-fastest
? 2,005 Laps in the Top 15 (66.5%), 12th-most
? 274 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
? One win, three top fives, seven top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 14.6
? Average Running Position of 10.2, third-best
? Driver Rating of 94.4, eighth-best
? 122 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? 590 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.205 mph, sixth-fastest
? Series-high 2,790 Laps in the Top 15 (83.3%)
? Series-high 421 Quality Passes

TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
? The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was on April 6, 1997, won by Jeff Burton.
? There have been 18 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Texas Motor Speedway.
? Four drivers have competed in all 18 Texas races: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte and Mark Martin.
? 12 drivers have scored poles, led by Dale Earnhardt Jr., Bobby Labonte, Ryan Newman and Jeff Gordon with two.
? 15 drivers have won races, led by Carl Edwards, with three. Jeff Gordon won at Texas for the first time, last season. Gordon has won at every track he has run except Homestead-Miami Speedway.
? 14 of 18 races have been won from a top-10 starting position. Only one has been won from the pole (Kasey Kahne in 2006).
? Matt Kenseth started 31st en route to his victory at Texas in 2002, the deepest in the field that a race winner has started.
? Both Jeff Burton (1999) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (2000) scored their first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series win at Texas.
? Five of the last seven races have had a margin of victory under one second.
? Matt Kenseth (9.3) is the only active driver to average a top-10 finish.
? Roush Fenway Racing leads all owners in victories, with seven. Hendrick Motorsports is second, with three wins.
? There has been one season sweep, by Carl Edwards in 2008. Edwards is looking to break a 43-race winless drought.

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