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Texas Fantasy Forecast

TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Dickies 500
Sunday, November 8, 2009 in Fort Worth, TX

The old-time adage claiming everything is bigger in Texas certainly applies this week when talking about the Dickies 500 and TMS President Eddie Gossage, the man who brought the Wild West to his track’s Victory Lane via cowboy-boot trophies, 10-gallon hats and six-shooters. And a mighty big facility exists too at this 24-degree, 1.5 mile quad-oval in north Fort Worth. Texas Motor Speedway sits on 1,500 acres, can serve 212,470 rabid fans, has enough lighting to illuminate 11 NFL stadiums, and an infield large enough to fit eight Texas Stadiums inside! Awe shucks, the aluminum in the front grandstand alone would be enough to produce 61,000,000 Miller Lite cans!

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers’ success at this track and other 1.5 mile tracks including Lowes and Atlanta, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing. I also factor in key driver stats from their most recent runs at Texas.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 24 Jeff Gordon
3) 17 Matt Kenseth
4) 18 Kyle Busch
5) 14 Tony Stewart
6) 99 Carl Edwards
7) 11 Denny Hamlin
8) 31 Jeff Burton
9) 5 Mark Martin
10) 29 Kevin Harvick
11) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
12) 16 Greg Biffle
13) 2 Kurt Busch
14) 9 Kasey Kahne
15) 33 Clint Bowyer
16) 00 David Reutimann
17) 26 Jamie McMurray
18) 1 Martin Truex Jr.
19) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
20) 39 Ryan Newman
21) 20 Joey Logano
22) 83 Brian Vickers
23) 12 Brad Kesolowski
24) 6 David Ragan
25) 07 Casey Mears

JEFF GORDON: Four-time series champion Jeff Gordon did more than simply win this past April at Texas Motor Speedway. He excised 12 years’ worth of frustration, finally capturing a victory at one of the few tracks where he hadn’t yet triumphed. Sunday, he’ll begin Sunday’s Dickies 500 with larger stakes. In third place in the 2009 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, Gordon trails leader and Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jimmie Johnson by 192 points and second-place (and teammate) Mark Martin by only eight points.

A rigorous climb? Yes, but Gordon does have the chops and stamina to capitalize should Johnson and Martin falter. The April win gave him seven top fives and nine top 10s in 17 Texas starts, plus the confidence to find his way to Victory Lane there. “We had been so close in the past,” Gordon said of his Texas travails. “But, whether it was me hitting the wall late in the race while leading or an electrical issue while leading, we just never were able to win – so to get that first win here was great for us. To get another win, though, we’ll need to take another step forward. If we showed up this weekend with the same setup we used in April, we’d run 15th. That’s just the way the sport is. Everybody is constantly learning and the competition is constantly getting better and quicker.”

KENSETH: Watch out for Matt Kenseth this weekend. He won at Texas in 2002, and has finished in the top 10 in five consecutive Texas races. Kenseth has a series-best Driver Rating of 105.8, an Average Running Position of 9.0 (second-best), 143 Fastest Laps Run (sixth) and a Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 80.8%.

EDWARDS: Also strong at Texas is Carl Edwards, who swept there last season, but is still looking for his first victory of 2009. In his nine-race Texas career, Edwards has a Driver Rating of 102.4 (fourth), an Average Running Position of 11.5 (fifth) and 260 Fastest Laps Run (second).

BIFFLE: Biffle, who is coming off two consecutive top-five finishes at Texas, should factor into Sunday’s victory scenarios. Since 2005 at Texas, Biffle has a Driver Rating of 95.7 (fifth) and a series-high 263 Fastest Laps Run.

KYLE BUSCH: Also an interesting study this weekend is Kyle Busch, who will be with new crew chief Dave Rogers for the first time. Busch failed to make the Chase, and is looking to end a drought of his own: nine races without a victory. Busch has yet to win at Texas, but he’s come close, finishing in the top 10 in four of the last six Texas races. In his nine-race Texas career, Busch has a Driver Rating of 94.8 (seventh), an Average Running Position of 12.9 (eighth), 127 Fastest Laps Run (eighth) and a Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 62.1% (eighth).

KESELOWSKI: Perhaps the biggest news of this weekend comes from the Penske Racing stable with the announcement that Brad Keselowski will take over the No. 12 Penske Racing Dodge for the rest of the season. Keselowski already was to succeed David Stremme in that seat in 2010. Doing so now was deemed important for momentum’s sake. “Penske Racing wants to give Brad an opportunity to work with the team and get to know the race car as we prepare for the 2010 season,” owner Roger Penske said. “These three races will provide a good base for both Brad and the team as we head into next year. Penske Racing also thanks David Stremme for his contributions to the team this year. We wish David the very best moving forward.”

Keselowski, who won the spring NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Talladega for owner James Finch, has run 12 series races this season, five for Finch and seven for Hendrick Motorsports. Next year marks the first full-time NASCAR Sprint Cup season for Keselowski. “I am very excited to begin working with the Penske Racing team and I look forward to competing in the No. 12 Penske Dodge in the final three races of the year,” Keselowski said. “We all have high expectations for next season and beyond, and being able to race with the team this year will only help us as we look toward 2010.”

SELECTED TEXAS DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? One win, six top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 8.5 in 12 races
? Average Running Position of 10.6, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 103.8, third-best
? 180 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.670 mph, second-fastest
? 2,173 Laps in the Top 15 (72.0%), fifth-most
? 270 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), eighth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? One win, seven top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 15.2 in 17 races
? Average Running Position of 14.1, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 92.2, ninth-best
? 136 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? 1,869 Laps in the Top 15 (62.0%), ninth-most
? 249 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? One win, four top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 12.6 in 15 races
? Series-best Average Running Position of 8.8
? Driver Rating of 105.4, second-best
? 229 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 172.715 mph
? 2,445 Laps in the Top 15 (81.1%), second-most
? 286 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? Three wins, three top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 13.4 in nine races
? Average Running Position of 11.5, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 102.4, fourth-best
? 260 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 520 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.583 mph, fifth-fastest
? 2,311 Laps in the Top 15 (76.6%), fourth-most
? 313 Quality Passes, third-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? Two top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 11.6 in eight races
? Average Running Position of 12.3, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 95.2, sixth-best
? 288 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 Kellogg’s/CARQUEST Chevrolet)
? One win, five top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 13.8 in 17 races
? Average Running Position of 14.2, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 86.8, 13th-best
? 496 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? 1,902 Laps in the Top 15 (63.1%), seventh-most
? 243 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)
? Two top 10s
? Average finish of 20.4 in five races
? Average Running Position of 16.1, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 80.2, 17th-best

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? One win, three top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 22.1 in 11 races
? Average Running Position of 16.3, 14th-best
? Driver Rating of 95.7, fifth-best
? Series-high 263 Fastest Laps Run
? 526 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.591 mph, fourth-fastest
? 288 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? One top five, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 14.8 in 13 races
? Average Running Position of 15.0, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 89.3, 10th-best
? 100 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? Series-high 583 Green Flag Passes
? 306 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge)
? One win, two top fives, two top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 21.9 in 10 races
? Average Running Position of 16.6, 16th-best
? Driver Rating of 81.7, 16th-best
? 144 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.082 mph, 12th-fastest

Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
? One win, three top fives, three top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 23.3 in 12 races
? Average Running Position of 23.1, 25th-best
? Driver Rating of 65.8, 23rd-best

Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
? One pole
? Average finish of 22.2 in 10 races
? Average Running Position of 22.1, 22nd-best
? Driver Rating of 65.8, 22nd-best
? 501 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most

TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
? Construction began in 1995.
? The original configuration called for an unusual dual-banking system that had 24 degrees of banking for stock cars and eight degrees for open-wheel cars.
? The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was on April 6, 1997, won by Jeff Burton.
? In 1998, Turn 4 was reshaped to ease the transition from the turns to the front straightaway.
? A second renovation started after the 1998 race which eliminated the dual banking and gave the track its current configuration.
? Four drivers have competed in all 17 Texas races: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte and Mark Martin.
? 12 drivers have scored poles at Texas, led by Dale Earnhardt Jr., Bobby Labonte and Ryan Newman with two each.
? 14 drivers have won races, led by Carl Edwards, with three. Jeff Gordon won at Texas for the first time, in April. Gordon has won at every track he has run except Homestead-Miami Speedway.
? 13 of 17 races have been won from a top-10 starting position. Only one has been won from the pole (Kasey Kahne in 2006).
? Both Jeff Burton (1999) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (2000) scored their first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series win at Texas.
? Five of the last six races have had a margin of victory under one second.
? Jimmie Johnson (8.5) and Matt Kenseth (9.7) each average a top-10 finish.

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