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Talladega Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Good Sam Club 500
THE PLACE: Talladega Superspeedway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, October 23, 2011 – 2:19pm/et, 1:19pm/ct

It’s on to good ol’ boy country this weekend as Cup drivers head south to Talladega, Alabama for the running of the Good Sam Club 500. Alabama International Motor Speedway (as it was called until 1989) ran its first race in 1969, and today it remains the biggest, fastest, most competitive motor sports facility in the world. At 2.66 miles, Talladega Superspeedway is the longest track on the circuit. Add 33 degrees of banking, 48 feet of track width, and carburetor restrictor plates, and you virtually guarantee tight, knuckle-biting competition. Three-wide racing is the norm, and often you’ll see four- and five-wide as they’re jockeying for position. But this excitement comes at a cost even the slightest mistake may cause the “big one”, a wreck that takes out half the field.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 29 Kevin Harvick
2) 18 Kyle Busch
3) 48 Jimmie Johnson
4) 22 Kurt Busch
5) 99 Carl Edwards
6) 33 Clint Bowyer
7) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
8) 31 Jeff Burton
9) 4 Kasey Kahne
10) 2 Brad Keselowski
11) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
12) 6 David Ragan
13) 17 Matt Kenseth
14) 20 Joey Logano
15) 24 Jeff Gordon
16) 16 Greg Biffle
17) 27 Paul Menard
18) 83 Brian Vickers
19) 11 Denny Hamlin
20) 14 Tony Stewart
21) 5 Mark Martin
22) 39 Ryan Newman
23) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
24) 00 David Reutimann
25) 78 Regan Smith

TALLADEGA DRIVER STATS
1 – Carl Edwards (No. 99 SUBWAY Ford)
• One top five, four top 10s
• Average finish of 20.9 in 14 races
• Average Running Position of 23.7, 36th-best
• Driver Rating of 67.8, 28th-best
• 50 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most

2 – Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Jimmy Johns Chevrolet)
• One win, six top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 14.3 in 21 races
• Average Running Position of 18.1, 13th-best
• Driver Rating of 78.9, 16th-best
• 54 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 4,258 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
• 1,137 Laps in the Top 15 (46.0%), 12th-most
• 2,323 Quality Passes, eighth-most

3 – Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Jeremiah Weed Ford)
• Three top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 19.3 in 23 races
• Average Running Position of 16.7, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 82.5, 11th-best
• 4,057 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
• 1,410 Laps in the Top 15 (57.0%), fourth-most
• 3,112 Quality Passes, third-most

4 – Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s – Halloween Toyota)
• One win, one top five, two top 10s
• Average finish of 24.2 in 13 races
• Average Running Position of 18.4, 15th-best
• Driver Rating of 80.3, 15th-best
• 69 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• 3,753 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
• 1,189 Laps in the Top 15 (48.1%), seventh-most
• 2,284 Quality Passes, ninth-most

5 – Tony Stewart (No. 14 El Monterey / Office Depot Chevrolet)
• One win, nine top fives, 12 top 10s
• Average finish of 15.5 in 25 races
• Average Running Position of 17.2, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 82.5, 10th-best
• 56 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• 3,922 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 191.849 mph, 12th-fastest
• 1,157 Laps in the Top 15 (46.8%), 10th-most

6 – Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
• One win, one top five, three top 10s
• Average finish of 17.2 in five races
• Average Running Position of 19.0, 17th-best
• Driver Rating of 80.8, 13th-best

7 – Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• Six top fives, 13 top 10s
• Average finish of 13.9 in 21 races
• Average Running Position of 15.2, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 86.9, sixth-best
• 4,405 Green Flag Passes, third-most
• 1,526 Laps in the Top 15 (61.7%), second-most
• 3,207 Quality Passes, second-most

8 – Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 My Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• Two wins, five top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 16.4 in 19 races
• Average Running Position of 17.1, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 83.8, ninth-best
• 1,257 Laps in the Top 15 (50.8%), fifth-most
• 2,568 Quality Passes, fifth-most

9 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 Diet Mountain Dew Paint The 88 / National Guard Chevrolet)
• Five wins, nine top fives, 12 top 10s
• Average finish of 14.6 in 23 races
• Average Running Position of 14.3, second-best
• Series-best Driver Rating of 92.7
• 60 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• 4,320 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 192.048 mph, fourth-fastest
• Series-high 1,580 Laps in the Top 15 (63.9%)
• 3,075 Quality Passes, fourth-most

10 – Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
• Four top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 20.8 in 19 races
• Average Running Position of 20.5, 21st-best
• Driver Rating of 74.0, 21st-best
• 3,826 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
• 2,056 Quality Passes, 12th-most

11 – Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet)
• Six wins, 14 top fives, 18 top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 16.1 in 37 races
• Average Running Position of 18.2, 14th-best
• Driver Rating of 84.4, eighth-best
• 1,213 Laps in the Top 15 (49.0%), sixth-most
• 2,009 Quality Passes, 13th-most

12 – Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Office Toyota)
• Three top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 18.7 in 11 races
• Average Running Position of 15.1, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 90.9, second-best
• 50 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• 3,651 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 191.940 mph, seventh-fastest
• 1,152 Laps in the Top 15 (55.1%), 11th-most
• 2,409 Quality Passes, sixth-most

TALLADEGA HIGHLIGHTS
• Richard Brickhouse won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race in1969.
• Jeff Gordon leads all other active drivers in victories, with six. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is second among active drivers in victories with five.
• Richard Childress Racing and Hendrick Motorsports have won more than any other organization at Talladega with 11 wins each.
• 33 of 84 races have been won from the top-two starting positions, including 13 from the pole; 23 have been won from a starting position outside the top 10.
• Mark Martin’s pace in the 1997 spring race set an all-time NASCAR Sprint Cup record for the fastest race ever. He won the caution-free race with an average speed of 188.354 mph and covered the 500-mile distance in two hours, 39 minutes and 18 seconds.
• The 2010 spring race set the all-time and track records for lead changes (88) and lap leaders (29). The lead change record was matched last April. The previous highs were 75 lead changes (set on May 6, 1984) and 28 lap leaders (set on Oct. 5, 2008). Both previous records also were set at Talladega.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. had four consecutive victories (October 2001 through April 2003), the most ever by a driver there. Buddy Baker (three – May 1975 through May 1976) is the only other driver to win more than two consecutive races there.
• Since the inception of electronic scoring in 1993, every race that has ended under green has had a margin of victory under half a second.
• The season’s spring race tied the March 16, 2003 Darlington race won by Ricky Craven for the all-time record of the closest series finish (0.002 seconds) since the inception of electronic scoring.

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