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Talladega Fantasy Forecast

CUP CORNER

TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY

Aaron’s 499
Sunday, April 25, 2010 in Talladega, AL

It’s on to good ol’ boy country this weekend as Cup drivers head south to Talladega, Alabama for the running of the Aaron’s 499. Alabama International Motor Speedway (as it was called until 1989) ran its first race in 1969, and today it remains the biggest, fastest, most competitive motor sports facility in the world. At 2.66 miles, Talladega Superspeedway is the longest track on the circuit. Add 33 degrees of banking, 48 feet of track width, and carburetor restrictor plates, and you virtually guarantee tight, knuckle-biting competition. Three-wide racing is the norm, and often you’ll see four- and five-wide as they’re jockeying for position. But this excitement comes at a cost even the slightest mistake may cause the “big one”, a wreck that takes out half the field.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. My top twenty-five list utilizes an exclusive formula I’ve developed over years of analyzing races. It factors in drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 24 Jeff Gordon
3) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
4) 2 Kurt Busch
5) 18 Kyle Busch
6) 11 Denny Hamlin
7) 39 Ryan Newman
8) 14 Tony Stewart
9) 20 Joey Logano
10) 17 Matt Kenseth
11) 16 Greg Biffle
12) 6 David Ragan
13) 29 Kevin Harvick
14) 12 Brad Keselowski
15) 33 Clint Bowyer
16) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
17) 31 Jeff Burton
18) 83 Brian Vickers
19) 99 Carl Edwards
20) 1 Jamie McMurray
21) 47 Marcos Ambrose
22) 19 Elliott Sadler
23) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
24) 9 Kasey Kahne
25) 5 Mark Martin

TALLADEGA DRIVER STATS
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Six wins, 13 top fives, 16 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 16.5
? Average Running Position of 17.4, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 87.1, eighth-best
? 1,048 Laps in the Top 15 (55.2%), sixth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
? Five wins, eight top fives, 11 top 10s
? Average finish of 14.0
? Average Running Position of 14.5, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 92.2, third-best
? 47 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? 3,203 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 192.416 mph, third-fastest
? Series-high 1,209 Laps in the Top 15 (63.7%)
? 2,212 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? Six top fives, 12 top 10s
? Average finish of 13.1
? Average Running Position of 15.9, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 85.6, 11th-best
? 31 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
? 3,219 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? 1,131 Laps in the Top 15 (59.6%), third-most
? 2,312 Quality Passes, third-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx/March of Dimes Toyota)
? Two top fives, two top 10s
? Average finish of 21.3
? Average Running Position of 14.2, third-best
? Driver Rating of 93.4, second-best
? 34 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 192.356 mph, seventh-fastest
? 891 Laps in the Top 15 (58.9%), 11th-most
? 1,711 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? One win, nine top fives, 12 top 10s
? Average finish of 14.7
? Average Running Position of 14.3, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 89.9, sixth-best
? 47 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? 3,319 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 192.337 mph, eighth-fastest
? 1,063 Laps in the Top 15 (56.0%), fifth-most
? 1,774 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Joey Logano (No. 20 The Home Depot Toyota)
? One top five, two top 10s
? Average finish of 6.0
? Average Running Position of 13.9, second-best
? Driver Rating of 90.0, fifth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 192.379 mph, fifth-fastest

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
? Three top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 18.3
? Average Running Position of 15.3, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 85.7, 10th-best
? 3,260 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
? 1,182 Laps in the Top 15 (62.3%), second-most
? 2,563 Quality Passes, second-most

David Ragan (No. 6 UPS Ford)
? Two top fives, two top 10s
? Average finish of 14.5
? Average Running Position of 15.9, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 91.8, fourth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 192.387 mph, fourth-fastest

Brad Keselowski (No. 12 Abyss Dodge)
? One win, one top five, two top 10s
? Average finish of 4.5
? Average Running Position of 15.5, seventh-best
? Series-best Driver Rating of 94.2
? Average Green Flag Speed of 192.476 mph, second-fastest

Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)
? One top five, one top 10; one pole
? Average finish of 18.7
? Series-best Average Running Position of 13.3
? Driver Rating of 83.8, 13th-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 192.300 mph, ninth-fastest

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? Four top fives, 13 top 10s
? Average finish of 17.9
? Driver Rating of 85.8, ninth-best
? Series-high 3,822 Green Flag Passes
? 1,022 Laps in the Top 15 (53.9%), eighth-most
? Series-high 2,566 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green)

Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
? One win, three top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 19.1
? Average Running Position of 15.7, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 89.3, seventh-best
? 2,746 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
? 1,035 Laps in the Top 15 (60.7%), seventh-most
? 1,980 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Jamie McMurray (No. 1 Bass Pro Shops/Tracker Chevrolet)
? One win, four top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 19.2
? Driver Rating of 84.5, 12th-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 192.270 mph, 11th-fastest
? 929 Laps in the Top 15 (49.0%), 10th-most
? 1,643 Quality Passes, 13th-most

TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
? The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held on Sept. 14, 1969, won by Richard Brickhouse.
? The name changed to Talladega Superspeedway in 1989.
? 35 different drivers have won poles. Juan Pablo Montoya won the pole for last season’s spring race, his first career pole.
? 39 different drivers have posted victories, led by Dale Earnhardt Sr. (10). Eighteen drivers have won more than once. Brad Keselowski became a first-time NASCAR Sprint Cup winner last season.
? Jeff Gordon leads all other active drivers in victories, with six.
? Hendrick Motorsports has won 10 races, more than any other organization. Richard Childress Racing, with nine wins, can match that mark this weekend.
? 31 of 81 races have been won from a top-two starting position, including 13 from the pole; 23 have been won from a starting position outside the top 10. The most recent driver to win from the pole was Jeff Gordon in 2007 (spring).
? The furthest back in the field a race winner started was 36th, by Jeff Gordon in 2000.
? Mark Martin’s pace in the 1997 spring race set an all-time NASCAR Sprint Cup record for the fastest race ever. He won the caution-free race with an average speed of 188.354 mph and covered the 500-mile distance in two hours, 39 minutes and 18 seconds.
? Dale Earnhardt Jr. had four consecutive victories (October 2001 through April 2003), the most ever by a driver there. Buddy Baker (three – May 1975 through May 1976) is the only other driver to win more than two consecutive races there.
? Since the inception of electronic scoring in 1993, every race that has ended under green has had a margin of victory under half a second.

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