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Talladega Fantasy Forecast

TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY
Amp Energy 500
Sunday, November 1, 2009 in Talladega, AL

It’s on to good ol’ boy country this weekend as Cup drivers head south to Talladega, Alabama for the running of the Amp Energy 500. Alabama International Motor Speedway (as it was called until 1989) ran its first race in 1969, and today it remains the biggest, fastest, most competitive motor sports facility in the world. At 2.66 miles, Talladega Superspeedway is the longest track on the circuit. Add 33 degrees of banking, 48 feet of track width, and carburetor restrictor plates, and you virtually guarantee tight, knuckle-biting competition. Three-wide racing is the norm, and often you’ll see four- and five-wide as they’re jockeying for position. But this excitement comes at a cost even the slightest mistake may cause the “big one”, a wreck that takes out half the field.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers’ success at this track and NASCAR’s other restrictor-plate track, Daytona, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing. I also factor in key driver stats from their most recent runs at Talladega.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 14 Tony Stewart
3) 2 Kurt Busch
4) 24 Jeff Gordon
5) 17 Matt Kenseth
6) 11 Denny Hamlin
7) 18 Kyle Busch
8) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
9) 6 David Ragan
10) 39 Ryan Newman
11) 83 Brian Vickers
12) 5 Mark Martin
13) 99 Carl Edwards
14) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
15) 19 Elliott Sadler
16) 09 Brad Keselowski
17) 07 Casey Mears
18) 31 Jeff Burton
19) 33 Clint Bowyer
20) 29 Kevin Harvick
21) 9 Kasey Kahne
22) 16 Greg Biffle
23) 20 Joey Logano
24) 1 Martin Truex Jr.
25) 47 Marcos Ambrose

The seventh race of the 2009 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, at Talladega, will truly be the wild card event. Anything can happen, as restrictor-plate racing sets up for a new set of skills and a new set of challenges.

The statistics tell the story. For instance, over this season’s first three restrictor-plate races, five of the top 10 drivers in Driver Rating are non-Chasers. Denny Hamlin ranks first in restrictor plate Driver Rating this season, averaging a 110.8 in the two Daytona races and the first Talladega race. Of those drivers who have driven more than one Talladega race since 2005, Hamlin ranks first in Driver Rating (94.8), second in Average Running Position (13.6) and seventh in Laps in the Top 15 percentage (60.1%). If Hamlin wins this Sunday, he’ll win consecutive NASCAR Sprint Cup races for the first time in his career.

It’ll also mean he keeps playing spoiler to Jimmie Johnson’s bid for four-in-a-row. Johnson enjoys a 118-point lead, but heads to one of his worst tracks in the series. His 84.1 Talladega Driver Rating makes the track his third-worst. This season in restrictor-plate races, Johnson hasn’t fared that much better (at least by his high standards). In the three plate races this season, Johnson has only one top five, at the July Daytona race. That goes along with an average finish of 21.0, a Driver Rating of 90.3, two Laps Led, nine Fastest Laps Run and an Average Running Position of 11.5.

The good news for Johnson is that the two closest contenders – second-place Mark Martin and third-place Jeff Gordon – have worse numbers this season in the restrictor-plate races. In the first three races, Gordon has averaged a finish of 26.0, a Driver Rating of 67.8 and an Average Running Position of 21.8. His Driver Rating ranks 21st among all drivers in plate races.

Martin’s name sits even further down the stat sheet. In the three races, he has averaged a finish of 32.3, a Driver Rating of 63.7 and an Average Running Position of 29.8. His Driver Rating ranks 25th among all drivers in plate races. Plus, because of the inherent unpredictability at Talladega, Mark Martin labels this race “The Lotto.”

SELECTED TALLADEGA DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? One win, four top fives, six top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 17.7 in 15 races
? Average Running Position of 16.4, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 84.1, 11th-best
? 956 Laps in the Top 15 (56.0%), sixth-most
? 1,895 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fifth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? One win, nine top fives, 12 top 10s
? Average finish of 13.8 in 21 races
? Average Running Position of 13.3, second-best
? Driver Rating of 92.4, third-best
? 37 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 2,955 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 192.544 mph, 10th-fastest
? 1,034 Laps in the Top 15 (60.6%), fourth-most
? 1,661 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? Six top fives, 12 top 10s
? Average finish of 12.1 in 17 races
? Average Running Position of 14.7, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 87.7, eighth-best
? 2,969 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? Series-high 1,100 Laps in the Top 15 (64.5%)
? 2,226 Quality Passes, third-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Six wins, 13 top fives, 16 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 16.4 in 33 races
? Average Running Position of 18.2, 14th-best
? Driver Rating of 85.9, 10th-best
? 916 Laps in the Top 15 (53.7%), eighth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? Two top fives, two top 10s
? Average finish of 18.9 in seven races
? Average Running Position of 13.6, third-best
? Driver Rating of 94.8, second-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 192.565 mph, ninth-fastest
? 795 Laps in the Top 15 (60.1%), 11th-most
? 1,495 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)
? One top five, one top 10; one pole
? Average finish of 18.6 in five races
? Average Running Position of 13.6, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 81.0, 15th-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 192.510 mph, 11th-fastest

Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
? Four top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 18.5 in 15 races
? Average Running Position of 19.5, 18th-best
? Driver Rating of 80.0, 17th-best
? 2,745 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? 740 Laps in the Top 15 (43.4%), 13th-most
? 1,576 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
? One win, three top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 19.7 in 10 races
? Average Running Position of 15.8, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 90.1, sixth-best
? 926 Laps in the Top 15 (61.2%), seventh-most
? 1,682 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 Kellogg’s/CARQUEST Chevrolet)
? Two wins, 10 top fives, 22 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 16.1 in 43 races
? Average Running Position of 29.9, 48th-best
? Driver Rating of 58.7, 43rd-best

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? One top five, three top 10s
? Average finish of 24.5 in 10 races
? Average Running Position of 24.4, 39th-best
? Driver Rating of 67.3, 29th-best
? 31 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge)
? One top five, one top 10
? Average finish of 23.5 in 11 races
? Average Running Position of 22.3, 30th-best
? Driver Rating of 65.0, 34th-best
? 2,691 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? One top 10
? Average finish of 23.8 in 13 races
? Average Running Position of 23.6, 36th-best
? Driver Rating of 67.4, 28th-best
? 34 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most

OTHER TALLADEGA HIGHLIGHTS
? Richard Brickhouse won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race in September 1969.
? 35 different drivers have won poles. Juan Pablo Montoya won the pole in this season’s spring race, his first career pole.
? 38 different drivers have posted victories, led by Dale Earnhardt Sr. (10). Eighteen drivers have won more than once. Brad Keselowski became a first-time NASCAR Sprint Cup winner with his win earlier this season.
? Jeff Gordon leads all other active drivers in victories, with six.
? Hendrick Motorsports has won 10 races, more than any other organization.
? 31 of 80 races have been won from a top-two starting position, including 13 from the pole; 22 have been won from a starting position outside the top 10. The most recent driver to win from the pole was Jeff Gordon in 2007 (spring).
? Mark Martin’s pace in the 1997 spring race set an all-time NASCAR Sprint Cup record for the fastest race ever. He won the caution-free race with an average speed of 188.354 mph and covered the 500-mile distance in two hours, 39 minutes and 18 seconds.
? Dale Earnhardt Jr. had four consecutive victories (October 2001 through April 2003), the most ever by a driver there. Buddy Baker (three – May 1975 through May 1976) is the only other driver to win more than two consecutive races there.
? Since the inception of electronic scoring in 1993, every race that has ended under green has had a margin of victory under one second.

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