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Richmond Fantasy Forecast

RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

Crown Royal Presents the Dan Lowry 400

It?s back to old-fashioned Saturday night at the races this weekend as Sprint Cup drivers head to Richmond Virginia for the running of the ?Crown Royal Presents the Dan Lowry 400?. This ? mile oval is sized like a short track but races like a superspeedway. 400 laps are on tap at this low-banked (14 degrees), D-shaped oval.

Who?s Dan Lowry you might ask? He?s the namesake of this week?s Sprint Cup race at Richmond. For the second consecutive season, Crown Royal sponsored a contest inviting fans to submit an essay stating how they enjoyed Crown Royal in a responsible manner. Dan Lowry, a 29-year-old electrical product engineer from Ohio, became this year?s winner thanks to an essay he wrote chronicling his favorite responsible Crown Royal memory when he spent time working in Venezuela, and how recognizing the Crown Royal bottle amidst labels he didn?t recognize made him feel like home wasn?t so far away.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Saturday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers? success at this track and other similar tracks, such as Martinsville, Bristol, New Hampshire and Phoenix, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing.

TOP TWENTY
1) 11 Denny Hamlin
2) 18 Kyle Busch
3) 20 Tony Stewart
4) 48 Jimmie Johnson
5) 29 Kevin Harvick
6) 07 Clint Bowyer
7) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
8) 31 Jeff Burton
9) 12 Ryan Newman
10) 16 Greg Biffle
11) 8 Mark Martin
12) 24 Jeff Gordon
13) 17 Matt Kenseth
14) 99 Carl Edwards
15) 9 Kasey Kahne
16) 6 David Ragan
17) 5 Casey Mears
18) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
19) 1 Martin Truex Jr.
20) 2 Kurt Busch

Twice a year, Denny Hamlin returns home trying to conquer Richmond International Raceway ? his most coveted checkered flag. Hamlin hails from nearby Chesterfield, Virginia, and the Sprint Cup races that Richmond hosts are the two he pines for most. ?When I do have a good run at Richmond it means just a little bit more there than it does anywhere else,? Hamlin said. ?That is in the woods of my hometown right there, 15 minutes away. And so I’m going to have a lot of friends and family out there. Everyone knows that this is my Indy, I guess you could say.?

He?s come incredibly close in each of his four visits. Hamlin almost accomplished the goal in his first try. During his 2006 rookie year, Hamlin finished second to Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the spring Richmond race, leading until lap 348 of the 400-lap race. Plus, he?s posted four consecutive top-five finishes.

Fresh off his thrilling victory an Talladega last Sunday, soon-to-be 23-year-old Kyle Busch (his birthday is Friday) approaches this weekend?s race seeking a short-track victory to complete a ?series circuit ? ? a victory at each size track on NASCAR?s national series schedules. Busch leads all active drivers with seven wins spread across the three national series. Already this year, Busch has won on a restrictor-plate track (Talladega), a road course (Mexico City), a one-mile track (Phoenix), a two-mile track (California), and two 1.5-mile tracks (Texas and Atlanta).

SELECTED RICHMOND DRIVER STATS
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? Two top fives, three top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 6.5
? Average Running Position of 6.0, second -best
? Driver Rating of 111.3, second-best
? 58 Fastest Laps Run, tied for 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 118.820 mph, second-fastest
? Series-best percentage of Laps in the Top 15 ? 98.1% for a total of 1,570
? 104 Quality Passes (average of 26.0 per race), fourth-best average

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Pedigree Toyota)
? Five top fives
? Average finish of 6.2
? Average Running Position of 7.8, third-best
? Driver Rating of 109.0, third-best
? 163 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 118.779 mph, third-fastest
? 2,077 (86.5%) Laps in the Top 15, third-most
? 153 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), second-most

Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
? Three wins, six top fives, 12 top 10s
? Average finish of 11.3
? Average Running Position of 9.6, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 102.2, fourth-best
? 130 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 118.775, fourth-fastest
? 1,903 (79.3%) Laps in the Top 15, fourth-most
? 133 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? One win, four top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 12.1
? Series-best Average Running Position of 5.6
? Series-best Driver Rating of 121.2
? Series-high 259 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-fastest Average Green Flag Speed of 118.997
? Series-high 2,267 (94.5%) Laps in the Top 15
? Series-high 166 Quality Passes

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
? Three wins, seven top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 11.3
? Average Running Position of 12.9, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 89.9, 10th-best
? 96 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? Series-high 334 Green Flag Passes
? 1,401 (58.4%) Laps in the Top 15, 10th-most
? 124 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 12 Alltel Dodge)
? One win, four top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 11.1
? Average Running Position of 9.9, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 95.4, seventh-best
? 2,104 (87.7%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
? 136 Quality Passes, tied for third-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 Dish Network Ford)
? Two top fives, five top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 16.0
? Average Running Position of 13.9, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.2, eighth-best
? 81 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 118.612 mph, seventh-fastest
? 1,744 (72.7%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-most
? 113 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), tied for ninth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge)
? One win, two top fives, four top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 18.2
? Average Running Position of 15.5, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 97.9, sixth-best
? 216 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 1,454 (60.6%) Laps in the Top 15, ninth-most
? 113 Quality Passes, tied for ninth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? One win, two top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 18.1
? Average Running Position of 13.3, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 100.8, fifth-best
? 187 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 118.715 mph, fifth-fastest
? 1,574 (65.6%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-most
? 136 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), tied for third-most

RICHMOND HIGHLIGHTS
? Richmond International Raceway held its first race in 1946 as a half-mile dirt track.
? The first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race was held on April 19, 1953, won by Lee Petty.
? The track surface was changed from dirt to asphalt between spring and fall races in 1968.
? There have been 46 different pole winners led by Bobby Allison and Richard Petty (eight).
? Jeff Gordon leads the active drivers with five poles.
? 44 different drivers have posted victories led by Richard Petty (13).
? Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Tony Stewart lead the active race winners with three each.
? Petty Enterprises has won 15 races at Richmond, more than any other organization.
? 59 of 103 races have been won from the top-five starting positions, including 21 from the pole.
? The last 10 races have been won from the top 10 starting positions.
? Kyle Petty became the first third-generation NASCAR race winner when he won his first race ? at Richmond ? on February 23, 1986. Richard posted his first Richmond victory in 1961 and Lee won the very first Richmond race in 1953.
? There has been a different pole winner in each of the past 10 races at Richmond.

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