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Richmond Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Wonderful Pistachios 400
THE PLACE: Richmond International Raceway
GREEN FLAG: Saturday, September 10, 2011 – 7:43pm/et, 6:43/ct

It’s back to old-fashioned Saturday night at the races this weekend as Sprint Cup drivers head to Richmond Virginia for the second and final time this season. Drivers will make 400 circuits around this low-banked (14 degrees), 3/4-mile D-shaped oval. This is the final race for drivers to qualify for the 12-driver, 10-race Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. With multiple teams either on the bubble or still in contention for a Chase birth, fans have reason to be keyed up.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 18 Kyle Busch
2) 24 Jeff Gordon
3) 48 Jimmie Johnson
4) 11 Denny Hamlin
5) 39 Ryan Newman
6) 33 Clint Bowyer
7) 29 Kevin Harvick
8) 99 Carl Edwards
9) 14 Tony Stewart
10) 2 Brad Keselowski
11) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
12) 5 Mark Martin
13) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
14) 17 Matt Kenseth
15) 31 Jeff Burton
16) 4 Kasey Kahne
17) 20 Joey Logano
18) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
19) 22 Kurt Busch
20) 9 Marcos Ambrose
21) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
22) 1 Jamie McMurray
23) 83 Brian Vickers
24) 16 Greg Biffle
25) 6 David Ragan

RICHMOND DRIVER STATS
Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet)
• One win, one top five, six top 10s
• Average finish of 9.5
• Average Running Position of 10.5, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 97.9, fourth-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.499 mph, seventh-fastest
• 3,471 Laps in the Top 15 (78.7%), seventh-most
• 345 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fourth-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
• One win, nine top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 14.4
• Average Running Position of 15.2, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 86.6, 12th-best
• 613 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
• 3,267 Laps in the Top 15 (62.7%), eighth-most
• 298 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• One win, three top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 18.0
• Average Running Position of 14.6, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 91.2, ninth-best
• 272 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.527 mph, fifth-fastest
• 3,114 Laps in the Top 15 (59.8%), 10th-most
• 323 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
• Three wins, 11 top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 4.9
• Average Running Position of 7.1, second-best
• Driver Rating of 116.0, second-best
• 440 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.938 mph, second-fastest
• 4,641 Laps in the Top 15 (89.1%), second-most
• 369 Quality Passes, second-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
• Three wins, eight top fives, 10 top 10s
• Average finish of 14.3
• Average Running Position of 15.8, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 84.2, 13th-best
• 265 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 678 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• 275 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet)
• Two wins, 14 top fives, 23 top 10s; five poles
• Average finish of 14.8
• Average Running Position of 13.1, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 97.8, fifth-best
• 269 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.516 mph, sixth-fastest
• 3,492 Laps in the Top 15 (67.0%), sixth-most
• 282 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Express Toyota)
• Two wins, six top fives, seven top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 7.5
• Series-best Average Running Position of 5.2
• Series-best Driver Rating of 120.4
• Series-high 493 Fastest Laps Run
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 117.024 mph
• 4,215 Laps in the Top 15 (95.6%), third-most
• 317 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)
• One win, five top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 12.0
• Average Running Position of 7.7, third-best
• Driver Rating of 110.2, third-best
• 358 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.801 mph, third-fastest
• Series-high 4,768 Laps in the Top 15 (91.5%)
• Series-high 420 Quality Passes

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Power of Pride Chevrolet)
• Three wins, five top fives, seven top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 16.5
• Average Running Position of 16.2, 12th-best
• Driver Rating of 88.7, 10th-best
• 173 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.332 mph, 11th-fastest
• 2,843 Laps in the Top 15 (54.6%), 12th-most
• 285 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 4 Red Bull Toyota)
• One win, three top fives, six top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 17.9
• Driver Rating of 88.2, 11th-best
• 258 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 617 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.365 mph, 10th-fastest
• 2,978 Laps in the Top 15 (57.2%), 11th-most
• 291 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 Quaker State/GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
• One win, 17 top fives, 27 top 10s; four poles
• Average finish of 12.2
• Average Running Position of 13.4, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 92.2, eighth-best
• 149 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.482 mph, eighth-fastest
• 3,169 Laps in the Top 15 (60.8%), ninth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
• One win, five top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 11.8
• Average Running Position of 11.1, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 92.6, seventh-best
• 586 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.415 mph, ninth-fastest
• 4,177 Laps in the Top 15 (80.2%), fourth-most
• 362 Quality Passes, third-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)
• Three wins, nine top fives, 16 top 10s
• Average finish of 11.0
• Average Running Position of 12.2, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 95.9, sixth-best
• 197 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 627 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.612 mph, fourth-fastest
• 3,637 Laps in the Top 15 (69.8%), fifth-most
• 343 Quality Passes, fifth-most

RICHMOND HIGHLIGHTS
• Lee Petty won the first race in April 1953.
• Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with five poles.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, Terry Labonte and Jimmie Johnson lead active race winners with three wins.
• 63 of 110 races have been won from the top five starting positions, including 22 from the pole.
• The last driver to win from the pole was Kyle Busch in 2010.
• The furthest back in the field a race winner has started was 31st, by Clint Bowyer in the 2008 spring race.
• Kyle Busch (4.9), Denny Hamlin (7.5) and Clint Bowyer (9.5) are the only active drivers with an average finish in the top 10.
• Three of the last four races have had a margin of victory less than one second.
• Four drivers have come from outside the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup cut-off to make the Chase at Richmond: Jeremy Mayfield in 2004, Ryan Newman in 2005, Kasey Kahne in 2006, and Brian Vickers in 2009.

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