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Richmond Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Crown Royal Presents the Matthew and Daniel Hansen 400
THE PLACE: Richmond International Raceway
GREEN FLAG: Saturday, April 30, 2011 – 7:43pm/et, 6:43pm/ct

It’s back to old-fashioned Saturday night at the races this weekend as Sprint Cup drivers head to Richmond Virginia for the running of the Crown Royal 400. This ? mile oval is sized like a short track but races like a superspeedway. 400 laps are on tap at this low-banked (14 degrees), D-shaped oval.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 18 Kyle Busch
2) 48 Jimmie Johnson
3) 29 Kevin Harvick
4) 33 Clint Bowyer
5) 24 Jeff Gordon
6) 39 Ryan Newman
7) 99 Carl Edwards
8) 11 Denny Hamlin
9) 22 Kurt Busch
10) 14 Tony Stewart
11) 17 Matt Kenseth
12) 31 Jeff Burton
13) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
14) 5 Mark Martin
15) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
16) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
17) 16 Greg Biffle
18) 9 Marcos Ambrose
19) 1 Jamie McMurray
20) 20 Joey Logano
21) 4 Kasey Kahne
22) 00 David Reutimann
23) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
24) 2 Brad Keselowski
25) 83 Brian Vickers

RICHMOND DRIVER STATS
Kyle Busch (No. 18 Pedigree Toyota)
• Two wins, 10 top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 5.3
• Average Running Position of 7.4, third-best
• Driver Rating of 113.8, second-best
• 368 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.875 mph, second-fastest
• 4,253 Laps in the Top 15 (88.4%), second-most
• 332 Quality Passes, second-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• Three wins, five top fives, six top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 16.9
• Average Running Position of 15.7, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 89.9, 10th-best
• 170 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.325 mph, 10th-fastest
• 2,743 Laps in the Top 15 (57.0%), 11th-most
• 268 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)
• One win, five top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 12.0
• Average Running Position of 7.3, second-best
• Driver Rating of 112.1, third-best
• 358 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.834 mph, third-fastest
• Series-high 4,425 Laps in the Top 15 (92.0%)
• Series-high 379 Quality Passes

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 BB&T Chevrolet)
• One win, one top five, five top 10s
• Average finish of 9.8
• Average Running Position of 10.9, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 96.6, sixth-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.443 mph, eighth-fastest
• 3,076 Laps in the Top 15 (76.7%), ninth-most
• 309 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), sixth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive to End Hunger/AARP Chevrolet)
• Two wins, 14 top fives, 23 top 10s; five poles
• Average finish of 14.1
• Average Running Position of 13.1, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 97.8, fourth-best
• 247 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.445 mph, seventh-fastest
• 3,194 Laps in the Top 15 (66.4%), sixth-most
• 252 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 Haas Automation Chevrolet)
• One win, five top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 11.4
• Average Running Position of 11.1, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 93.4, eighth-best
• 527 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.425 mph, ninth-fastest
• 3,868 Laps in the Top 15 (80.4%), third-most
• 318 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Ground Toyota)
• Two wins, five top fives, six top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 8.0
• Series-best Average Running Position of 5.4
• Series-best Driver Rating of 119.8
• Series-high 440 Fastest Laps Run
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 116.967 mph
• 3,815 Laps in the Top 15 (95.1%), fourth-most
• 288 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• One win, three top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 17.8
• Average Running Position of 13.5, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 94.1, seventh-best
• 269 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• 537 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.562 mph, fifth-fastest
• 3,114 Laps in the Top 15 (64.7%), eighth-most
• 323 Quality Passes, third-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)
• Three wins, nine top fives, 15 top 10s
• Average finish of 11.1
• Average Running Position of 11.6, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 97.4, fifth-best
• 196 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 557 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.627 mph, fourth-fastest
• 3,525 Laps in the Top 15 (73.3%), fifth-most
• 319 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
• One win, nine top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 14.4
• Average Running Position of 14.9, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 86.7, 11th-best
• 542 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.276 mph, 12th-fastest
• 3,171 Laps in the Top 15 (65.9%), seventh-most
• 291 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
• Three wins, eight top fives, 10 top 10s
• Average finish of 14.1
• Average Running Position of 15.7, 12th-best
• Driver Rating of 85.6, 13th-best
• 263 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• 609 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.266 mph, 13th-fastest

Mark Martin (No. 5 Quaker State/GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
• One win, 17 top fives, 27 top 10s; four poles
• Average finish of 12.2
• Average Running Position of 13.8, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 91.6, ninth-best
• 145 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.445 mph, sixth-fastest
• 2,865 Laps in the Top 15 (59.6%), 10th-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 4 Red Bull Toyota)
• One win, two top fives, five top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 19.0
• Driver Rating of 85.9, 12th-best
• 235 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 571 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 116.292 mph, 11th-fastest
• 2,582 Laps in the Top 15 (53.7%), 12th-most
• 254 Quality Passes, 10th-most

RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY HIGHLIGHTS
• Lee Petty won the first race in April 1953.
• Jeff Gordon (five) leads active drivers with five poles.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson and Terry Labonte (three) lead active race winners.
• 63 of 109 races have been won from the top five starting positions, including 22 from the pole.
• The last driver to win from the pole was Kyle Busch in May 2010.
• 13 of the past 16 races have been won from the top 10, but three of the last six have been won from a starting position outside the top 10.
• Three active drivers have a finish inside the top 10: Kyle Busch (5.2), Denny Hamlin (8.0) and Clint Bowyer (9.8).
• Five of the last six races have had a margin of victory less than one second.

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