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Richmond Fantasy Forecast

RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY
Air Guard 400
Saturday, September 11, 2010 in Richmond, VA

It’s back to old-fashioned Saturday night at the races this weekend as Sprint Cup drivers head to Richmond Virginia for the running of the Air Guard 400. This ? mile oval is sized like a short track but races like a superspeedway. 400 laps are on tap at this low-banked (14 degrees), D-shaped oval.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on a statistical formula I’ve developed over years of analyzing races. It factors in drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 24 Jeff Gordon
2) 18 Kyle Busch
3) 48 Jimmie Johnson
4) 11 Denny Hamlin
5) 39 Ryan Newman
6) 14 Tony Stewart
7) 33 Clint Bowyer
8) 29 Kevin Harvick
9) 2 Kurt Busch
10) 99 Carl Edwards
11) 31 Jeff Burton
12) 5 Mark Martin
13) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
14) 47 Marcos Ambrose
15) 17 Matt Kenseth
16) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
17) 20 Joey Logano
18) 9 Kasey Kahne
19) 16 Greg Biffle
20) 00 David Reutimann
21) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
22) 1 Jamie McMurray
23) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
24) 77 Sam Hornish Jr.
25) 6 David Ragan

RICHMOND DRIVER STATS
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Second in points
? Two wins, 14 top fives, 23 top 10s; five poles
? Average finish of 14.2
? Average Running Position of 12.6, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 99.5, fourth-best
? 239 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 116.679 mph, seventh-fastest
? 3,138 Laps in the Top 15 (71.2%), sixth-most
? 235 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Doublemint Toyota)
? Third in points
? Two wins, nine top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 5.5
? Average Running Position of 7.2, third-best
? Driver Rating of 114.1, second-best
? 336 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 117.104 mph, second-fastest
? 3,937 Laps in the Top 15 (89.3%), second-most
? 309 Quality Passes, second-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Seventh in points
? Three wins, four top fives, five top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 17.8
? Driver Rating of 87.0, 12th-best
? 137 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? 2,343 Laps in the Top 15 (53.1%), 13th-most
? 246 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? 10th in points
? One win, four top fives, five top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 8.8
? Series-best Average Running Position of 5.5
? Series-best Driver Rating of 117.4
? Series-high 354 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 117.171 mph
? 3,445 Laps in the Top 15 (95.4%), fourth-most
? 265 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 Wix Filters Chevrolet)
? 13th in points
? One win, five top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 11.4
? Average Running Position of 10.9, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.8, eighth-best
? 3,618 Laps in the Top 15 (82.0%), third-most
? 292 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Fourth in points
? Three wins, nine top fives, 15 top 10s
? Average finish of 10.9
? Average Running Position of 11.7, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 98.2, fifth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 116.874 mph, fourth-fastest
? 3,175 Laps in the Top 15 (72.0%), fifth-most
? 288 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Hamburger Helper Chevrolet)
? 12th in points entering Richmond
? One win, one top five, four top 10s
? Average finish of 10.2
? Average Running Position of 11.8, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.7, ninth-best
? 511 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 116.616 mph, 10th-fastest
? 2,676 Laps in the Top 15 (74.1%), 10th-most
? 295 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), third-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? NASCAR Sprint Cup Series points leader
? One win, five top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 12.1
? Average Running Position of 6.8, second-best
? Driver Rating of 114.0, third-best
? 353 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 117.093 mph, third-fastest
? Series-high 4,130 Laps in the Top 15 (93.7%)
? Series-high 355 Quality Passes

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite/Vortex Dodge)
? Eighth in points
? One win, three top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 17.8
? Average Running Position of 13.5, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 95.4, sixth-best
? 262 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? 495 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 116.817 mph, fifth-fastest
? 2,810 Laps in the Top 15 (63.7%), ninth-most
? 293 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? Sixth in points
? One win, nine top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 14.4
? Average Running Position of 15.1, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 86.8, 13th-best
? 495 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? 2,884 Laps in the Top 15 (65.4%), seventh-most
? 270 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 CARQUEST Auto Parts Chevrolet)
? 15th in points
? One win, 17 top fives, 27 top 10s; four poles
? Average finish of 12.0
? Average Running Position of 13.1, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.9, seventh-best
? 144 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 116.710 mph, sixth-fastest
? 2,864 Laps in the Top 15 (64.9%), eighth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Ford)
? 18th in points
? One win, two top fives, five top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 18.2
? Average Running Position of 16.4, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 88.4, 11th-best
? 234 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? 548 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 116.606 mph, 11th-fastest
? 2,539 Laps in the Top 15 (57.6%), 11th-most
? 251 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
? 19th in points
? Three wins, eight top fives, 10 top 10s
? Average finish of 13.2
? Average Running Position of 14.3, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 88.8, 10th-best
? 252 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 591 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 116.621 mph, ninth-fastest
? 2,358 Laps in the Top 15 (53.5%), 12th-most
? 243 Quality Passes, 11th-most

RICHMOND HIGHLIGHTS
? Lee Petty won the first race in April 1953.
? Jeff Gordon (five) leads active drivers with five poles.
? Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson (three) lead active race winners.
? Petty Enterprises has won 15 races at Richmond, more than any other team.
? 63 of 108 races have been won from the top five starting positions, including 22 from the pole.
? 13 of the past 15 races have been won from the top 10.
? Two active drivers have an average finish inside the top 10: Kyle Busch (5.5) and Denny Hamlin (8.8).
? Four of the last five races have had a margin of victory less than one second.

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