RacingNation.com
Home / Cup Corner / Richmond Fantasy Forecast

Richmond Fantasy Forecast

RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

Chevy Rock and Roll 4000
Saturday, September 12, 2009 in Richmond, VA

It’s back to old-fashioned Saturday night at the races this weekend as Sprint Cup drivers head to Richmond Virginia for the running of the “Chevy Rock and Roll 400”. This ? mile oval is sized like a short track but races like a superspeedway. 400 laps are on tap at this low-banked (14 degrees), D-shaped oval.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers’ success at this track and other similar tracks, such as Martinsville, Bristol, New Hampshire and Phoenix, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing. I also factor in key driver stats from their most recent runs at Richmond.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 11 Denny Hamlin
2) 14 Tony Stewart
3) 18 Kyle Busch
4) 5 Mark Martin
5) 48 Jimmie Johnson
6) 24 Jeff Gordon
7) 29 Kevin Harvick
8) 39 Ryan Newman
9) 33 Clint Bowyer
10) 2 Kurt Busch
11) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
12) 16 Greg Biffle
13) 00 David Reutimann
14) 9 Kasey Kahne
15) 31 Jeff Burton
16) 99 Carl Edwards
17) 07 Casey Mears
18) 47 Marcos Ambrose
19) 83 Brian Vickers
20) 17 Matt Kenseth
21) 20 Joey Logano
22) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
23) 1 Martin Truex Jr.
24) 77 Sam Hornish Jr.
25) 09 Brad Keselowski

Denny Hamlin
Race No. 26, the final race of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series “regular season,” is an anticipated event for every single driver in the series. But it’s something else entirely for Denny Hamlin.

Hamlin grew up in the track’s shadows, and as such, longs for a victory at his local short track. Literally, a Sprint Cup win at Richmond is at the top of his wish list. He has come close a number of times, but has yet to break through to Victory Lane. Oddly, his best Richmond performance ended with his worst Richmond finish. In last season’s spring race, Hamlin had the dominant car – by far. He led an astounding 381 of 400 laps. But a late-race tire problem killed his day, ended the dream and resulted in a 24th-place finish.

The numbers speak for themselves. In all seven of his Richmond races, Hamlin has led at least four laps. He owns series-best stats in Driver Rating (116.9), Average Running Position (5.1) and average Green Flag Speed (117.741 mph). He also has tremendous numbers in Fastest Laps Run (244, third-most) and Laps in the Top 15 (2,754/98.0%).

The trend of hard luck finishes continued into this season for Hamlin at Richmond. Statistically, the last Richmond race was Hamlin’s second-best. But in the end, he suffered his third-worst finish (14th). The problem this time: a bad pit stop. His crew had a problem with the lug nuts, causing Hamlin to lose a number of positions on pit road.

Hamlin’s prior success at Richmond combined with his current momentum make Hamlin a sure favorite this weekend. Coming into this weekend’s race, Hamlin has scored five consecutive top-10 finishes (and seven of the last eight races were top-10 runs).

Kyle Busch
Almost all the numbers point to Kyle Busch, currently 14th in the points, earning a berth in the 2009 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup after Saturday night’s race at Richmond. With an average finish of 6.1 and an average Driver Rating of 112.1, this is Busch’s best track. Plus, Busch is a short-track whiz. In the four short-track races this season, Busch has racked up three wins, a Driver Rating of 120.9, an Average Running Position of 9.3 and 499 laps led.

Matt Kenseth
There’s one key element that can’t be measured by statistics: Kenseth’s perseverance. Kenseth is one of only two drivers to make all five Chases (Jimmie Johnson is the other). Undoubtedly, he’ll do whatever it takes to make it six-for-six.

Kenseth rolls cautiously into Richmond in 12th place, the second-straight week for the 2003 series champion to hold that position. He’s trying to extend a remarkable streak that he co-holds with Jimmie Johnson; they are the only two drivers who have qualified for the Chase every year. Johnson already has a sixth-straight Chase berth secured, so that leaves it to Kenseth to keep pace.

It won’t be easy. Kenseth has one Richmond victory, that coming in September 2002. Saturday night he’ll be fighting off three guys close behind in the points. Brian Vickers is only 20 points behind, while Kyle Busch is only 37 back. The last driver still in mathematical contention is 15th-place Reutimann, an obvious long shot, as he is 132 points behind Kenseth. Above Kenseth in the standings, there is also nervousness: 10th-place Mark Martin is only 69 points ahead of 13th-place Vickers while 11th-place Greg Biffle is 68 ahead of Vickers.

Kenseth comes off a 12th-place finish this past Sunday night at Atlanta Motor Speedway that allowed him to retain his precarious position. “I just want to run good and be back up front where we belong,” Kenseth said. “We have a championship-caliber team as far as personnel we’re capable of much better than this.”

Indeed, Kenseth showed that the first two weeks of the NASCAR Sprint Cup season when he captured the Daytona 500 then followed with a victory at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, Calif. He hasn’t won since. “We’ve got to beat all the guys we’re around to get in the Chase. There are about five or six guys that are really close in the points and whoever outperforms the rest of them will make it in, so we’ve just got to go out and run as hard as we can and hope our results will be good enough. Through certain parts of the year we probably haven’t capitalized on all the races we could have and got all the points we could have, so we’re in this spot and we just have to race as hard as we can and do the things we know how to do and hope that’s good enough.”

SELECTED RICHMOND DRIVER STATS
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? Three top fives, four top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 9.6
? Series-best Average Running Position of 5.1
? Series-best Driver Rating of 116.9
? 244 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 117.741 mph
? 2,754 Laps in the Top 15 (98.0%), fifth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? One win, seven top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 6.1
? Average Running Position of 7.7, third-best
? Driver Rating of 112.1, third-best
? 255 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 117.675 mph, second-fastest
? 3,137 Laps in the Top 15 (86.9%), second-most
? 241 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 Kellogg’s/CARQUEST Chevrolet)
? One win, 16 top fives, 26 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 11.9
? Average Running Position of 13.6, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.6, seventh-best
? 98 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 117.236 mph, eighth-fastest
? 2,320 Laps in the Top 15 (64.3%), eighth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
? One win, five top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 11.7
? Average Running Position of 10.3, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 94.6, sixth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 117.247 mph, seventh-fastest
? 3,082 Laps in the Top 15 (85.4%), third-most
? 215 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? One win, two top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 18.7
? Average Running Position of 14.2, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 94.8, fifth-best
? 237 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? 408 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 117.379 mph, fifth-fastest
? 244 Quality Passes, third-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
? Three wins, eight top fives, 10 top 10s
? Average finish of 11.9
? Average Running Position of 12.2, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 92.9, eighth-best
? 208 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? 486 Green Flag Passes, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 117.269 mph, sixth-fastest

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? Two top fives, five top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 15.8
? Average Running Position of 15.5, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 87.6, 13th-best
? 89 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 117.188 mph, 10th-fastest
? 2,243 Laps in the Top 15 (62.1%), 10th-most
? 158 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), 11th-most

Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
? One top 10; two poles
? Average finish of 27.8
? Average Running Position of 25.1, 35th-best
? Driver Rating of 57.7, 36th-best
? 19 Fastest Laps Run, 25th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 116.414 mph, 39th-fastest
? 592 Laps in the Top 15 (18.4%), 26th-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
? One win, three top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 16.7
? Average Running Position of 19.3, 21st-best
? Driver Rating of 80.8, 17th-best
? 68 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
? 1,681 Laps in the Top 15 (46.6%), 15th-most

RICHMOND HIGHLIGHTS
? Originally known as the Atlantic Rural Exposition Fairgrounds, Richmond International Raceway held its first race in 1946 as a .5-mile dirt track.
? The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held on April 19, 1953, which was won by Lee Petty.
? Jeff Gordon (five) leads active drivers with five poles.
? 46 different drivers have posted victories at Richmond, led by Richard Petty (13).
? Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson (three) lead the active race winners.
? Petty Enterprises has won 15 races at Richmond, more than any other car owner.
? 60 of 106 races at Richmond have been won from the top five starting positions, including 21 from the pole.
? The last driver to win from the pole was Jimmie Johnson in September 2007.
? 11 of the past 13 races have been won from the top 10. Though, two of the last three race winners have started from outside the top 10, including this May’s winner, Kyle Busch.
? The furthest back in the field that a race winner started was 31st, by Clint Bowyer in 2008’s spring race.
? Kyle Petty became the first third-generation NASCAR race winner when he won his first race, at Richmond, on February 23, 1986. Richard Petty posted his first Richmond victory in 1961 and Lee won the very first Richmond race in 1953.
? Two active drivers have a finish inside the top 10: Kyle Busch (6.1) and Denny Hamlin (9.6).

Share Button