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Richmond Fantasy Forecast

RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY
Crown Royal Presents The Russ Friedman 400
Saturday, May 2, 2009 in Richmond, VA

It’s back to old-fashioned Saturday night at the races this weekend as Sprint Cup drivers head to Richmond Virginia for the running of the “Crown Royal Presents the Russ Friedman 400”. This ? mile oval is sized like a short track but races like a superspeedway. 400 laps are on tap at this low-banked (14 degrees), D-shaped oval.

Who is Russ Friedman you might ask? Mr. Friedman is a two-time Purple Heart recipient and grand-prize winner of the third annual Crown Royal Presents the “Your Name Here” 400 contest. He was chosen from a group of finalists based on a submission that detailed his experience serving in Iraq. “Winning the Crown Royal ‘Your Name Here’ 400 contest is absolutely amazing and truly an overwhelming experience,” Friedman said. “Not only do I get to live out one of my dreams, but I get a chance to help recognize all the American soldiers who defend our freedoms on a day-to-day basis and definitely deserve a toast with Crown Royal.”

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Saturday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers’ success at this track and other similar tracks, such as Martinsville, Bristol, New Hampshire and Phoenix, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing. I also factor in drivers’ average running position, laps led, and practice & qualifying results from their most recent runs at Richmond.

TOP TWENTY

1) 48 Jimmie Johnson

2) 11 Denny Hamlin

3) 5 Mark Martin

4) 14 Tony Stewart

5) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.

6) 24 Jeff Gordon

7) 18 Kyle Busch

8) 31 Jeff Burton

9) 29 Kevin Harvick

10) 16 Greg Biffle

11) 2 Kurt Busch

12) 39 Ryan Newman

13) 99 Carl Edwards

14) 33 Clint Bowyer

15) 9 Kasey Kahne

16) 47 Marcos Ambrose

17) 00 David Reutimann

18) 07 Casey Mears

19) 1 Martin Truex Jr.

20) 17 Matt Kenseth

SELECTED RICHMOND DRIVER STATS
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? Three top fives, four top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 8.8
? Series-best Average Running Position of 5.4
? Driver Rating of 115.3, second-best
? 201 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 117.957 mph, second-fastest
? 2,354 Laps in the Top 15 (97.7%), fifth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Old Spice/Office Depot Chevrolet)
? Three wins, eight top fives, 14 top 10s
? Average finish of 10.5
? Average Running Position of 8.9, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 104.9, fourth-best
? 165 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 117.839 mph, fourth-fastest
? 2,709 Laps in the Top 15 (84.4%), third-most
? 202 Quality Passes, second-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
? Three wins, eight top fives, 10 top 10s
? Average finish of 11.1
? Average Running Position of 10.9, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 97.0, fifth-best
? 203 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? 429 Green Flag Passes, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 117.591 mph, fifth-fastest
? 2,161 Laps in the Top 15 (67.3%), sixth-most
? 202 Quality Passes, second-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont/Pepsi Throwback Challenger Chevrolet)
? Two wins, 12 top fives, 20 top 10s; five poles
? Average finish of 15.1
? Average Running Position of 16.2, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 89.4, 13th-best
? 98 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 1,943 Laps in the Top 15 (60.5%), 10th-most
? 167 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Pedigree Toyota)
? Six top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 6.8
? Average Running Position of 8.1, third-best
? Driver Rating of 109.9, third-best
? 225 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 117.881 mph, third-fastest
? 2,737 Laps in the Top 15 (85.3%), second-most
? 194 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? One win, four top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 11.5
? Average Running Position of 5.8, second-best
? Series-best Driver Rating of 118.8
? Series-high 319 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 117.963 mph
? Series-high 3,069 Laps in the Top 15 (95.6%)
? Series-high 246 Quality Passes

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? One win, two top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 19.1
? Average Running Position of 15.3, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 93.1, eighth-best
? 190 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? 342 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 117.553 mph, sixth-fastest
? 1,883 Laps in the Top 15 (58.7%), 12th-most
? 182 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet)
? One win, one top five, three top 10s
? Average finish of 9.3
? Average Running Position of 12.2, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 93.3, seventh-best
? 329 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 117.436 mph, ninth-fastest
? 1,734 Laps in the Top 15 (72.0%), 13th-most
? 179 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge)
? One win, two top fives, five top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 17.5
? Average Running Position of 15.4, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 94.2, sixth-best
? 225 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 373 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 117.537 mph, seventh-fastest
? 1,916 Laps in the Top 15 (59.7%), 11th-most
? 158 Quality Passes, 10th-most

RICHMOND HIGHLIGHTS
? Richmond International Raceway held its first race in 1946 as a half-mile dirt track.
? The first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race was held on April 19, 1953, won by Lee Petty.
? The track surface was changed from dirt to asphalt between spring and fall races in 1968.
? There have been 46 different pole winners, led by Bobby Allison and Richard Petty (eight).
? Jeff Gordon (five) leads active drivers with five poles.
? 45 different drivers have posted victories at Richmond, led by Richard Petty (13).
? Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson (three) lead the active race winners.
? Petty Enterprises has won 15 races at Richmond, more than any other car owner.
? 60 of 105 races at Richmond have been won from the top five starting positions, including 21 from the pole.
? 11 of the past 12 races have been won from the top 10.

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