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Pocono Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Good Sam RV Insurance 500
THE PLACE: Pocono Raceway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, August 7, 2011 – 1:19pm/et, 12:19/ct

NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers head to Pocono Raceway in Pennsylvania this weekend for the running of the Good Sam RV Insurance 500. This 2.5 mile triangular superspeedway has three long straightaways and three unique turns. Turn one has 14 degrees of banking, turn two is banked 8 degrees and is known as the “tunnel turn”, and turn three is a wide, sweeping turn with 6 degrees of banking.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 14 Tony Stewart
2) 11 Denny Hamlin
3) 48 Jimmie Johnson
4) 24 Jeff Gordon
5) 99 Carl Edwards
6) 39 Ryan Newman
7) 29 Kevin Harvick
8) 22 Kurt Busch
9) 4 Kasey Kahne
10) 17 Matt Kenseth
11) 18 Kyle Busch
12) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
13) 33 Clint Bowyer
14) 16 Greg Biffle
15) 31 Jeff Burton
16) 5 Mark Martin
17) 6 David Ragan
18) 00 David Reutimann
19) 20 Joey Logano
20) 2 Brad Keselowski
21) 83 Brian Vickers
22) 1 Jamie McMurray
23) 27 Paul Menard
24) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
25) 56 Martin Truex Jr.

POCONO DRIVER STATS
Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)
• Two wins, nine top fives, 18 top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 11.9
• Average Running Position of 11.4, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 100.7, fifth-best
• 78 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 1,028 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.902 mph, fifth-fastest
• 1,915 Laps in the Top 15 (76.2%), third-most
• 562 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Office Toyota)
• Four wins, seven top fives, eight top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 9.2
• Series-best Average Running Position of 8.6
• Series-best Driver Rating of 118.6
• Series-high 390 Fastest Laps Run
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 159.626 mph
• 1,771 Laps in the Top 15 (83.9%), seventh-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• Two wins, seven top fives, 13 top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 9.3
• Average Running Position of 10.0, third-best
• Driver Rating of 106.4, second-best
• 188 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 159.192 mph, second-fastest
• Series-high 2,000 Laps in the Top 15 (79.6%)
• 566 Quality Passes, second-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet)
• Five wins, 17 top fives, 26 top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 10.3
• Average Running Position of 9.8, second-best
• Driver Rating of 101.3, fourth-best
• 87 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 984 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.983 mph, fourth-fastest
• 1,931 Laps in the Top 15 (76.8%), second-most
• 563 Quality Passes, third-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 SCOTTS ORTHO Ford)
• Two wins, five top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 14.3
• Driver Rating of 97.7, sixth-best
• 155 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.845 mph, seventh-fastest

Ryan Newman (No. 39 Tornados Chevrolet)
• One win, six top fives, eight top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 13.1
• Average Running Position of 11.5, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 94.2, seventh-best
• 1,007 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.603 mph, 13th-fastest
• 1,852 Laps in the Top 15 (73.7%), fourth-most
• Series-high 578 Quality Passes

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)
• Five top fives, eight top 10s
• Average finish of 14.0
• Average Running Position of 13.8, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 92.0, ninth-best
• Series-high 1,121 Green Flag Passes
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.636 mph, 10th-fastest
• 1,588 Laps in the Top 15 (63.2%), 10th-most
• 560 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• Two wins, eight top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 16.1
• Average Running Position of 11.1, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 104.1, third-best
• 271 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 159.159 mph, third-fastest
• 1,838 Laps in the Top 15 (73.1%), fifth-most
• 481 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 4 Red Bull Toyota)
• One win, three top fives, five top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 16.3
• Average Running Position of 13.9, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 91.1, 10th-best
• 157 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• 1,084 Green Flag Passes, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.759 mph, eighth-fastest
• 1,605 Laps in the Top 15 (63.8%), ninth-most
• 541 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
• Three top fives, nine top 10s
• Average finish of 14.1
• Average Running Position of 13.6, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 88.6, 13th-best
• 954 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.657 mph, ninth-fastest
• 1,558 Laps in the Top 15 (62.0%), 12th-most
• 538 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
• Seven top fives, 17 top 10s
• Average finish of 16.0
• Average Running Position of 14.1, 12th-best
• Driver Rating of 89.5, 12th-best
• 65 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
• 1,045 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
• 1,578 Laps in the Top 15 (62.8%), 11th-most
• 492 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), eighth-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
• 19 top fives, 33 top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 11.2
• Average Running Position of 11.9, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 93.8, eighth-best
• 78 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.879 mph, sixth-fastest
• 1,797 Laps in the Top 15 (71.5%), sixth-most
• 479 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
• Four top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 14.9
• Average Running Position of 13.0, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 91.0, 11th-best
• 72 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most

POCONO RACEWAY HIGHLIGHTS
• Richard Petty won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Pocono.
• 29 different drivers have won races at Pocono, led by Bill Elliott and Jeff Gordon, each with five victories.
• There have been six season sweeps at Pocono, the last by Denny Hamlin in 2006.
• 47 of 67 Pocono races have been won from a top-10 start.
• 13 of 67 races have been won from the pole, Bill Elliott (1985, 2002) and Denny Hamlin (2006 sweep) are the only drivers to have done it twice. Tony Stewart is the most recent driver to win from the pole in 2009.
• Rick Hendrick leads all car owners with 12 Pocono victories.
• Mark Martin leads all drivers in top fives (19) and top 10s (33), but has yet to win at Pocono. His best finish was second, six times (most recently in August 2004).
• Denny Hamlin (9.1) and Jimmie Johnson (9.2) are the only active drivers to average a top-10 finish.

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