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Pocono Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: 5-Hour ENERGY 500
THE PLACE: Pocono Raceway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, June 12, 2011 – 1:15pm/et, 12:15/ct

NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers head to the Pocono’s in Pennsylvania this weekend to navigate the 2.5 mile superspeedway know as Pocono Raceway. This track has three long straightaways and three unique turns, each patterned after different tracks. Turn one has 14 degrees of banking and was inspired by the now defunct Trenton Speedway at the former state fairgrounds in Trenton, New Jersey. Turn two, also known as the “Tunnel Turn”, has 8 degrees of banking and resembles the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Turn three is a sweeping 6-degree turn comparable to the Milwaukee Mile in Wisconsin. As a cross between a road course and an oval, it’s often referred to as a roval.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 11 Denny Hamlin
2) 48 Jimmie Johnson
3) 99 Carl Edwards
4) 14 Tony Stewart
5) 29 Kevin Harvick
6) 24 Jeff Gordon
7) 33 Clint Bowyer
8) 16 Greg Biffle
9) 5 Mark Martin
10) 4 Kasey Kahne
11) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
12) 17 Matt Kenseth
13) 31 Jeff Burton
14) 22 Kurt Busch
15) 18 Kyle Busch
16) 39 Ryan Newman
17) 83 Brian Vickers
18) 2 Brad Keselowski
19) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
20) 1 Jamie McMurray
21) 00 David Reutimann
22) 9 Marcos Ambrose
23) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
24) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
25) 6 David Ragan

POCONO DRIVER STATS
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Ground Toyota)
• Four wins, seven top fives, eight top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 8.2
• Series-best Average Running Position of 8.9
• Series-best Driver Rating of 119.2
• Series-high 356 Fastest Laps Run
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 159.592 mph
• 1,604 Laps in the Top 15 (84.0%), seventh-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• Two wins, six top fives, 12 top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 9.6
• Average Running Position of 10.4, third-best
• Driver Rating of 105.9, second-best
• 160 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 159.075 mph, second-fastest
• 1,801 Laps in the Top 15 (77.8%), second-most
• 497 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 KELLOGG Ford)
• Two wins, five top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 12.4
• Average Running Position of 14.7, 13th-best
• Driver Rating of 98.6, sixth-best
• 143 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.646 mph, eighth-fastest
• 1,444 Laps in the Top 15 (62.4%), 10th-most
• 448 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)
• Two wins, nine top fives, 18 top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 11.5
• Average Running Position of 11.0, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 102.4, third-best
• 78 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 899 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.868 mph, fifth-fastest
• Series-high 1,812 Laps in the Top 15 (78.3%)
• Series-high 524 Quality Passes

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)
• Four top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 14.5
• Average Running Position of 14.1, 12th-best
• Driver Rating of 91.4, 10th-best
• 965 Green Flag Passes, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.544 mph, 12th-fastest
• 1,416 Laps in the Top 15 (61.2%), 13th-most
• 491 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Four wins, 16 top fives, 25 top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 10.5
• Average Running Position of 10.3, second-best
• Driver Rating of 98.8, fifth-best
• 64 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• 927 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.845 mph, sixth-fastest
• 1,732 Laps in the Top 15 (74.8%), fourth-most
• 520 Quality Passes, third-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 Farmers Insurance/GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
• 19 top fives, 33 top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 11.1
• Average Running Position of 10.9, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 96.4, seventh-best
• 77 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.876 mph, fourth-fastest
• 1,789 Laps in the Top 15 (77.3%), third-most
• 470 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 4 Red Bull Toyota)
• One win, three top fives, five top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 16.6
• Average Running Position of 14.1, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 91.1, 11th-best
• 155 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• 974 Green Flag Passes, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.699 mph, seventh-fastest
• 1,441 Laps in the Top 15 (62.3%), 11th-most
• 496 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Affliction Clothing/Live Fast Ford Fusion Ford)
• Three top fives, eight top 10s
• Average finish of 14.4
• Average Running Position of 13.6, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 88.3, 13th-best
• 844 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.583 mph, ninth-fastest
• 1,425 Laps in the Top 15 (61.6%), 12th-most
• 489 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
• Seven top fives, 17 top 10s
• Average finish of 15.9
• Average Running Position of 13.6, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 91.1, 12th-best
• 61 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
• 898 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.562 mph, 10th-fastest
• 1,508 Laps in the Top 15 (65.2%), ninth-most
• 458 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), ninth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• Two wins, seven top fives, 10 top 10s
• Average finish of 16.8
• Average Running Position of 11.8, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 101.8, fourth-best
• 242 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 159.033 mph, third-fastest
• 1,638 Laps in the Top 15 (70.8%), sixth-most
• 441 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 Haas Automation Chevrolet)
• One win, six top fives, seven top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 13.3
• Average Running Position of 11.7, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 93.9, ninth-best
• 919 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
• 1,663 Laps in the Top 15 (71.9%), fifth-most
• 522 Quality Passes, second-most

Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
• Four top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 14.3
• Average Running Position of 12.1, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 93.9, eighth-best
• 72 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.553 mph, 11th-fastest
• 416 Quality Passes, 13th-most

POCONO RACEWAY HIGHLIGHTS
• Richard Petty won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Pocono IN 1974.
• 29 different drivers have won races at Pocono, led by Bill Elliott, with five victories; 20 drivers have won more than once there.
• There have been six season sweeps at Pocono, the last by Denny Hamlin in 2006.
• 47 of 66 Pocono races have been won from a top-10 start.
• Rick Hendrick leads all car owners with 11 Pocono victories.
• Mark Martin leads all drivers in top fives (19) and top 10s (33), but has yet to win at Pocono. His best finish was second, six times (most recently in August 2004).
• Denny Hamlin (8.2) and Jimmie Johnson (9.5) are the only active drivers to average a top-10 finish.

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