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Pocono Fantasy Forecast

POCONO RACEWAY
Gillette Fusion ProGlide 500
Sunday, June 6, 2010 in Long Pond, PA

NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers head to Pocono Raceway in Pennsylvania this weekend for the running of the Pocono 500. This 2.5 mile triangular superspeedway sports three long straightaways and three unique turns, each patterned after different tracks. Turn one has 14 degrees of banking and was inspired by the now defunct Trenton Speedway at the former state fairgrounds in Trenton, New Jersey. Turn two, also known as the “Tunnel Turn”, has 8 degrees of banking and resembles the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Turn three is a sweeping 6-degree turn comparable to the Milwaukee Mile in Wisconsin. As a cross between a road course and an oval, it’s often referred to as a roval.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings utilize an exclusive formula I’ve developed over years of analyzing races. It factors in drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 24 Jeff Gordon
2) 48 Jimmie Johnson
3) 99 Carl Edwards
4) 5 Mark Martin
5) 11 Denny Hamlin
6) 39 Ryan Newman
7) 17 Matt Kenseth
8) 18 Kyle Busch
9) 29 Kevin Harvick
10) 14 Tony Stewart
11) 9 Kasey Kahne
12) 2 Kurt Busch
13) 33 Clint Bowyer
14) 31 Jeff Burton
15) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
16) 00 David Reutimann
17) 16 Greg Biffle
18) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
19) 1 Jamie McMurray
20) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
21) 12 Brad Keselowski
22) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
23) 20 Joey Logano
24) 77 Sam Hornish Jr.
25) 47 Marcos Ambrose

POCONO DRIVER STATS
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Four wins, 16 top fives, 24 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 10.0
? Average Running Position of 11.1, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 97.3, seventh-best
? 25 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
? 831 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.742 mph, sixth-fastest
? 1,366 Laps in the Top 15 (71.5%), seventh-most
? 445 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Two wins, five top fives, 10 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 9.8
? Average Running Position of 11.0, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 103.1, third-best
? 100 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.965 mph, third-fastest
? 1,437 Laps in the Top 15 (75.2%), fourth-most
? 393 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Kellogg’s Ford)
? Two wins, four top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 13.4
? Average Running Position of 14.9, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 100.3, fifth-best
? 141 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.653 mph, seventh-fastest
? 1,197 Laps in the Top 15 (62.7%), 10th-most
? 347 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 Hendrickcars.com/GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
? 19 top fives, 32 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 10.8
? Average Running Position of 10.7, third-best
? Driver Rating of 98.8, sixth-best
? 75 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.925 mph, fourth-fastest
? Series-high 1,541 Laps in the Top 15 (80.7%)
? 406 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Freight Toyota)
? Three wins, five top fives, six top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 9.5
? Series-best Average Running Position of 10.2
? Series-best Driver Rating of 115.9
? Series-high 280 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 159.530 mph
? 1,202 Laps in the Top 15 (79.8%), ninth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 Haas Automation Chevrolet)
? One win, six top fives, seven top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 13.4
? Average Running Position of 11.0, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 96.3, eighth-best
? 789 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.565 mph, 10th-fastest
? 1,443 Laps in the Top 15 (75.5%), third-most
? 455 Quality Passes, second-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Black Ford)
? Three top fives, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 14.1
? Average Running Position of 12.6, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 91.0, 11th-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.619 mph, ninth-fastest
? 1,330 Laps in the Top 15 (69.6%), eighth-most
? Series-high 460 Quality Passes

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? Two top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 15.7
? Average Running Position of 15.4, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 87.8, 12th-best
? 842 Green Flag Passes, third-most
? 380 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Two wins, seven top fives, 16 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 12.3
? Average Running Position of 11.5, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 101.7, fourth-best
? 65 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 809 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.824 mph, fifth-fastest
? 1,447 Laps in the Top 15 (75.8%), second-most
? 452 Quality Passes, third-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Ford)
? One win, three top fives, five top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 15.5
? Average Running Position of 14.5, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 92.0, 10th-best
? 139 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? 815 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.650 mph, eighth-fastest
? 1,125 Laps in the Top 15 (58.9%), 13th-most
? 395 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? Two wins, seven top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 16.5
? Average Running Position of 10.5, second-best
? Driver Rating of 105.9, second-best
? 238 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 159.118 mph, second-fastest
? 1,435 Laps in the Top 15 (75.1%), fifth-most
? 381 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? Seven top fives, 15 top 10s
? Average finish of 16.4
? Average Running Position of 14.9, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 87.2, 13th-best
? 33 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? 775 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
? 1,129 Laps in the Top 15 (59.1%), 12th-most
? 359 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), 12th-most

POCONO RACEWAY HIGHLIGHTS
? Opened in 1968 as a three-quarter-mile track, Pocono Raceway held the first race on the 2.5-mile track in 1971.
? The first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race was in 1974, won by Richard Petty.
? There have been six season sweeps at Pocono, the last by Denny Hamlin in 2006.
? 46 of 64 Pocono races have been won from a top-10 start.
? Rick Hendrick leads all car owners with 11 Pocono victories.
? Mark Martin leads all drivers in top fives (19) and top 10s (32), but has yet to win at Pocono. His best finish was second, six times (most recently in August 2004).
? Denny Hamlin (9.5) and Jimmie Johnson (9.8) are the only active drivers to average a top-10 finish.

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