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Pocono Fantasy Forecast

POCONO RACEWAY
Sunoco Red Cross Pennsylvania 500
Sunday, August 2, 2009 in Long Pond, PA

NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers head to Pocono Raceway in Pennsylvania this weekend for the running of the Pennsylvania 500. This 2.5 mile triangular superspeedway sports three long straightaways and three unique turns, each patterned after different tracks. Turn one has 14 degrees of banking and was inspired by the now defunct Trenton Speedway at the former state fairgrounds in Trenton, New Jersey. Turn two, also known as the ?Tunnel Turn?, has 8 degrees of banking and resembles the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Turn three is a sweeping 6-degree turn comparable to the Milwaukee Mile in Wisconsin. As a cross between a road course and an oval, it?s often referred to as a roval.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers? success at this track and other relatively flat tracks such as Indy, Phoenix and New Hampshire, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing. I also factor in key driver stats from their most recent runs at Pocono.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 14 Tony Stewart
2) 48 Jimmie Johnson
3) 11 Denny Hamlin
4) 5 Mark Martin
5) 2 Kurt Busch
6) 24 Jeff Gordon
7) 99 Carl Edwards
8) 39 Ryan Newman
9) 9 Kasey Kahne
10) 17 Matt Kenseth
11) 83 Brian Vickers
12) 16 Greg Biffle
13) 31 Jeff Burton
14) 00 David Reutimann
15) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
16) 47 Marcos Ambrose
17) 20 Joey Logano
18) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
19) 29 Kevin Harvick
20) 1 Martin Truex Jr.
21) 33 Clint Bowyer
22) 18 Kyle Busch
23) 26 Jamie McMurray
24) 07 Casey Mears
25) 77 Sam Hornish Jr.

SELECTED POCONO DRIVER STATS
Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Two wins, seven top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 12.4
? Average Running Position of 10.5, second-best
? Driver Rating of 104.6, third-best
? 61 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 679 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.943 mph, fourth-fastest
? Series-high 1,362 Laps in the Top 15 (79.6%)
? Series-high 405 Quality Passes

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Two wins, five top fives, 10 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 9.6
? Series-best Average Running Position of 10.4
? Driver Rating of 102.5, fourth-best
? 76 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 159.013 mph, third-fastest
? 1,327 Laps in the Top 15 (77.6%), third-most
? 364 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? Two wins, four top fives, five top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 10.7
? Average Running Position of 11.2, sixth-best
? Series-best Driver Rating of 111.3
? 210 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 159.396 mph
? 1,002 Laps in the Top 15 (76.7%), 12th-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 Kellogg’s/CARQUEST Chevrolet)
? 19 top fives, 31 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 10.8
? Average Running Position of 10.9, third-best
? Driver Rating of 98.1, sixth-best
? 72 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.893 mph, fifth-fastest
? 1,350 Laps in the Top 15 (78.9%), second-most
? 342 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? Two wins, seven top fives, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 16.9
? Average Running Position of 11.1, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 105.0, second-best
? Series-high 229 Fastest Laps Run
? Average Green Flag Speed of 159.050 mph, second-fastest
? 1,236 Laps in the Top 15 (72.3%), sixth-most
? 310 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont/National Guard Patriot Academy Chevrolet)
? Four wins, 16 top fives, 23 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 10.1
? Average Running Position of 11.6, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 96.0, eighth-best
? 733 Green Flag Passes, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.633 mph, seventh-fastest
? 1,174 Laps in the Top 15 (68.7%), eighth-most
? 367 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? Two wins, four top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 12.9
? Driver Rating of 100.4, fifth-best
? 135 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.544 mph, eighth-fastest
? 1,016 Laps in the Top 15 (59.4%), 11th-most
? 291 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
? One win, six top fives, seven top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 13.3
? Average Running Position of 10.9, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 96.3, seventh-best
? 22 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
? 671 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 158.533 mph, ninth-fastest
? 1,274 Laps in the Top 15 (74.5%), fourth-most
? 390 Quality Passes, second-most

Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
? Four top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 15.1
? Average Running Position of 12.1, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.5, ninth-best
? 72 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? 1,244 Laps in the Top 15 (72.7%), fifth-most
? 352 Quality Passes, sixth-most

POCONO HIGHLIGHTS
? Opened in 1968 as a .75-mile track, Pocono Raceway held the first race on the 2.5-mile oval in 1971.
? Richard Petty won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Pocono.
? 28 different drivers have won races at Pocono, led by Bill Elliott with five victories; 20 drivers have won more than once there.
? There have been six season sweeps at Pocono, including two of the past five seasons.
? 46 of 63 Pocono races have been won from a top-10 start; 14 by the pole winner, including Tony Stewart, who won this season?s June race ? his first as a driver-owner (qualifying was canceled in June).
? Rick Hendrick leads all car owners with 11 Pocono victories.
? Denny Hamlin won his first two races at Pocono, claiming both victories from the pole. His last two races there, though, resulted in finishes outside the top 20 (23rd in 2008 and 38th in June).
? Mark Martin leads all drivers in top fives (19) and top 10s (31), but has yet to win at Pocono. His best finish was second, six times (most recently in August, 2004).
? Jimmie Johnson has an average finish of 9.6, the only active driver with more than one race there who has an average finish in the top 10. Marcos Ambrose finished sixth in this season?s June race, his only Pocono start.

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