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Phoenix Fantasy Forecast

This Saturday night, Sprint Cup drivers head west to Phoenix International Raceway for the running of the Subway Fresh Fit 500. Phoenix has a unique tri-oval shape with a dogleg curve in the backstretch between turns two and three. Drivers will make 312 laps (500 kilometers) around this relatively flat, 11-degree, 1.0-mile oval.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers? success at this track and the other flat miler in New Hampshire, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing.

TOP TWENTY
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 24 Jeff Gordon
3) 20 Tony Stewart
4) 11 Denny Hamlin
5) 18 Kyle Busch
6) 31 Jeff Burton
7) 29 Kevin Harvick
8) 99 Carl Edwards
9) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
10) 17 Matt Kenseth
11) 07 Clint Bowyer
12) 16 Greg Biffle
13) 8 Mark Martin
14) 1 Martin Truex Jr.
15) 12 Ryan Newman
16) 43 Bobby Labonte
17) 2 Kurt Busch
18) 83 Brian Vickers
19) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
20) 9 Kasey Kahne

With his win at Texas Motor Speedway, Carl Edwards joined Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Bill Elliott as active NASCAR Sprint Cup Series drivers to win three of the first seven races of a season. Johnson did it last year, and went on to win the championship. Gordon has accomplished the feat three times, following it up with championships in two of those seasons ? 1995 and 1997 (he finished second in the final points standings in 1996, the other year he won three of the first seven). Elliott has done it twice ? in 1985 and 1992 ? and finished second in the final standings both times.

In other words, Edwards? performance could lead to the title ? it has happened before. Likely, the key for Edwards will be his performance on tracks less than 1.5 miles in length. Of his 10 career victories, only two have come on tracks less than 1.5 miles in length (Dover and Bristol last year). This Saturday night, Edwards will get a chance to prove his mettle on the smaller one-mile Phoenix International Raceway layout. He has been solid there. Last November, he led 87 laps, but engine problems relegated him to a 42nd-place finish. Prior to that, Edwards finished in the top 10 in four of the previous five Phoenix races.

SELECTED PHOENIX DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe?s Chevrolet)
? One win, four top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 6.6
? Series-best Average Running Position of 5.7
? Series-high Driver Rating of 115.9
? 155 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Series-high 1,758 (93.9%) Laps in the Top 15
? 133 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? One win, eight top fives, 15 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 8.3
? Average Running Position of 8.0, third-best
? Driver Rating of 107.0, third-best
? 60 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? 1,666 (89.0%) Laps in the Top 15, third-most
? 99 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
? One win, six top fives, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 9.4
? Average Running Position of 10.1, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 103.5, fifth-best
? 80 Fastest Laps Run, seventh
? 1,450 (77.5%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-most
? 148 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? Two wins, three top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 13.2
? Average Running Position of 7.0, second-best
? Driver Rating of 110.3, second-best
? 127 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? 1,669 (89.2%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
? 125 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Office Depot Ford)
? Two top fives, four top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 16.0
? Average Running Position of 13.6, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 102.1, seventh-best
? 130 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? 1,373 (73.3%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-most
? 122 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
? One win, five top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 17.0
? Average Running Position of 14.3, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 97.0, eighth-best
? 103 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? 1,329 (71.0%) Laps in the Top 15, eighth-most
? 153 Quality Passes, third-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? Two top fives
? Average finish of 17.4
? Average Running Position of 15.3, 16th-best
? Driver Rating of 102.4, sixth-best
? Series-high 214 Fastest Laps Run
? 1,120 (59.8%) Laps in the Top 15, 11th-most

Martin Truex Jr. (No. 1 Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet)
? One top 10
? Average finish of 15.3
? Average Running Position of 11.5, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.0, ninth-best
? 58 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? 921 (73.8%) Laps in the Top 15, seventh-highest percentage
? 66 Quality Passes (16.5 per race), tied for 13th-best per race figure

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? One win, two top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 13.4
? Average Running Position of 8.4, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 103.7, fourth-best
? 121 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 1,328 (85.1%) Laps in the Top 15, fourth-best percentage
? 114 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), sixth-most

PHOENIX INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY HIGHLIGHTS
? Alan Kulwicki won the inaugural race at Phoenix in 1988.
? There have been 14 different pole winners at Phoenix, led by Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman and Rusty Wallace ? each with three.
? Ryan Newman and Jeff Gordon are the only drivers to win consecutive poles at Phoenix. Newman won three straight (2002-04) while Gordon won the fall of 2006 and spring 2007.
? There have been 19 different race winners at Phoenix.
? Davey Allison (1991 and 1992), Jeff Burton (2000 and 2001), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (2003 and 2004) and Kevin Harvick (both 2006) are the only drivers to score two victories at Phoenix. All posted back-to-back victories.
? Roush Fenway Racing has won five races at Phoenix, more than any other organization.
? The race has been won from the pole just once at Phoenix: Jeff Gordon (spring 2007).
? The race at Phoenix has been won from a top-10 starting position only 11 of 23 times.
? Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon both have posted eight top-five finishes at Phoenix, more than any other driver.

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