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Phoenix Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Subway Fresh Fit 500 (k)
THE PLACE: Phoenix International Raceway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, February 27, 2011 – 3:14 pm eastern, 2:14 central

Sprint Cup drivers head west to Phoenix International Raceway for the early-season running of the Subway Fresh Fit 500(k). Phoenix’s one-mile layout has a unique tri-oval shape with a dogleg curve in the backstretch between turns two and three. The track is flat by NASCAR standards with 11-degrees of banking in the turns, making it similar to the Magic Mile in Loudon, NH and the Milwaukee Mile in Wisconsin.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. We also capture the ever-powerful momentum by factoring in results from the last month of racing. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 99 Carl Edwards
3) 18 Kyle Busch
4) 39 Ryan Newman
5) 11 Denny Hamlin
6) 22 Kurt Busch
7) 33 Clint Bowyer
8) 29 Kevin Harvick
9) 24 Jeff Gordon
10) 5 Mark Martin
11) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
12) 43 A.J. Allmendinger

13) 31 Jeff Burton
14) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
15) 14 Tony Stewart
16) 1 Jamie McMurray
17) 17 Matt Kenseth
18) 20 Joey Logano
19) 16 Greg Biffle
20) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
21) 00 David Reutimann
22) 9 Marcos Ambrose
23) 21 Trevor Bayne
24) 4 Kasey Kahne
25) 2 Brad Keselowski

PHOENIX DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet)
• Four wins, 10 top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 4.9
• Series-best Average Running Position of 5.1
• Series-best Driver Rating of 122.6
• Series-high 415 Fastest Laps Run
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 123.548 mph
• Series-high 3,661 Laps in the Top 15 (96.1%)
• 310 Quality Passes, third-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
• One win, five top fives, nine top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 11.8
• Average Running Position of 12.5, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 101.7, second-best
• 234 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 123.260 mph, second-fastest
• 2,777 Laps in the Top 15 (72.9%), fifth-most
• 276 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
• One win, one top five, seven top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 13.8
• Average Running Position of 11.3, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 96.3, seventh-best
• 137 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 477 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 122.968 mph, 10th-fastest
• 3,246 Laps in the Top 15 (85.2%), second-most
• Series-high 345 Quality Passes

Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
• One win, five top fives, five top 10s; four poles
• Average finish of 20.2
• Average Running Position of 15.0, 13th-best
• Driver Rating of 88.0, 12th-best
• 446 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
• 2,691 Laps in the Top 15 (70.6%), seventh-most
• 324 Quality Passes, second-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Express Toyota)
• Five top fives, six top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 11.6
• Average Running Position of 11.9, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 98.6, sixth-best
• 191 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 123.114 mph, third-fastest
• 2,503 Laps in the Top 15 (71.5%), ninth-most
• 250 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• One win, four top fives, nine top 10s
• Average finish of 13.3
• Average Running Position of 10.4, third-best
• Driver Rating of 99.3, fifth-best
• 232 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 122.957 mph, 11th-fastest
• 2,621 Laps in the Top 15 (74.9%), eighth-most
• 225 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)
• Two wins, three top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 14.4
• Average Running Position of 11.9, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 95.2, 10th-best
• 147 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 445 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 122.990 mph, ninth-fastest
• 2,714 Laps in the Top 15 (71.2%), sixth-most
• 243 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet)
• One win, nine top fives, 17 top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 10.4
• Average Running Position of 10.1, second-best
• Driver Rating of 99.8, fourth-best
• 99 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 123.042 mph, sixth-fastest
• 3,144 Laps in the Top 15 (82.5%), third-most
• 242 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
• Two wins, 12 top fives, 19 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 8.6
• Average Running Position of 11.6, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 100.8, third-best
• 241 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 123.088 mph, fourth-fastest
• 2,341 Laps in the Top 15 (66.9%), 12th-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
• Two wins, six top fives, 12 top 10s
• Average finish of 11.7
• Average Running Position of 14.9, 12th-best
• Driver Rating of 86.3, 13th-best
• Series-high 590 Green Flag Passes
• 2,371 Laps in the Top 15 (62.2%), 11th-most
• 305 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Martin Truex Jr. (No. 56 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota)
• One top five, four top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 15.6
• Average Running Position of 14.3, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 89.0, 11th-best
• 114 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 122.998 mph, eighth-fastest
• 2,163 Laps in the Top 15 (67.9%), 13th-most
• 223 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Mobil 1/Office Depot Chevrolet)
• One win, seven top fives, nine top 10s
• Average finish of 12.0
• Average Running Position of 10.9, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 96.2, ninth-best
• 128 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• 500 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 123.063 mph, fifth-fastest
• 2,836 Laps in the Top 15 (74.4%), fourth-most
• 295 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
• Four top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 14.6
• Average Running Position of 14.3, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 96.2, eighth-best
• 270 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• 436 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 123.036 mph, seventh-fastest
• 2,402 Laps in the Top 15 (63.0%), 10th-most
• 242 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), 10th-most

PHOENIX INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY HIGHLIGHTS
• There have been 18 different pole winners since the first race in 1988, led by Ryan Newman with four.
• Ryan Newman and Jeff Gordon are the only drivers to win consecutive poles. Newman won three straight (2002-04), while Gordon won the fall of 2006 and spring of 2007.
• There have been 21 different race winners, led by Jimmie Johnson, with four.
• The race has been won from the pole four times: Jeff Gordon (spring 2007), Jimmie Johnson (fall 2008), Mark Martin (spring 2009) and Carl Edwards (fall 2010).
• The race has been won from a top-10 starting position in 15 of 29 events.
• Mark Martin has 12 top-five finishes, more than any other driver. Martin (8.6 average finish) is one of two active drivers who averaged a top-10 finish. Jimmie Johnson (4.9).
• Two perfect Driver Ratings of 150.0 have been recorded at Phoenix. Kurt Busch did it with his win in April of 2005, and Kevin Harvick did it in November of 2006.

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