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Phoenix Fantasy Forecast

PHOENIX INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY
Kobalt Tools 500k
Sunday, November 14, 2010 in Avondale, AZ

This weekend, Sprint Cup drivers and crews make the long haul west to the hot and sunny Phoenix International Raceway for the dash in the desert known as the Kobalt Tools 500k. This is the Cup series’ second appearance of 2010 at Phoenix, and the second last race in the 2010 Chase for the Championship. Phoenix has a unique tri-oval shape with a dogleg curve in the backstretch between turns two and three. Drivers will make 312 laps (500 kilometers) around this relatively flat, 11-degree, 1.0-mile oval.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on a statistical formula that includes drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 11 Denny Hamlin
3) 5 Mark Martin
4) 33 Clint Bowyer
5) 20 Joey Logano
6) 18 Kyle Busch
7) 24 Jeff Gordon
8) 29 Kevin Harvick
9) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
10) 99 Carl Edwards
11) 2 Kurt Busch
12) 16 Greg Biffle
13) 39 Ryan Newman
14) 31 Jeff Burton
15) 17 Matt Kenseth
16) 14 Tony Stewart
17) 1 Jamie McMurray
18) 00 David Reutimann
19) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
20) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
21) 47 Marcos Ambrose
22) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
23) 12 Brad Keselowski
24) 83 Kasey Kahne
25) 77 Sam Hornish Jr.

PHOENIX DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Four wins, nine top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 4.9 in 14 races
? Series-best Average Running Position of 4.9
? Series-best Driver Rating of 123.7
? Series-high 406 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 123.580 mph
? Series-high 3,357 Laps in the Top 15 (95.9%)
? 280 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? Five top fives, six top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 11.6 in 10 races
? Average Running Position of 12.8, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 95.2, eighth-best
? 116 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.025 mph, seventh-fastest
? 2,199 Laps in the Top 15 (69.0%), ninth-most
? 226 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), seventh-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet)
? Two top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 14.9 in 10 races
? Average Running Position of 14.6, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 84.7, 15th-best
? 1,929 Laps in the Top 15 (60.5%), 13th-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? One win, one top five, seven top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 13.9 in 11 races
? Average Running Position of 11.9, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 94.8, ninth-best
? 452 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? 2,944 Laps in the Top 15 (84.1%), third-most
? Series-high 324 Quality Passes

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? One win, nine top fives, 17 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 10.4 in 23 races
? Average Running Position of 9.6, second-best
? Driver Rating of 101.1, third-best
? 96 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.045 mph, sixth-fastest
? 2,984 Laps in the Top 15 (85.3%), second-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? Two wins, three top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 15.0 in 15 races
? Average Running Position of 12.0, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 94.6, 10th-best
? 145 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? 394 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? 2,443 Laps in the Top 15 (69.8%), sixth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? Four top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 12.8 in 12 races
? Average Running Position of 13.4, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 98.6, fifth-best
? 194 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 391 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.226 mph, second-fastest
? 2,465 Laps in the Top 15 (70.4%), fifth-most
? 264 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Operation Home Front/Miller Lite Dodge)
? One win, four top fives, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 13.5 in 15 races
? Average Running Position of 10.6, third-best
? Driver Rating of 98.7, fourth-best
? 220 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 122.947 mph, 10th-fastest
? 2,314 Laps in the Top 15 (72.6%), eighth-most
? 198 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 Red Cross Ford)
? Three top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 15.4 in 13 races
? Average Running Position of 14.6, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 96.2, sixth-best
? 268 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 403 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.055 mph, fourth-fastest
? 2,141 Laps in the Top 15 (61.2%), 12th-most
? 214 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? Two wins, six top fives, 12 top 10s
? Average finish of 11.4 in 22 races
? Average Running Position of 14.9, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 86.2, 12th-best
? Series-high 541 Green Flag Passes
? 2,175 Laps in the Top 15 (62.2%), 10th-most
? 286 Quality Passes, third-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Black Ford)
? One win, five top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 18.2 in 16 races
? Average Running Position of 18.3, 19th-best
? Driver Rating of 83.3, 16th-best
? 126 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? 451 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
? 212 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? One win, seven top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 11.7 in 17 races
? Average Running Position of 11.0, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 96.2, seventh-best
? 117 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? 459 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.051 mph, fifth-fastest
? 2,571 Laps in the Top 15 (73.5%), fourth-most
? 270 Quality Passes, fifth-most

PHOENIX INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY HIGHLIGHTS
? There have been 18 different pole winners since Phoenix’s first race in 1988, led by Ryan Newman with four.
? Ryan Newman and Jeff Gordon are the only drivers to win consecutive poles. Newman won three straight (2002-04), while Gordon won the fall of 2006 and spring of 2007.
? There have been 20 different race winners, led by Jimmie Johnson, with four. Johnson has won four of the last six races. Mark Martin (spring 2009) and Ryan Newman (spring 2010) won the other races in that span.
? The race has been won from the pole three times: Jeff Gordon (spring 2007), Jimmie Johnson (fall 2008) and Mark Martin (spring 2009).
? The race has been won from a top-10 starting position in 14 of 28 events.
? Denny Hamlin won his first career pole in November 2005. AJ Allmendinger won his first career pole earlier this season.
? Mark Martin has 12 top-five finishes, more than any other driver. Martin (8.7) and Jimmie Johnson (4.9) are the only active drivers who average a top-10 finish.
? Three of the last four races have ended with a margin of victory under one second.
? Two perfect Driver Ratings of 150.0 have been recorded at Phoenix. Kurt Busch did it with his win in April of 2005, and Kevin Harvick did it in November of 2006.

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