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Phoenix Fantasy Forecast

PHOENIX INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY
Subway Fit Fresh 600k
Saturday, April 10, 2010 in Avondale, AZ

Sprint Cup drivers head west to Phoenix International Raceway for the mid-April running of the Subway Fresh Fit 600. Phoenix’s one-mile layout has a unique tri-oval shape with a dogleg curve in the backstretch between turns two and three. The track is flat by NASCAR standards with 11-degrees of banking in the turns, making it similar to the Magic Mile in Loudon, NH and the Milwaukee Mile in Wisconsin. This race has been lengthened from its traditional 312 laps (500 kilometers) to 375 laps (600 kilometers).

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. My top twenty-five list utilizes an exclusive formula I’ve developed over years of analyzing races. It factors in drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll find themselves moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 2 Kurt Busch
3) 11 Denny Hamlin
4) 5 Mark Martin
5) 16 Greg Biffle
6) 14 Tony Stewart
7) 24 Jeff Gordon
8) 31 Jeff Burton
9) 18 Kyle Busch
10) 99 Carl Edwards
11) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
12) 39 Ryan Newman
13) 33 Clint Bowyer
14) 17 Matt Kenseth
15) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
16) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
17) 29 Kevin Harvick
18) 20 Joey Logano
19) 9 Kasey Kahne
20) 47 Marcos Ambrose
21) 00 David Reutimann
22) 83 Brian Vickers
23) 1 Jamie McMurray
24) 12 Brad Keselowski
25) 77 Sam Hornish Jr.

PHOENIX DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet)
? Four wins, eight top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 5.1
? Series-best Average Running Position of 5.1
? Series-best Driver Rating of 123.0
? Series-high 354 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 123.610 mph
? Series-high 2,987 Laps in the Top 15 (95.7%)
? 251 Quality Passes, third-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? One win, four top fives, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 12.0
? Average Running Position of 8.1, second-best
? Driver Rating of 104.6, second-best
? 219 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.139 mph, sixth-fastest
? 2,311 Laps in the Top 15 (82.3%), fifth-most
? 185 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? Five top fives, six top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 9.6
? Average Running Position of 11.2, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 98.8, sixth-best
? 108 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 359 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.168 mph, fifth-fastest
? 2,196 Laps in the Top 15 (78.2%), sixth-most
? 222 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 CARQUEST/GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
? Two wins, 11 top fives, 17 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 8.8
? Average Running Position of 10.7, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 103.8, third-best
? 228 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.194 mph, fourth-fastest
? 1,989 Laps in the Top 15 (70.8%), 12th-most
? 174 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 U.S. Census Ford)
? Three top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 14.8
? Average Running Position of 13.8, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 99.8, fifth-best
? 268 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 361 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.201 mph, third-fastest
? 2,140 Laps in the Top 15 (68.6%), seventh-most
? 214 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), eighth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? One win, seven top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 11.0
? Average Running Position of 10.9, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 97.8, eighth-best
? 114 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? 413 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.134 mph, seventh-fastest
? 2,346 Laps in the Top 15 (75.2%), fourth-most
? 249 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? One win, eight top fives, 16 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 10.8
? Average Running Position of 9.9, third-best
? Driver Rating of 99.8, fourth-best
? 80 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.061 mph, ninth-fastest
? 2,606 Laps in the Top 15 (83.5%), second-most
? 183 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? Two wins, six top fives, 12 top 10s
? Average finish of 10.8
? Average Running Position of 14.4, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 86.9, 12th-best
? Series-high 497 Green Flag Passes
? 2,010 Laps in the Top 15 (64.4%), 11th-most
? 250 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Snickers Toyota)
? One win, one top five, six top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 14.5
? Average Running Position of 12.5, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 92.2, 10th-best
? 411 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 122.873 mph, 12th-fastest
? 2,594 Laps in the Top 15 (83.1%), third-most
? Series-high 291 Quality Passes

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? Four top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 13.3
? Average Running Position of 13.7, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 98.8, seventh-best
? 191 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.297 mph, second-fastest
? 2,091 Laps in the Top 15 (67.0%), ninth-most
? 224 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Martin Truex Jr. (No. 56 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota)
? One top five, four top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 15.5
? Average Running Position of 14.1, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 89.7, 11th-best
? 85 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.071 mph, eighth-fastest
? 174 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
? Two wins, four top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 19.2
? Driver Rating of 86.7, 13th-best
? 94 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 122.944 mph, 11th-fastest
? 1,803 Laps in the Top 15 (57.8%), 13th-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? Two wins, three top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 15.1
? Average Running Position of 12.1, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 94.6, ninth-best
? 142 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.018 mph, 10th-fastest
? 2,113 Laps in the Top 15 (67.7%), eighth-most
? 177 Quality Passes, 12th-most

PHOENIX INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY HIGHLIGHTS
? Alan Kulwicki won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race at Phoenix on Nov. 6, 1988.
? There have been 27 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Phoenix International Raceway, one per season from 1988-2004 and two each season since.
? There have been 17 different pole winners, led by Ryan Newman with four.
? Ryan Newman and Jeff Gordon are the only drivers to win consecutive poles. Newman won three straight (2002-04), while Gordon won the fall of 2006 and spring of 2007.
? There have been 19 different race winners, led by Jimmie Johnson, with four. Johnson has won four of the last five Phoenix races. Mark Martin (spring 2009) won the other race in that span.
? The race has been won from the pole three times: Jeff Gordon (spring 2007), Jimmie Johnson (fall 2008) and Mark Martin (spring 2009).
? The race has been won from a top-10 starting position in 14 of 27 events.
? Denny Hamlin won his first career pole at Phoenix in November 2005.
? Mark Martin has 11 top-five finishes, more than any other driver. Martin (8.9 average finish) is one of three active drivers who average a top-10 finish. Jimmie Johnson (5.1) and Denny Hamlin (9.6) are the others.
? Five of the last seven races have ended with a margin of victory under one second.
? Two perfect Driver Ratings of 150.0 have been recorded at Phoenix. Kurt Busch did it with his win in April of 2005, and Kevin Harvick did it in November of 2006.

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