RacingNation.com
Home / Cup Corner / New Hampshire Fantasy Forecast

New Hampshire Fantasy Forecast

NEW HAMPSHIRE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Lenox Industrial Tools 301, Sunday June 29, 2008

This Sunday, NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers make their first of two annual visits to “The Magic Mile” in Loudon, New Hampshire for the Lenox Industrial Tools 301. Drivers will make 301 laps around this relatively flat, 1.058-mile track. This track opened in 1990, ran its first Cup series race in 1993, and added a second Cup race in 1997 when North Wilkesboro Speedway was dropped from the schedule. In 2002, the speedway’s corners were modified to progressive banking, going from 4 degrees at the bottom to 12 degrees at the top. Then in 2003, an incident with Dale Jarrett stuck on the main straightaway while the rest of the field raced around him back to the caution flag proved to be the final straw in NASCAR’s decision to implement the “lucky dog” rule.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers’ success at this track and other similar tracks such as Phoenix and Richmond, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing.

TOP TWENTY
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 20 Tony Stewart
3) 18 Kyle Busch
4) 24 Jeff Gordon
5) 11 Denny Hamlin
6) 17 Matt Kenseth
7) 99 Carl Edwards
8) 16 Greg Biffle
9) 12 Ryan Newman
10) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
11) 31 Jeff Burton
12) 1 Martin Truex Jr.
13) 29 Kevin Harvick
14) 07 Clint Bowyer
15) 83 Brian Vickers
16) 9 Kasey Kahne
17) 2 Kurt Busch
18) 6 David Ragan
19) 96 JJ Yeley
20) 43 Bobby Labonte

NHMS this weekend will hold the Lenox Industrial Tools 301, the first event in the Race to the Chase – the 10 races prior to the Chase. In other words, it’s “go” time.

Right now, arguably one driver needs to “go” more than any other: Tony Stewart. And if recent history holds true, he’ll make his move over this important 10-race span. Though inside the Chase cutoff in 11th place, Stewart has had an inconsistent year. He has had five top-five finishes this year, but has also had four finishes outside the top 30 (including a last-place finish at Las Vegas). The good news: Stewart is a notoriously late bloomer. In four of the last five seasons, it took Stewart at least 14 races for his first victory. According to the statistics, it is at the upcoming 10 tracks where Stewart makes up more ground than almost any other driver. His combined career numbers from those 10 tracks include 18 wins, 59 top fives, and 91 top 10s.

SELECTED LOUDON, NH DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Two wins, three top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 10.7
? Average Running Position of 12.6, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 96.7, seventh-best
? 70 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? 1,422 (78.7%) Laps in the Top 15, fourth-most
? 186 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
? Two wins, 10 top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 12.8
? Average Running Position of 9.6, second-best
? Series-best Driver Rating of 117.9
? Series-high 189 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-fastest Average Green Flag Speed of 124.790 mph
? 1,498 (82.9%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
? 192 Quality Passes, second-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? One win, three top fives
? Average finish of 14.2
? Average Running Position of 13.0, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 96.2, eighth-best
? 95 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 124.388 mph, seventh-fastest
? 1,213 (67.1%) Laps in the Top 15, eighth-most
? 148 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Three wins, 12 top fives, 15 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 11.6
? Series-best Average Running Position of 7.1
? Driver Rating of 108.7, second-best
? 162 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 273 Green Flag Passes, tied for 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 124.717 mph, second-fastest
? Series-high 1,600 (88.5%) Laps in the Top 15
? 187 Quality Passes, third-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? One win, two top fives, three top 10s
? Average finish of 6.5
? Average Running Position of 10.3, third-best
? Driver Rating of 102.4, fourth-best
? 986 (81.6%) Laps in the Top 15, third-best percentage
? 151 Quality Passes (average of 37.8 per race), series-best average

Ryan Newman (No. 12 Alltel Dodge)
? Two wins, five top fives, nine top 10s; four poles
? Average finish of 11.1; Finished ninth in September
? Average Running Position of 12.4, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 102.7, third-best
? 92 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 124.484 mph, fourth-fastest
? 1,448 (80.1%) Laps in the Top 15, third-most
? 157 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 Amp Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
? Four top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 17.5
? Average Running Position of 12.7, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 99.5, sixth-best
? 91 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? 307 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 124.666 mph, third-fastest
? 1,328 (73.5%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-most
? Series-high 198 Quality Passes

Jeff Burton (No. 31 AT&T Mobility Chevrolet)
? Four wins, seven top fives, 12 top 10s
? Average finish of 13.2
? Average Running Position of 12.1, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 94.6, ninth-best
? 373 Green Flag Passes, tied for 10th-most
? 1,241 (68.6%) Laps in the Top 15, seventh-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? One win, three top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 12.6
? Average Running Position of 10.6, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 102.0, fifth-best
? 96 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 124.459 mph, fifth-fastest
? 1,298 (71.8%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-best

“MAGIC MILE” HIGHLIGHTS
? Loudon’s first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race was held on July 11, 1993.
? Four drivers have competed in all 26 races: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte and Joe Nemechek.
? Mark Martin won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup pole.
? Rusty Wallace won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race.
? There have been 14 different pole winners, led by Ryan Newman (four).
? 17 different drivers have posted victories led by Jeff Burton (four).
? Jimmie Johnson (2003) and Kurt Busch (2004) are the only drivers that have posted season sweeps. Those are also the only back-to-back winners.
? Roush Fenway Racing and Hendrick Motorsports have each won six races, more than any other organization.
? Chevrolet has won 12 New Hampshire races – including five of the past six.
? 14 of 26 races have been won from the top 10 starting positions, including four from the pole.
? Prior to this weekend’s race, all NASCAR Sprint Cup races at New Hampshire have been scheduled for 300 laps. This Sunday’s race is scheduled for 301 laps.
? Jeff Burton led all 300 laps raced in the 2000 fall race.
? Denny Hamlin has an average finish of 6.5 in four races at New Hampshire – the best of any driver with more than one race there. He has one victory, three top-10s and a worst finish of 15th. Hamlin has led in three of his four races.
? The driver that led the most laps has won the race at New Hampshire in 12 of the 26 races, including three of the last four.
? There have been seven different pole winners in the past eight New Hampshire races (qualifying was canceled once in the eight-race period).
? There have been seven different race winners in the past seven New Hampshire races.

Share Button