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New Hampshire Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Sylvania 300
THE PLACE: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, September 25, 2011 – 2:15pm/et, 1:15pm/ct

This Sunday, NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers make their second of two annual visits to “The Magic Mile” in Loudon, New Hampshire for the Sylvania 300. Drivers will make 300 laps around this relatively flat 1.058-mile track. In 2002, the speedway’s corners were modified to progressive banking, going from 4 degrees at the bottom to 12 degrees at the top.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 24 Jeff Gordon
2) 48 Jimmie Johnson
3) 22 Kurt Busch
4) 14 Tony Stewart
5) 11 Denny Hamlin
6) 39 Ryan Newman
7) 99 Carl Edwards
8) 29 Kevin Harvick
9) 18 Kyle Busch
10) 2 Brad Keselowski
11) 4 Kasey Kahne
12) 33 Clint Bowyer
13) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
14) 31 Jeff Burton
15) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
16) 56 Martin Truex Jr.

17) 16 Greg Biffle
18) 20 Joey Logano
19) 5 Mark Martin
20) 1 Jamie McMurray
21) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
22) 00 David Reutimann
23) 17 Matt Kenseth
24) 83 Brian Vickers
25) 6 David Ragan

LOUDON, NEW HAMPSHIRE DRIVER STATS
1 – Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)
• One win, five top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 14.2 in 21 races
• Average Running Position of 13.6, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 91.1, 10th-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 124.016 mph, 10th-fastest
• 2,324 Laps in the Top 15 (60.1%), ninth-most

2 – Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)
• Two wins, 13 top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 12.0 in 25 races
• Average Running Position of 9.0, second-best
• Series-best Driver Rating of 114.0
• Series-high 381 Fastest Laps Run
• 641 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 124.510 mph, second-fastest
• 3,153 Laps in the Top 15 (81.5%), second-most
• 423 Quality Passes, third-most

3 – Carl Edwards (No. 99 Scotts Winterguard Ford)
• Two top fives, two top 10s
• Average finish of 14.4 in 14 races
• Average Running Position of 14.0, 12th-best
• Driver Rating of 88.4, 11th-best
• 2,165 Laps in the Top 15 (56.0%), 11th-most

4 – Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• Three wins, seven top fives, 11 top 10s
• Average finish of 13.5 in 21 races
• Average Running Position of 12.1, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 95.4, sixth-best
• 144 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 124.168 mph, sixth-fastest
• 2,801 Laps in the Top 15 (72.4%), fifth-most
• 412 Quality Passes, fourth-most

5 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 Diet Mountain Dew/National Guard Chevrolet)
• Six top fives, 10 top 10s
• Average finish of 16.7 in 24 races
• Average Running Position of 12.0, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 97.1, fifth-best
• 196 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• 719 Green Flag Passes, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 124.361 mph, third-fastest
• 2,874 Laps in the Top 15 (74.3%), fourth-most
• 424 Quality Passes, second-most

6 – Ryan Newman (No. 39 Haas Automation Chevrolet)
• Three wins, six top fives, 13 top 10s; five poles
• Average finish of 12.4 in 19 races
• Average Running Position of 13.3, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 94.6, eighth-best
• 136 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 124.017 mph, ninth-fastest
• 2,788 Laps in the Top 15 (72.1%), sixth-most
• 339 Quality Passes, seventh-most

7 – Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
• One top 10; one pole
• Average finish of 21.3 in four races
• Average Running Position of 21.3, 21st-best
• Driver Rating of 68.8, 22nd-best

8 – Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• Three wins, seven top fives, 13 top 10s
• Average finish of 9.6 in 19 races
• Average Running Position of 10.2, third-best
• Driver Rating of 105.8, third-best
• 319 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• 605 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 124.268 mph, fourth-fastest
• 3,140 Laps in the Top 15 (81.2%), third-most
• 411 Quality Passes, fifth-most

9 – Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&Ms Toyota)
• One win, four top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 16.3 in 13 races
• Average Running Position of 16.1, 16th-best
• Driver Rating of 88.2, 13th-best
• 119 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
• 627 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
• 2,193 Laps in the Top 15 (56.7%), 10th-most
• 319 Quality Passes, 10th-most

10 – Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Affliction Clothing Ford)
• Five top fives, 11 top 10s
• Average finish of 14.4 in 23 races
• Average Running Position of 17.9, 19th-best
• Driver Rating of 76.9, 20th-best
• Series-high 741 Green Flag Passes

11 – Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Three wins, 14 top fives, 18 top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 11.0 in 33 races
• Series-best Average Running Position of 7.8
• Driver Rating of 107.3, second-best
• 310 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• 650 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 124.520 mph
• Series-high 3,446 Laps in the Top 15 (89.1%)
• Series-high 471 Quality Passes

12 – Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Ground Toyota)
• One win, five top fives, eight top 10s
• Average finish of 7.2 in 11 races
• Average Running Position of 10.9, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 100.5, fourth-best
• 96 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 124.242 mph, fifth-fastest
• 2,437 Laps in the Top 15 (74.6%), eighth-most
• 387 Quality Passes, sixth-most

“MAGIC MILE” HIGHLIGHTS
• Rusty Wallace won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Loudon in 1993.
• There have been 17 different pole winners, led by Ryan Newman (five).
• 20 different drivers have won, led by Jeff Burton (four).
• Jimmie Johnson (2003) and Kurt Busch (2004) are the only drivers that have posted season sweeps. Those are also the only back-to-back winners.
• Hendrick Motorsports has won eight races, more than any other organization.
• There have been five winners who started from the pole. The last race winner to win from the pole was Ryan Newman this past July.
• Jeff Burton led all 300 laps raced in the 2000 fall race.
• Five drivers got their first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series win at New Hampshire: Joe Nemechek (1999), Robby Gordon (2001), Ryan Newman (2002), Clint Bowyer (2007) and Joey Logano (2009).
• The last four races that have not finished under caution have had a margin of victory of less than a second.

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