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New Hampshire Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Lenox Industrial Tools 301
THE PLACE: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, July 17, 2011 – 1:16/et, 12:16/ct

This Sunday, NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers make their first of two annual visits to “The Magic Mile” in Loudon, New Hampshire for the Lenox Industrial Tools 301. Drivers will make 301 laps around this relatively flat, 1.058-mile track. This track opened in 1990, ran its first Cup series race in 1993, and added a second Cup race in 1997 when North Wilkesboro Speedway was dropped from the schedule. In 2002, the speedway’s corners were modified to progressive banking, going from 4 degrees at the bottom to 12 degrees at the top. Then in 2003, an incident with Dale Jarrett stuck on the main straightaway while the rest of the field raced around him back to the caution flag proved to be the final straw in NASCAR’s decision to implement the “lucky dog” rule.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 18 Kyle Busch
2) 22 Kurt Busch
3) 48 Jimmie Johnson
4) 24 Jeff Gordon
5) 11 Denny Hamlin
6) 14 Tony Stewart
7) 99 Carl Edwards
8) 33 Clint Bowyer
9) 39 Ryan Newman
10) 29 Kevin Harvick
11) 4 Kasey Kahne
12) 20 Joey Logano
13) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
14) 16 Greg Biffle
15) 17 Matt Kenseth
16) 5 Mark Martin
17) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
18) 31 Jeff Burton
19) 2 Brad Keselowski
20) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
21) 00 David Reutimann
22) 1 Jamie McMurray
23) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
24) 6 David Ragan
25) 83 Brian Vickers

NEW HAMPSHIRE DRIVER STATS
Kyle Busch (No. 18 Interstate Batteries Toyota)
• One win, four top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 14.7
• Driver Rating of 91.3, 10th-best
• 111 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
• 600 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
• 2,192 Laps in the Top 15 (61.5%), 10th-most
• 319 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell / Pennzoil Dodge)
• Three wins, seven top fives, 10 top 10s
• Average finish of 13.7
• Average Running Position of 12.8, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 93.5, eighth-best
• 125 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 607 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 124.086 mph, seventh-fastest
• 2,505 Laps in the Top 15 (70.2%), sixth-most
• 392 Quality Passes, third-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• Three wins, six top fives, 12 top 10s
• Average finish of 9.9
• Average Running Position of 9.6, third-best
• Driver Rating of 106.8, third-best
• 300 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 124.241 mph, fourth-fastest
• 3,029 Laps in the Top 15 (84.9%), second-most
• 390 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive To End Hunger Chevrolet)
• Three wins, 14 top fives, 18 top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 11.0
• Series-best Average Running Position of 7.6
• Driver Rating of 107.0, second-best
• 270 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• 563 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 124.473 mph
• Series-high 3,206 Laps in the Top 15 (89.9%)
• 411 Quality Passes, second-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Freight Toyota)
• One win, four top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 7.6
• Average Running Position of 10.6, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 100.5, fourth-best
• 93 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 124.215 mph, fifth-fastest
• 2,278 Laps in the Top 15 (76.8%), eighth-most
• 359 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot / Mobile 1 Chevrolet)
• Two wins, 12 top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 12.4
• Average Running Position of 9.2, second-best
• Series-best Driver Rating of 113.0
• Series-high 334 Fastest Laps Run
• 590 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 124.417 mph, second-fastest
• 2,872 Laps in the Top 15 (80.5%), third-most
• 380 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 SCOTTS ORTHO Ford)
• Two top fives, two top 10s
• Average finish of 14.5
• Average Running Position of 14.1, 12th-best
• Driver Rating of 87.9, 13th-best
• 118 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 123.916 mph, 12th-fastest
• 1,966 Laps in the Top 15 (55.1%), 12th-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet)
• Two wins, two top fives, four top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 16.1
• Average Running Position of 12.9, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 96.6, sixth-best
• 210 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 124.157 mph, sixth-fastest
• 2,024 Laps in the Top 15 (68.2%), 11th-most
• 272 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), 13th-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 U. S. Army Chevrolet)
• Two wins, five top fives, 12 top 10s; four poles
• Average finish of 13.0
• Average Running Position of 14.1, 13th-best
• Driver Rating of 90.8, 12th-best
• 105 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
• 2,487 Laps in the Top 15 (69.7%), seventh-most
• 319 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)
• One win, five top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 13.9
• Average Running Position of 13.2, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 92.6, ninth-best
• 133 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 555 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 124.001 mph, eighth-fastest
• 2,223 Laps in the Top 15 (62.3%), ninth-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
• One win, nine top fives, 14 top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 11.7
• Average Running Position of 13.3, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 91.0, 11th-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 123.998 mph, ninth-fastest

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard / AMP Energy Chevrolet)
• Six top fives, 10 top 10s
• Average finish of 16.8
• Average Running Position of 11.3, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 99.7, fifth-best
• 194 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• 637 Green Flag Passes, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 124.390 mph, third-fastest
• 2,807 Laps in the Top 15 (78.7%), fourth-most
• Series-high 412 Quality Passes

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
• Four wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s
• Average finish of 13.5
• Average Running Position of 11.7, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 94.6, seventh-best
• 121 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• 589 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
• 2,554 Laps in the Top 15 (71.6%), fifth-most
• 303 Quality Passes, ninth-most

“MAGIC MILE” HIGHLIGHTS
• Rusty Wallace won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race in 1993.
• There have been 17 different pole winners, led by Ryan Newman (four).
• 20 different drivers have won, led by Jeff Burton (four).
• Jimmie Johnson (2003) and Kurt Busch (2004) are the only drivers that have posted season sweeps. Those are also the only back-to-back winners.
• Hendrick Motorsports has won eight races, more than any other organization.
• There have been four winners who started from the pole. The last race winner to win from the pole was Clint Bowyer in 2007. He scored a perfect Driver Rating of 150.0 that event.
• Jeff Burton led all 300 laps raced in the 2000 fall race.
• Eight of the last nine races that finished under green had a margin of victory of less than a second.

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