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New Hampshire Fantasy Forecast

NEW HAMPSHIRE MOTOR SPEEDWAY
Sylvania 300
Sunday, September 19, 2010 in Loudon, NH

This Sunday, NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers make their second of two annual visits to “The Magic Mile” in Loudon, New Hampshire for the Sylvania 300. Drivers will make 300 laps around this relatively flat 1.058-mile track. In 2002, the speedway’s corners were modified to progressive banking, going from 4 degrees at the bottom to 12 degrees at the top.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on a statistical formula that includes drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 14 Tony Stewart
3) 18 Kyle Busch
4) 24 Jeff Gordon
5) 2 Kurt Busch
6) 11 Denny Hamlin
7) 33 Clint Bowyer
8) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
9) 39 Ryan Newman
10) 99 Carl Edwards
11) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
12) 29 Kevin Harvick
13) 5 Mark Martin
14) 31 Jeff Burton
15) 20 Joey Logano
16) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
17) 00 David Reutimann
18) 16 Greg Biffle
19) 47 Marcos Ambrose
20) 17 Matt Kenseth
21) 9 Kasey Kahne
22) 1 Jamie McMurray
23) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
24) 12 Brad Keselowski
25) 83 Reed Sorenson

LOUDON, NEW HAMPSHIRE DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Three wins, six top fives, 12 top 10s
? Average finish of 9.0 in 17 races
? Average Running Position of 9.4, second-best
? Driver Rating of 107.9, second-best
? 284 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 124.160 mph, fourth-fastest
? 2,830 Laps in the Top 15 (86.7%), second-most
? 369 Quality Passes, third-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Two wins, 12 top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 11.9 in 23 races
? Average Running Position of 9.7, third-best
? Series-best Driver Rating of 114.1
? Series-high 305 Fastest Laps Run
? 549 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 124.439 mph
? 2,578 Laps in the Top 15 (78.9%), third-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? One win, four top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 15.2 in 11 races
? Average Running Position of 14.8, 15th-best
? Driver Rating of 91.1, 11th-best
? 110 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? 550 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
? 1,903 Laps in the Top 15 (58.3%), 10th-most
? 284 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Three wins, 14 top fives, 17 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 11.2 in 31 races
? Series-best Average Running Position of 7.3
? Driver Rating of 107.9, second-best
? 264 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 124.420 mph, second-fastest
? Series-high 2,961 Laps in the Top 15 (90.7%)

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? Three wins, seven top fives, 10 top 10s
? Average finish of 13.7 in 19 races
? Average Running Position of 12.9, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.6, eighth-best
? 122 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 124.007 mph, seventh-fastest
? 2,245 Laps in the Top 15 (68.7%), seventh-most
? 349 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? One win, three top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 8.2 in nine races
? Average Running Position of 10.6, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 99.8, fifth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 124.124 mph, fifth-fastest
? 2,063 Laps in the Top 15 (77.4%), ninth-most
? 321 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), sixth-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet)
? One win, one top five, three top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 17.8 in nine races
? Average Running Position of 14.2, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 90.7, 12th-best
? 121 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 124.002 mph, eighth-fastest
? 1,725 Laps in the Top 15 (64.7%), 12th-most
? 251 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? Two top fives, two top 10s
? Average finish of 14.8 in 12 races
? Average Running Position of 14.8, 14th-best
? Driver Rating of 85.9, 16th-best
? 102 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
? 501 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? One win, four top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 14.3 in 19 races
? Average Running Position of 13.1, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.0, ninth-best
? 130 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.928 mph, ninth-fastest
? 2,078 Laps in the Top 15 (63.6%), eighth-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? Four wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s
? Average finish of 13.5 in 31 races
? Average Running Position of 12.1, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 94.0, seventh-best
? 116 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 539 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.895 mph, 10th-fastest
? 2,276 Laps in the Top 15 (69.7%), sixth-most
? 269 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? One win, four top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 17.4 in 16 races
? Average Running Position of 15.4, 16th-best
? Driver Rating of 86.8, 14th-best
? 569 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
? 257 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
? Five top fives, 11 top 10s
? Average finish of 13.7 in 21 races
? Average Running Position of 17.1, 17th-best
? Driver Rating of 79.6, 19th-best
? Series-high 630 Green Flag Passes

“MAGIC MILE” HIGHLIGHTS
? Rusty Wallace won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Loudon in 1993.
? There have been 16 different pole winners, led by Ryan Newman (four).
? 20 different drivers have won, led by Jeff Burton (four).
? Last season, Joey Logano became the all-time youngest NASCAR Sprint Cup race winner at 19 years, one month and four days.
? Jimmie Johnson (2003) and Kurt Busch (2004) are the only drivers who have posted season sweeps. Those are also the only back-to-back winners. Johnson, who won the June race, looks to repeat the feat.
? Hendrick Motorsports has won eight races, more than any other organization.
? There have been four winners who started from the pole. The last race winner to win from the pole was Clint Bowyer in 2007. He scored a perfect Driver Rating of 150.0 that event.
? There have been 11 consecutive different race winners.
? Jeff Burton led all 300 laps raced in the 2000 fall race.
? Five drivers got their first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series win at New Hampshire: Joe Nemechek (1999), Robby Gordon (2001), Ryan Newman (2002), Clint Bowyer (2007) and Joey Logano (2009).

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