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New Hampshire Fantasy Forecast

NEW HAMPSHIRE MOTOR SPEEDWAY
Lenox Industrial Tools 301
Sunday, June 28, 2009 in Loudon, NH

This Sunday, NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers make their first of two annual visits to ?The Magic Mile? in Loudon, New Hampshire for the Lenox Industrial Tools 301. Drivers will make 301 laps around this relatively flat, 1.058-mile track. This track opened in 1990, ran its first Cup series race in 1993, and added a second Cup race in 1997 when North Wilkesboro Speedway was dropped from the schedule. In 2002, the speedway?s corners were modified to progressive banking, going from 4 degrees at the bottom to 12 degrees at the top. Then in 2003, an incident with Dale Jarrett stuck on the main straightaway while the rest of the field raced around him back to the caution flag proved to be the final straw in NASCAR?s decision to implement the ?lucky dog? rule.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers? success at this track and other similar tracks such as Phoenix and Richmond, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing. I also factor in key driver stats from their most recent runs at Loudon.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 14 Tony Stewart
2) 48 Jimmie Johnson
3) 11 Denny Hamlin
4) 5 Mark Martin
5) 99 Carl Edwards
6) 24 Jeff Gordon
7) 16 Greg Biffle
8) 2 Kurt Busch
9) 31 Jeff Burton
10) 39 Ryan Newman
11) 1 Martin Truex Jr.
12) 29 Kevin Harvick
13) 33 Clint Bowyer
14) 18 Kyle Busch
15) 17 Matt Kenseth
16) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
17) 47 Marcos Ambrose
18) 9 Kasey Kahne
19) 26 Jamie McMurray
20) 07 Casey Mears
21) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
22) 83 Brian Vickers
23) 00 David Reutimann
24) 77 Sam Hornish Jr.
25) 43 Reed Sorenson

For the third consecutive year, New Hampshire Motor Speedway hosts the first event in the Race to the Chase ? the 10 races preceding the ?post-season? Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. As the points currently stand, four drivers inside the top 12 are within 50 points of being bounced out of the top 12: Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Mark Martin and Juan Pablo Montoya. And three drivers outside the top 12 are 50 points from vaulting into the top 12: Kasey Kahne, David Reutimann and Jeff Burton. In other words, it?s close ? very close. The next 10 races and tracks will decide who?s in and who?s out.

The statistics suggest Busch is the safest of those inside the top 12. He has a 48-point cushion to the Chase cutoff, and has the fifth-best average Driver Rating at the next 10 tracks (96.9). Of those on the outside looking in, Burton seems most likely to make the comeback. At the next 10 tracks, he has a Driver Rating of 86.4 and Average Running Position of 15.2.

Tony Stewart, with one win this season, seems most likely to pad his bonus points total. He has 21 career wins at the next 10 tracks, as well as a Driver Rating of 106.1 and an Average Running Position of 10.5 ? both of which are the best among drivers currently in the top 15.

SELECTED LOUDON, NH DRIVER STATS
Tony Stewart (No. 14 Old Spice/Office Depot Chevrolet)
? Two wins, 10 top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 12.6
? Average Running Position of 9.9, third-best
? Series-best Driver Rating of 115.6
? Series-high 235 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 124.308 mph
? 1,883 Laps in the Top 15 (78.7%), fourth-most
? 229 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Two wins, four top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 9.9
? Average Running Position of 10.7, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 102.8, fifth-best
? 160 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.808 mph, eighth-fastest
? 1,979 Laps in the Top 15 (82.7%), second-most
? 232 Quality Passes, third-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? One win, two top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 7.2
? Average Running Position of 9.2, second-best
? Driver Rating of 103.6, third-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 124.031 mph, fourth-fastest
? 1,564 Laps in the Top 15 (87.3%), eighth-most
? 223 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 Kellogg’s/CARQUEST Chevrolet)
? Eight top fives, 13 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 11.0
? Average Running Position of 12.6, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 92.1, 10th-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.786 mph, ninth-fastest

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Three wins, 12 top fives, 15 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 11.6
? Series-best Average Running Position of 7.5
? Driver Rating of 106.7, second-best
? 196 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 124.241 mph, second-fastest
? Series-high 2,142 Laps in the Top 15 (89.5%)
? Series-high 261 Quality Passes

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? Four wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s
? Average finish of 12.8
? Average Running Position of 11.4, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 96.4, seventh-best
? 341 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.925 mph, sixth-fastest
? 1,772 Laps in the Top 15 (74.1%), sixth-most
? 178 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Martin Truex Jr. (No. 1 GE Reveal Chevrolet)
? Three top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 9.8
? Average Running Position of 12.6, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.6, eighth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.764 mph, 10th-fastest
? 164 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? One win, three top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 12.6
? Average Running Position of 10.1, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 102.2, sixth-best
? 122 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 123.975 mph, fifth-fastest
? 1,791 Laps in the Top 15 (74.9%), fifth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
? Five top fives, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 17.2
? Average Running Position of 10.9, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 103.1, fourth-best
? 140 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 124.222 mph, third-fastest
? 1,899 Laps in the Top 15 (79.4%), third-most
? 238 Quality Passes, second-most

?MAGIC MILE? HIGHLIGHTS
? Loudon?s first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race was held on July 11, 1993.
? Mark Martin won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup pole, a race won by Rusty Wallace.
? Four drivers have competed in all 27 races: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte and Joe Nemechek.
? There have been 15 different pole winners, led by Ryan Newman (four).
? 18 different drivers have posted victories, led by Jeff Burton (four).
? Jimmie Johnson (2003) and Kurt Busch (2004) are the only drivers that have posted season sweeps. Those are also the only back-to-back winners.
? Roush Fenway Racing has won seven races, more than any other organization.
? 15 of 28 races have been won from the top-10 starting positions, including four from the pole.
? There have been eight different pole winners in the past eight New Hampshire qualifying attempts.
? There have been seven different race winners in the past seven New Hampshire races.
? Jeff Burton led all 300 laps raced in the 2000 fall race.
? Clint Bowyer led 222 laps and scored a perfect Driver Rating of 150.0 in the 2007 fall New Hampshire race.

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