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Michigan Fantasy Forecast
- Updated: August 18, 2011
THE RACE: Pure Michigan 400
THE PLACE: Michigan International Speedway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, August 21, 2011 – 1:19pm/et, 12:19/ct
NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers head to Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn Michigan this weekend for the second time in the 2011 season. 200 laps are scheduled on this two-mile superspeedway. This multi-groove track features wide, sweeping 18-degree corners, long straightaways, and 12-degrees of banking on the tri-oval front stretch.
The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.
TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 14 Tony Stewart
2) 48 Jimmie Johnson
3) 99 Carl Edwards
4) 17 Matt Kenseth
5) 18 Kyle Busch
6) 16 Greg Biffle
7) 11 Denny Hamlin
8) 29 Kevin Harvick
9) 4 Kasey Kahne
10) 33 Clint Bowyer
11) 24 Jeff Gordon
12) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
13) 22 Kurt Busch
14) 39 Ryan Newman
15) 83 Brian Vickers
16) 5 Mark Martin
17) 20 Joey Logano
18) 27 Paul Menard
19) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
20) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
21) 31 Jeff Burton
22) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
23) 1 Jamie McMurray
24) 2 Brad Keselowski
25) 00 David Reutimann
MICHIGAN DRIVER STATS
Tony Stewart (No. 14 Mobil 1/Office Depot Chevrolet)
• One win, 10 top fives, 17 top 10s
• Average finish of 11.6
• Average Running Position of 12.4, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 97.5, sixth-best
• 80 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
• 902 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 173.673 mph, fifth-fastest
• 1,884 Laps in the Top 15 (74.3%), fifth-most
• 520 Quality Passes, fifth-most
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• Two top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 15.8
• Average Running Position of 10.1, third-best
• Driver Rating of 105.3, third-best
• Series-high 259 Fastest Laps Run
• Average Green Flag Speed of 174.132 mph, second-fastest
• 1,979 Laps in the Top 15 (78.1%), fourth-most
• 489 Quality Passes, seventh-most
Carl Edwards (No. 99 AFLAC Ford)
• Two wins, nine top fives, 12 top 10s
• Average finish of 6.2
• Series-best Average Running Position of 8.0
• Series-best Driver Rating of 110.8
• 171 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• 961 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 174.152 mph
• Series-high 2,276 Laps in the Top 15 (89.8%)
• Series-high 691 Quality Passes
Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Kroger Ford)
• Two wins, 11 top fives, 15 top 10s
• Average finish of 9.5
• Average Running Position of 11.2, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 103.5, fourth-best
• 130 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 949 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 173.882 mph, fourth-fastest
• 1,983 Laps in the Top 15 (78.2%), third-most
• 597 Quality Passes, third-most
Kyle Busch (No. 18 Interstate Batteries Toyota)
• Two top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 16.6
• Average Running Position of 13.8, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 93.3, 11th-best
• 91 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
• 871 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 173.446 mph, 10th-fastest
• 1,769 Laps in the Top 15 (69.8%), sixth-most
• 485 Quality Passes, eighth-most
Greg Biffle (No. 16 Pure Michigan Ford)
• Two wins, seven top fives, 10 top 10s
• Average finish of 12.4
• Average Running Position of 8.7, second-best
• Driver Rating of 106.1, second-best
• 185 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• 920 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 174.055 mph, third-fastest
• 2,119 Laps in the Top 15 (83.6%), second-most
• 623 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), second-most
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Freight Toyota)
• Two wins, five top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 10.0
• Average Running Position of 11.0, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 99.1, fifth-best
• 92 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 173.658 mph, sixth-fastest
• 1,602 Laps in the Top 15 (75.0%), 10th-most
• 519 Quality Passes, sixth-most
Kasey Kahne (No. 4 Red Bull Toyota)
• One win, six top fives, six top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 16.0
• Driver Rating of 86.7, 12th-best
• 110 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 986 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 173.291 mph, 12th-fastest
• 1,366 Laps in the Top 15 (53.9%), 12th-most
• 458 Quality Passes, 10th-most
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Two wins, 18 top fives, 23 top 10s; five poles
• Average finish of 11.6
• Average Running Position of 12.7, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 94.4, ninth-best
• 132 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 173.553 mph, eighth-fastest
• 1,684 Laps in the Top 15 (66.4%), eighth-most
• 482 Quality Passes, ninth-most
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard/AMP Energy Chevrolet)
• One win, four top fives, eight top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 15.9
• Average Running Position of 12.9, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 94.5, eighth-best
• 116 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 1,041 Green Flag Passes, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 173.526 mph, ninth-fastest
• 1,610 Laps in the Top 15 (63.5%), ninth-most
• 546 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• Two wins, three top fives, eight top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 20.0
• Average Running Position of 13.5, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 96.5, seventh-best
• 131 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 173.627 mph, seventh-fastest
• 1,764 Laps in the Top 15 (69.6%), seventh-most
Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
• One win, two top fives, eight top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 14.8
• Average Running Position of 15.1, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 93.9, 10th-best
• 94 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
Mark Martin (No. 5 CARQUEST/GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
• Five wins, 17 top fives, 30 top 10s
• Average finish of 13.5
• Average Running Position of 15.9, 13th-best
• Driver Rating of 84.2, 13th-best
• 70 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
• 1,477 Laps in the Top 15 (58.3%), 11th-most
MICHIGAN HIGHLIGHTS
• The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was won by Cale Yarborough in 1969.
• Mark Martin leads all active drivers with five poles.
• The race winner has started from the pole 16 times, the most productive starting position. Brian Vickers (August 2009)was the last driver to win from the pole.
• 65 of 84 races have been won from a top-10 starting position, including 46 from the first four spots.
• The deepest in the field a race winner has started was 32nd, by Mark Martin in last season’s June race.
• The Wood Brothers and Roush Fenway Racing both have 11 wins, more than any other car owners.
• Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin are the only active drivers to average a top-10 finish.