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Michigan Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400
THE PLACE: Michigan International Speedway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, June 19, 2011 – 1:18pm/et, 12:18/ct

Resting in the peaceful Irish Hills of southeastern Michigan lies the massive Michigan International Speedway. It won’t be peaceful this weekend as NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers tempt to tame the Brooklyn Michigan track in the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400. 200 laps are scheduled on this two-mile superspeedway. With its wide sweeping 18-degree corners, long straightaways, and 12-degree tri-oval front stretch, there’s plenty of room to pass and plenty of speed.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 99 Carl Edwards
3) 11 Denny Hamlin
4) 29 Kevin Harvick
5) 17 Matt Kenseth
6) 24 Jeff Gordon
7) 14 Tony Stewart
8) 16 Greg Biffle
9) 22 Kurt Busch
10) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
11) 4 Kasey Kahne
12) 18 Kyle Busch
13) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
14) 33 Clint Bowyer
15) 83 Brian Vickers
16) 5 Mark Martin
17) 31 Jeff Burton
18) 20 Joey Logano
19) 00 David Reutimann
20) 6 David Ragan
21) 39 Ryan Newman
22) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
23) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
24) 1 Jamie McMurray
25) 2 Brad Keselowski

MICHIGAN DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s / KOBALT Tools Chevrolet)
• Two top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 15.2
• Series-best Average Running Position of 8.0
• Driver Rating of 110.3, second-best
• Series-high 258 Fastest Laps Run
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 174.078 mph
• 1,979 Laps in the Top 15 (84.8%), second-most
• 489 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 AFLAC Ford)
• Two wins, eight top fives, 11 top 10s
• Average finish of 6.3
• Average Running Position of 8.1, second-best
• Series-best Driver Rating of 110.5
• 146 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• 899 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 173.975 mph, second-fastest
• Series-high 2,086 Laps in the Top 15 (89.3%)
• Series-high 642 Quality Passes

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Office Toyota)
• One win, four top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 10.9
• Average Running Position of 11.1, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 98.3, fifth-best
• 83 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 173.487 mph, sixth-fastest
• 1,431 Laps in the Top 15 (74.0%), 10th-most
• 460 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)
• One win, three top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 14.7
• Driver Rating of 83.9, 13th-best
• 68 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
• 920 Green Flag Passes, second-most
• 382 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
• Two wins, 10 top fives, 14 top 10s
• Average finish of 9.8
• Average Running Position of 11.8, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 101.2, fourth-best
• 92 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 884 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 173.642 mph, fourth-fastest
• 1,791 Laps in the Top 15 (76.7%), fourth-most
• 552 Quality Passes, third-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet)
• Two wins, 18 top fives, 23 top 10s; five poles
• Average finish of 11.4
• Average Running Position of 12.1, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 96.2, seventh-best
• 127 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 173.434 mph, seventh-fastest
• 1,641 Laps in the Top 15 (70.3%), sixth-most
• 458 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)
• One win, 10 top fives, 16 top 10s
• Average finish of 11.8
• Average Running Position of 12.4, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 97.9, sixth-best
• 77 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
• 823 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 173.503 mph, fifth-fastest
• 1,722 Laps in the Top 15 (73.7%), fifth-most
• 472 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 RED CROSS Ford)
• Two wins, seven top fives, 10 top 10s
• Average finish of 12.3
• Average Running Position of 9.0, third-best
• Driver Rating of 104.8, third-best
• 155 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• 852 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 173.862 mph, third-fastest
• 1,937 Laps in the Top 15 (83.0%), third-most
• 580 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), second-most

Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• Two wins, three top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 20.5
• Average Running Position of 14.1, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 95.3, ninth-best
• 122 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 173.433 mph, eighth-fastest
• 1,564 Laps in the Top 15 (67.0%), eighth-most
• 405 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
• One win, four top fives, eight top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 15.7
• Average Running Position of 12.7, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 95.9, eighth-best
• 114 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 920 Green Flag Passes, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 173.380 mph, ninth-fastest
• 1,500 Laps in the Top 15 (64.2%), ninth-most
• 493 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 4 Red Bull Toyota)
• One win, six top fives, six top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 15.1
• Average Running Position of 16.0, 12th-best
• Driver Rating of 86.6, 12th-best
• 104 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 887 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 173.089 mph, 12th-fastest
• 1,230 Laps in the Top 15 (52.7%), 12th-most
• 403 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Snickers Toyota)
• One top five, three top 10s
• Average finish of 17.8
• Average Running Position of 14.6, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 90.7, 11th-best
• 75 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
• 796 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
• 1,580 Laps in the Top 15 (67.7%), seventh-most
• 437 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
• One win, two top fives, seven top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 15.3
• Average Running Position of 15.5, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 93.6, 10th-best
• 89 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 173.090 mph, 11th-fastest
• 1,175 Laps in the Top 15 (60.7%), 13th-most

MICHIGAN HIGHLIGHTS
• Cale Yarborough won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Michigan in 1969.
• 33 different drivers have won races, led by David Pearson (nine); 18 have more than one victory there.
• The race winner has started from the pole 16 times, the most productive starting position. Brian Vickers was the last driver to win from the pole the fall race of 2009.
• 65 of 83 races have been won from a top-10 starting position, including 46 from the first four spots.
• The Wood Brothers and Roush Fenway Racing both have 11 wins, more than any other car owners.
• Among active drivers, Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth average a top-10 finish. Edwards, who has two Michigan wins, has an average finish of 6.3. Edwards’ first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series start came at Michigan. Kenseth, who also has two victories, has an average finish of 9.8.

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