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Michigan Fantasy Forecast

MICHIGAN INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Carfax 400
Sunday, August 15, 2010 in Brooklyn, MI

NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers head to Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn Michigan this weekend for the running of the Carfax 400. 200 laps are scheduled on this two-mile superspeedway. This multi-groove track features wide, sweeping 18-degree corners, long straightaways, and 12-degrees of banking on the tri-oval front stretch.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on a statistical formula I’ve developed over years of analyzing races. It factors in drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 99 Carl Edwards
2) 14 Tony Stewart
3) 48 Jimmie Johnson
4) 24 Jeff Gordon
5) 11 Denny Hamlin
6) 17 Matt Kenseth
7) 2 Kurt Busch
8) 16 Greg Biffle
9) 29 Kevin Harvick
10) 5 Mark Martin
11) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
12) 1 Jamie McMurray
13) 18 Kyle Busch
14) 31 Jeff Burton
15) 33 Clint Bowyer
16) 9 Kasey Kahne
17) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
18) 20 Joey Logano
19) 6 David Ragan
20) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
21) 00 David Reutimann
22) 39 Ryan Newman
23) 98 Paul Menard
24) 77 Sam Hornish Jr.
25) 43 A.J. Allmendinger

MICHIGAN DRIVER STATS
Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? Ninth in points
? Two wins, seven top fives, 10 top 10s
? Average finish of 6.6
? Series-best Average Running Position of 7.9
? Series-best Driver Rating of 111.2
? 143 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 792 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 173.943 mph, second-fastest
? Series-high 1,901 Laps in the Top 15 (89.0%)
? Series-high 558 Quality Passes

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Eighth in points
? One win, 10 top fives, 15 top 10s
? Average finish of 12.1
? Average Running Position of 13.3, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 95.7, ninth-best
? 56 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
? 782 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 173.392 mph, ninth-fastest
? 1,522 Laps in the Top 15 (71.3%), seventh-most
? 431 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Fifth in points
? Two top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 15.4
? Average Running Position of 7.9, second-best
? Driver Rating of 110.7, second-best
? Series-high 252 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 174.048 mph
? 1,809 Laps in the Top 15 (84.7%), second-most
? 449 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Second in points
? Two wins, 18 top fives, 23 top 10s; five poles
? Average finish of 11.0
? Average Running Position of 11.9, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 97.9, eighth-best
? 113 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 173.417 mph, seventh-fastest
? 1,533 Laps in the Top 15 (71.8%), sixth-most
? 421 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Express Toyota)
? Sixth in points
? One win, three top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 11.9
? Average Running Position of 11.0, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 98.4, seventh-best
? 80 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 173.455 mph, sixth-fastest
? 1,292 Laps in the Top 15 (74.5%), 11th-most
? 411 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
? 10th in points
? Two wins, nine top fives, 13 top 10s
? Average finish of 10.0
? Average Running Position of 11.9, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 101.2, fourth-best
? 90 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? 817 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 173.592 mph, fourth-fastest
? 1,607 Laps in the Top 15 (75.3%), fourth-most
? 499 Quality Passes, third-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite/Vortex Dodge)
? Fourth in points
? Two wins, three top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 19.4
? Average Running Position of 12.2, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 99.5, fifth-best
? 122 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 173.413 mph, eighth-fastest
? 1,535 Laps in the Top 15 (71.9%), fifth-most
? 392 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? Enters Michigan 11th in points
? Two wins, six top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 12.8
? Average Running Position of 9.5, third-best
? Driver Rating of 102.8, third-best
? 129 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? 789 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 173.747 mph, third
? 1,740 Laps in the Top 15 (81.5%), third-most
? 517 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), second-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
? 12th in points
? Five wins, 17 top fives, 29 top 10s
? Average finish of 13.3
? Average Running Position of 15.0, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 86.9, 12th-best
? 64 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 173.072 mph, 11th-fastest
? 1,305 Laps in the Top 15 (61.1%), 10th-most
? 363 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Interstate Batteries Toyota)
? Seventh in points
? One top five, three top 10s
? Average finish of 17.7
? Average Running Position of 14.9, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 91.2, 11th-best
? 73 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 173.133 mph, 10th
? 1,447 Laps in the Top 15 (67.8%), ninth-most
? 390 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Ford)
? 17th in points
? One win, six top fives, six top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 15.2
? Average Running Position of 16.8, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 84.9, 13th-best
? 99 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? 808 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.962 mph, 13th-fastest
? 1,035 Laps in the Top 15 (48.5%), 13th-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard “Drive The Guard”/AMP Energy Chevrolet)
? 16th in points
? One win, four top fives, eight top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 15.5
? Average Running Position of 11.7, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 98.6, sixth-best
? 113 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 821 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 173.470 mph, fifth-fastest
? 1,497 Laps in the Top 15 (70.1%), eighth-most
? 492 Quality Passes, fourth-most

MICHIGAN HIGHLIGHTS
? The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was won by Cale Yarborough in 1969.
? The race winner has started from the pole 16 times, the most productive starting position.
? 64 of 82 races have been won from a top-10 starting position, including 46 from the first four spots.
? The Wood Brothers and Roush Fenway Racing both have 11 wins, more than any other car owners.
? Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth are the only drivers to average a top-10 finish. Edwards, who has two Michigan wins, has an average finish of 6.6. Coincidentally, Edwards’ first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series start came at Michigan. Kenseth, who also has two victories, has an average finish of 10.0.

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