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Mash The Gas – Talladega Preview

The big wild card race of the Chase for the Sprint Cup looms this weekend with the Good Sam Roadside Assistance 500 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series event on Sunday October 7th at Talladega Superspeedway.

Known for the “big one” incident that can take out any car at any time, Talladega is unpredictable in many ways. The eventual winner can come from anywhere in the field during a restrictor plate race and may not be the driver that leads the white flag lap or have led at any point during the race.

At the end of the race in the spring, Kyle Busch pushed Brad Keselowski to the front and the two separated from the pack. On the final lap, the thought was that Busch would draft past Keselowski for the win. But, in true unpredictable fashion, Keselowski was able to wiggle away from Busch. Busch lost the draft and settled for second place.

Talladega traditionally means speed and close quarters racing and one minor mistake in the restrictor plate induced pack could trigger “the big one” and turn the Chase point standings upside down.

The green flag is scheduled to start the race at 2:20 EDT for 188 laps of white knuckle racing. If you are not in the stands at Talladega, you can catch the race on ESPN.

Favorites:
Brad Keselowski
John Wiedemann: We missed Brad Keselowski in our spring race preview and he went out and won the race. With two wins in the Chase already, Keselowski is hitting on all cylinders and should be considered a favorite for the rest of the year. This is the kind of Chase to the Cup that I was looking for and Keselowski is making it happen.

Dan Margetta: Keselowski has been the star of the 2012 Chase so far and his Dover win last weekend vaulted him back into the points lead. In the Spring race at Talladega it was Keselowski who spoiled the Roush-Fenway party to steal the victory in the final laps and the team brings yet another brand new car to the track this weekend. If Keselowski can avoid the trouble that sometimes comes with his aggressive plate racing style, he has an opportunity to gap the rest of the Chase field and separate himself from the rest of the title contenders.

Jimmie Johnson
DM: If Jimmie Johnson wants to keep up with Brad Keselowski in the Chase battle, he needs to improve on his 2012 restrictor plate results. Johnson has finished 35th or worse in this season’s plate races to date and the team brings back the same car that raced here in the spring as well as the Daytona summer race. Trouble is this car has yet to complete a race this year but the team is confident its luck will turn around.

JW: Keselowski has the 48 team taking notice and you can be sure they are on their game as they look to return to Champion status. An oil pump derailed Johnson’s race in the spring adding to a list of mechanical issues that jumped up and bit the team throughout the season. Talladega is Johnson’s worst track on the circuit for driver rating and in twenty-one races there he has finished in the top-five only five times. Two of those top five finishes were wins, in the spring races of 2006 and 2011. Avoiding gremlins, the big one and reversing this year’s plate race results will keep Johnson in a tight Championship battle.

Clint Bowyer
JW: Clint Bowyer has won two out of the last four races at Talladegga and in the other two he finished second and sixth (in the spring race). Bowyer needs a win to get into the Championship mix and Talladega is a good track for him to make that happen.

DM: Bowyer is an outstanding plate racer who seems to shine in the Fall event at Talladega, scoring victories in each of the last two years. In addition, he has top ten finishes in each of his last five Talladega starts, including three top five results. Currently sitting solidly in fourth place in the Chase standings, Bowyer is still within striking distance of the Cup and Talladega provides a strong opportunity to establish himself as serious championship contender.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
DM: Junior Nation is eagerly anticipating the Good Sam 500 at Talladega as the massive speedway is one of Earnhardt’s best race tracks. Earnhardt owns the second best driver rating at Talladega to go along with his five Talladega victories. A win this weekend will not only please the fan base, it will inject the #88 team right back into the 2012 title fight.

Kyle Busch
JW: Kyle Busch isn’t giving up during the Chase even though he is not part of it. Busch still wants to win no matter what. Pushing Keselowski to the front and then battling him for the win in the spring race should provide even more fire to Busch going for the win this weekend, although he doesn’t need any extra encouragement to find victory lane. Busch has one win at the big track back in 2008.

Greg Biffle
DM: This is a critical race for the regular season point leader as we see how the team responds from a dismal showing last weekend at Dover. Mired deep in the points in eleventh, a win at Talladega is imperative to Biffle’s title hopes. The Roush-Fenway cars have proven to be the fastest on the plate tracks this season and Biffle has been a factor in each race despite having no victories to show for it. The #16 team left Dover with a somewhat defeated outlook and Talladega could provide the boost they need to get back in the title fight.

Matt Kenseth
DM: The Daytona 500 winner has figured into the finish of every restrictor plate race this season. The #17 Ford Fusion was the car to beat in each of the three previous plate races but that was before the mechanical gremlins that have recently plagued the team surfaced. It’s nearly impossible to win races at this level when things are falling off the car and Kenseth needs a strong run to restore the team’s confidence.

Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth
JW: The two Roush Fenway Racing drivers dropped to the bottom of the Chase standings but both have had fast cars in the restrictor plate races. Anything can happen at Talladega and they could surge in the standings with a solid finish and misfortune befalling the point leaders. Sad to say, this is the exact scenario they need if they have any hope to sniff the Championship battle.

Kevin Harvick
DM: Harvick seems to enjoy restrictor plate style racing and Talladega presents an opportunity for the #29 team to capture its first victory of the season. If Harvick and crew chief Gil Martin are serious about making a title run, it needs to start this week as Harvick will wheel the same car he raced to a top ten finish in the Daytona 500.

Chase Standings heading into Talladega:
Brad Keselowski 2142 points, back to the lead
Jimmie Johnson 2137 points, dropped a spot and 5 points back
Denny Hamlin 2126 points, third but loses 9 points to 16 points behind leader
Clint Bowyer 2117 points, vaults two drivers but loses 10 points to 25 behind leader
Kasey Kahne 2110 points, remains fifth but now 32 points behind leader
Tony Stewart 2110 points, dropped a spot and is now 32 points behind leader
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2103 points, drops 13 points to 39 points behind leader
Martin Truex Jr. 2100 points, passes 2 drivers but 42 points behind leader
Kevin Harvick 2096 points, loses 15 points to 46 points behind
Jeff Gordon 2094 points, out of the Chase basement but 48 points behind
Greg Biffle 2091 points, dropped 2 spots and is 51 points behind
Matt Kenseth 2070 points, now 72 points behind

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