Mash The Gas: Richmond Preview

Action during the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway. [Credit: Streeter Lecka/Getty Images]

by Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series regular season comes to an end Saturday night as the Federated Auto Parts 400 at the Richmond International Raceway is the final race on the schedule before the Chase for the Championship begins.

Richmond represents the last shot for many drivers to punch their ticket to the Chase as when the checkered flag falls the 16 driver Chase field will be set. Despite having some banking, the Richmond track races a lot like the flat tracks at Phoenix and New Hampshire and traditionally drivers who have performed well at those facilities seem to have good results at Richmond.

The Chase field will be set Saturday night in the Federated Auto Parts 400 from Richmond and here are a few of the many storylines to watch this weekend…

Joey Logano (Dan Margetta)
Joey Logano is one of those drivers who have been very successful at the before mentioned tracks at Phoenix and New Hampshire and he also holds a pretty stout record at Richmond. He finished fifth here in the spring and he enters this weekend’s race at 8-1 odds to win. Joey Logano has won two of the last four Sprint Cup races and he has racked up top five finishes in nine of the last twelve events. The Penske #22 team is hitting their stride just as the Chase begins and the bonus points that would come with a victory go a long way in the opening Chase round. Logano is solidly in the Chase and does not have to worry about anything other than winning the race and his Penske team appears ready to do so.

Kyle Busch (John Wiedemann)
Kyle Busch leads all active Sprint Cup Series drivers with four wins at Richmond and could be on his way to number five on Saturday night. Kyle is also tied for the lead in wins this season with four and certainly wouldn’t mind another three bonus points if he can get one last victory before the Chase starts. While many had wondered if Kyle could race into the top thirty in the standings in just 15 races, he actually is locked into the Chase at this point at 83 points ahead of 31st place Cole Whitt. With the run that Joe Gibbs Racing has been on and Kyle’s success at Richmond, it just makes sense that he would wrap up the “regular” season with a victory, and that is my prediction.

Kurt Busch (DM)
Kurt Busch is driving Chassis number 839 this weekend at Richmond. What’s so significant about that? The last time this chassis was raced was right here at Richmond in April where Busch dominated the race in scoring the first of his two victories this season. Kurt Busch returns to Richmond with the same car and 10-1 odds to win and his overall Richmond record is pretty impressive with 2 wins and six top five finishes. Busch also races well at Phoenix where he was fourth and New Hampshire where he was tenth and should also be up front Saturday night at Richmond. Another driver solidly in the Chase, Kurt Busch will also be in the “win only” mode and if everything holds together, he should contend for his third victory of the season.

Clint Bowyer (JW)
Two-time Richmond winner Clint Bowyer doesn’t need a victory to make the Chase but it sure would make things easier. It’s real simple for Bowyer to make the Chase, he just doesn’t need anyone below him in the point standings to win the race on Saturday night. As long as that doesn’t happen, Bowyer the “man on the bubble” will make the Chase. So Bowyer will need to make sure that those 14 drivers that would make the Chase with a victory, don’t take the checkers first. That is why it would be easier for Bowyer to just win. How possible is that? Bowyer spent most of the spring’s Richmond race in the top ten, finally finishing ninth. Bowyer’s career average is an 11.4 finish in 19 races at Richmond. If Bowyer is running in the top ten on Saturday night, I would say he would have a great shot going for the win.

Jimmie Johnson (DM)
Jimmie Johnson is listed at 18-1 odds to win for Saturday night’s race at Richmond. If you have been paying attention over the last several years, that should make you spit your drink. What has happened to the six time champion that holds three Richmond wins to give him such high odds? For starters, Johnson hasn’t won since the end of May and he has only two top five finishes in that string of twelve races. The once mighty Hendrick Motorsports team has struggled of late as an organization and for the first time in many seasons, Johnson and the #48 team will enter the Chase as underdogs. However Jimmie Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus have seemed to be down on the mat before and they have always come right back up swinging. If they do have any fight in them, we should see it Saturday night at Richmond. They did finish third here in April.

Kevin Harvick (JW)
In 29 Richmond International Raceway races, Kevin Harvick has three wins, nine top five and 18 top ten finishes to go along with an average finish of 10.7. Those stats place him at the top of the list amongst the drivers racing Saturday night. Harvick has long been qualified for the Chase, but like his competitors could use another win and the bonus points that go along with it. In the spring race, Harvick spent the race chasing his teammate Kurt Busch who dominated the event. The Stewart-Haas teammates have had speed all season and could put on another dominating show on Saturday night.

Kasey Kahne (DM)
So it’s the Chase cut-off race and Kasey Kahne is on the brink of elimination from being included in this year’s class. It’s a pretty typical position for Kahne to be in as he traditionally qualifies for the Chase just under the gun. About the only way he makes it this year is to win on Saturday night and in the past his Hendrick horsepower has helped get the job done when the chips were down. This year though, the Hendrick teams have not been as strong and find themselves behind a bit. That should make it a tough task for Kahne to make the Chase this year as he enters Richmond at 30-1 odds to win. It’s now or never for Kasey Kahne so look for a bit of desperation out of this team as they go for broke to try to make the Chase Saturday night.

Kyle Larson (JW)
Kyle Larson needs a win. Not just to make the Chase, but for Larson to break out of the sophomore slump he has been in this year. Larson was expected to tear it up during his rookie year last season and he did well, but didn’t get the win that everyone was looking for. Now in 2015, he has regressed. Larson is seven top five and ten top ten finishes behind his totals last season. Larson’s average finish is five positions behind his average from last season as well. Larson turned it on in the Chase last season, a reason why more was expected this season, and he may be able to do that again. If he can pick up the win on Saturday night, he can turn it on while being a part of the Chase.

Dan Margetta

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