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Mash The Gas – Richmond Preview

This is it. Eighteen drivers are either in or still have a shot at making the Chase as the twenty-six race NASCAR Sprint Cup Series regular season closes out at the Richmond International Raceway on Saturday night. After the checkered flag flies, twelve of those drivers will start competing for the Sprint Cup and the other six will run out the rest of the season.

For those drivers looking for one of the few remaining spots in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship, it all comes down to this weekend. Basically there are just two spots available in this year’s Chase dance and eight drivers are mathematically eligible to claim them which ramps up the pressure on the contenders

Drivers already locked into the Chase have the final opportunity to capture a victory and gain the precious bonus points that go along with it. A single point would have changed last season’s championship results and that notion remains burned in the minds of the drivers, making the Federated Auto Parts 400 a “do or die..Game 7” type of event where victory is the only thing that matters.

Virginia is for Lovers, but not so much on Saturday night on the .75 mile D shaped oval of Richmond International Raceway. 400 laps totaling 300 miles make up the Federated Auto Parts 400 with the green flag scheduled to wave at 7:44pm eastern on September 8th. The race will be broadcast on ABC.

Favorites:
Kyle Busch
JW: Clearly the top driver at Richmond, all the pressure is on Kyle Busch to maintain his wild card heading into the Chase. Fifteen races at Richmond have culminated in four wins (including this year’s spring race) and three finishes outside of the top five (a 6th, 15th and 20th). Yes, Kyle is good at Richmond. It’s an easy one but, Kyle is my pick to turn up the excitement on Saturday night and end up in victory lane.

DM: Busch won here in the spring and can clinch his Chase slot with either a win or gaining twelve points on Jeff Gordon. He currently holds the final wild card position but is nowhere near safe as a win by Gordon, Marcos Ambrose, Ryan Newman, or teammate Joey Logano automatically knocks him out.

Kasey Kahne
JW: Kasey Kahne is pretty solid as far as his chances for making the Chase. He still would love to make it into the top 10 and grab those three bonus points for each of his two wins. A win at Richmond would give him three on the year, if he could do that and pass Tony Stewart in the standings he would jump to second in the standings starting the Chase. Kahne has had some inconsistent finishes at Richmond to go along with one win, but a fifth place in the spring race bodes well for him.

DM: After a disastrous start to the season, Kahne rebounded nicely and picked up two wins to solidify his Chase chances. He currently holds the first wildcard slot in the Chase and could guarantee his position with a finish of 13th or better. A victory could vault him past Tony Stewart and into the top ten where he would enjoy the benefit of being awarded bonus points for his victories.

Jeff Gordon
JW: Throw the stats out of the side window, although he finished third in this race last year, Jeff Gordon needs to win and get into the Chase. A season frustration could come to a boiling point if Gordon doesn’t make the Chase following Saturday night’s race, and there is a good probability that he won’t make it.

DM: Jeff Gordon vs. Kyle Busch for the last Chase spot should be the main storyline at Richmond. Gordon needs to win Saturday night or gain thirteen points on Busch. Luck hasn’t been on Gordon’s side this season and his only victory came in the rain-shortened Pocono race after leaders Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth crashed each other out. Last week after Atlanta, Jeff questioned his decision not to lay a bumper to eventual winner Denny Hamlin, stating he feels he is getting old. If a Chase spot is on the line Saturday, don’t expect to see that same courtesy this weekend.

Carl Edwards
JW: Carl Edwards chances for making the Chase may have went south when his motor blew at Atlanta, but he still has one more shot, kind if a long shot. Edwards has a five race top ten streak going at Richmond, but he needs to win. This will be a lost season for the driver that missed out on the Championship by a tie breaker last season. With his teammates at the top of the standings this year, it is hard to believe that Edwards may miss the Chase. Edwards was fast in the spring Richmond race this year, but it was too fast. Penalized for jumping a restart, Edwards recovered to finish tenth in a race he could have won.

DM: Believe it or not, but Edwards’ championship aspirations haven’t flat-lined yet, but they are oh so close to being done. In order to make the Chase, last season’s runner-up in a tie-breaker must win the race AND have Kyle Busch finish 24th or worse AND have Jeff Gordon finish 12th or worse, AND have Tony Stewart remain in the top ten in points. Do you believe in miracles?

Tony Stewart
DM: Tony Stewart has three victories and currently occupies the tenth and final spot in the Chase where bonus points will be awarded for those victories. He has clinched at least a wildcard berth but needs a good race to keep is top-ten spot as both Kasey Kahne and Kyle Busch are nipping at his heels and could displace him from the tenth position.

Kevin Harvick
JW: Kevin Harvick returned to being a contender at Atlanta last weekend. Leading 101 laps and finishing fifth, his fourth top five of the season, Harvick clinched a spot in the Chase and may be firing up a hot streak heading into the final ten races. Harvick won the fall race at Richmond last season on his way to a solid third place finish in the Chase and could be repeating that streak again this season.

Final Wild Card Watch
by John Wiedemann

Following Atlanta the Wild Card standings are:
He is in (most likely):
Kasey Kahne, 2 wins, 751 points

He is in for now:
Kyle Busch, 1 win, 746 pts

A win would put him in but points are still a possibility:
Jeff Gordon, 1 win, 734 pts

These guys need their second win:
Marcos Ambrose, 1 win, 706 pts
Ryan Newman, 1 win, 697 pts
Joey Logano, 1 win, 664 pts

Need a win plus points:
Carl Edwards, 0 wins, 720 pts
Paul Menard, 0 wins, 710 pts

Here is the deal, Kasey Kahne is 98% in (I’m making up the percentage). If Tony Stewart would fall out of the top ten (see below) and if Kyle Busch would finish second and if Gordon would win, then Kahne would be on thin ice. In that unlikely scenario, Busch would make it in the top ten, Stewart would be the top wild card and it would come down to points between Gordon and Kahne to see who gets into the Chase. Make that Kahne is 99.8% in.

Kyle Busch as noted above is great at Richmond, but four other guys can pass him if they win and he finishes second. The final laps will be must-see if one of those guys are in front and he is chasing.

Jeff Gordon had a shot at the win last weekend and decided to take the Mark Martin school of driving route. Gordon needs to win to get in the Chase or finish with thirteen more points than Busch and hope none of the other Chase hopefuls gets their second win of the season.

Marcos Ambrose, Ryan Newman and Joey Logano need a win to get in.

Carl Edwards and Paul Menard are long shots. They both need to win and then hope Busch and Gordon have a bad race and fall through the standings. Edwards would need to pick up 15 points to pass Gordon and 27 points to pass Busch. Add ten points to both of those for Menard to move into Wild Card territory with a win. Both of these guys are deep in the long shot category.

What about Tony Stewart? The most points that Stewart could lose on Saturday is 47 (48 if he doesn’t race) to the driver that wins and leads the most laps. That means that only Kahne, Kyle Busch and Gordon can pass him and make it into the top ten. Even if Stewart would fall out of the top ten, his three wins guarantee him a Wild Card entry into the Chase. The possibility of this scenario happening is highly unlikely and, considering start and park drivers, even more unlikely that he would finish dead last at Richmond. None of the other top nine drivers can fall out of the top ten.

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