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Mash The Gas: Phoenix

Phoenix International Raceway in Avondale, Arizona is the site for the final round to determine the four drivers that will be eligible to contend for the Championship at Homestead.  [Chris Trotman/Getty Images]

by Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann

The desert Southwest sets the stage for the final event in the Eliminator Round of the NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup Sunday when the Phoenix International Raceway hosts the Quicken Loans 500.

Quicken Loans Race For Heroes 500
Phoenix International Raceway
Distance: 500 kilometers (312 laps)
Sunday, Nov. 9, 3pm ET
ESPN, 2 pm ET
MRN, Sirius XM Ch. 90
The Phoenix race marks the final cut in the Chase for the Sprint Cup and at its conclusion the final four combatants to decide the title will be known. With Non-Chase Hendrick Motorsports drivers Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. scoring victories in the two previous Eliminator Round events, at least three drivers will advance via their point totals with a win on Sunday again worth an automatic berth to Homestead. If another Non-chaser wins, all four of the final championship drivers will move on via their point totals.

The current Chasers are packed extremely tight points wise and no one is safe which should make the Phoenix event an exciting one to watch as the flat one mile oval usually provides for some close quarters racing.

No one really knows how it will all sort out but here are some drivers to watch on Sunday…

Kevin Harvick
(Dan Margetta): Kevin Harvick has owned the Phoenix International Raceway over the past few years as he has five victories to his credit, including three of the last four races held here. He scored a dominating win at Phoenix earlier this season back in February and he is a heavy 3-1 odds on favorite to win again on Sunday. Harvick desperately needs that win this week as it is about the only way he will advance on to Homestead and if the victory is within his sight late on Sunday, watch for him to be in “full bulldoze mode” as he sets his sights on #Harvicking his way to the championship. Kevin Harvick should be the driver to beat on Sunday unless one of his rivals can pull a “reverse mode” and rattle him for a change. Then again, a team that has been prone to mistakes all season could provide all the rattling those rivals need if they don’t turn in an error-free performance when it counts the most.

Jeff Gordon
(John Wiedemann): Jeff Gordon was in perfect position to roll into Phoenix with a comfortable point lead and transfer to the Championship round all but locked up. But, that was not to be when he and Brad Keselowski made contact, cutting Gordon’s tire and eventually spinning his car from second place to finish 29th at Texas. Rather than a possible points day of about 43, Gordon picked up only 16. That is why he wanted to take on Keselowski on pit road. That is what could have been. Reality now is that Gordon needs to put Texas behind him and score at least a top five or better to move out of fourth place in the standings. Fifth place was the finish for Gordon in the spring at Phoenix, but the trouble is that three of the current Chasers finished better than him (Kevin Harvick, Keselowski, Joey Logano) and two others (Ryan Newman, Carl Edwards) scored a top ten. Gordon has two wins and 11 top five runs at Phoenix in 31 races. Adding to those stats should allow him to continue the “Drive For Five” championship run.

Joey Logano
DM: Joey Logano has been the most consistent driver throughout the Chase and under the old system, may have been celebrating the title a week early. This year however, the stakes are different and Logano finds himself battling for a spot in the finals, needing an 11th place finish or better to clinch. While Logano hasn’t run well at Phoenix in the past, he was fourth here earlier this year and his Penske Ford has been up to the task all season long. With the most top five finishes in the Chase, that 11th place barrier looks to be pretty attainable for this team. However, as we learned last weekend, when the chips are down, nothing is predictable and the slightest contact on the race track can ruin a driver’s day in seconds. Oddly, the team is not bringing their fourth place car from earlier this season, opting instead to race the chassis they used in Atlanta where they finished 14th. At 10-1 odds this week, a breakout championship is within Joey Logano’s sights. Now the driver and team need to go out there and get it.

Brad Keselowski
JW: Here we go again. Brad Keselowski is seventh in the standings with the cutoff at three or four to move on to the championship. 15 points behind the guaranteed transfer position of third, Keselowski is not completely back in a must win situation like he was at Talladega but it is pretty close to that. Back in March, Keselowski spent most of the day running in the top five and finished third behind Dale Earnhardt Jr and winner Kevin Harvick. Another performance like that could allow him to move forward in the Chase, but it would rely on others finishing much lower. The direct ticket for Bad Brad is to win. Surely all the fireworks and headlocks that Keselowski has endured in the past weeks will be worth it if he can roll into Homestead with a chance to win his second cup. The only other worry is if Jeff Gordon has a bad day at Phoenix. If that happens, Keselowski will have a bigger target on his car than Kyle Larson.

Denny Hamlin
DM: In a bit of irony, Denny Hamlin, with no top five finishes in the Chase so far, also needs to finish 11th or better to clinch is way to the finals. He’s in the same position as Joey Logano who has the most top five finishes. Hamlin used to tear up the flat tracks on a regular basis and he has one Phoenix win to go along with eight top 5 finishes. But since running low on fuel while in command of this event and the championship back in 2010, Hamlin has yet to recover to run well here and he was a mediocre 19th back in February. His odds this week at 20-1, reflect those recent results. While the other Chasers have beat on each other each week, Hamlin has quietly collected enough decent finishes to put himself in title contention. This week he had some harsh words for Brad Keselowski in the media so he’s back in the spotlight and we’ll see if the attention helps of hinders his chances of making the finals.

Carl Edwards
JW: I swear every time the position ticker at the top of the TV and it showed Carl Edwards name at Texas, he was mired in and around 23rd place. Then with ten laps to go and a lot of different pit strategy being utilized, Edwards popped up into the top ten. When the checkers flew and the fights started, Edward finished in 9th place and saved his shot at a championship. Just a point behind the fourth place tie of Jeff Gordon and Edwards former/future teammate Matt Kenseth, Carl still can see a path to the Championship round even without a win. Although a win is not a remote possibility, Edwards has won twice at Phoenix and finished eighth there in March, although it was climb from a 23rd place start. The Texas race is a great example of how Edwards has struggled to remain in the Chase this season with only three top ten finishes and a 13.8 average finish. With only two races left driving for Roush Fenway Racing, Edwards is going to go all in to make them relevant.

Matt Kenseth
DM: Matt Kenseth would like to redeem himself at Phoenix as a year ago his championship hopes were dashed following an uncharacteristically poor run in the desert. With one career victory at Phoenix, Kenseth currently sits just outside the cut off mark, one point and track position behind Jeff Gordon and he doesn’t control his own destiny without a victory on Sunday. He’s listed at 12-1 odds this week and finished 12th here back in February. Kenseth should have a solid run on Sunday but with the Chasers so close points wise, it will be near impossible to know where they stand as the race unfolds. The easiest and least complicated way to advance to Homestead is for Kenseth and the #20 team to take care of business themselves and win the race. The kicker is, after a seven win season a year ago, trips to victory lane have been hard to come by this year as they still seek their first win of the season. The somewhat agonizing wait would be worth it if that initial 2014 victory came when it absolutely mattered the most here at Phoenix on Sunday.

Ryan Newman
JW: Listing Ryan Newman last among the Chasers is not an indication of how he has run, but how quiet he has been in positioning himself to be in the final four at Homestead. Newman is third in the standings, the last guaranteed points position to transfer to the Championship round. With a cushion of ten points over fourth place Jeff Gordon, Newman isn’t safe by any means, but it still is a good spot to be in. A late race incident with Matt Kenseth at Texas left Newman in 15th at the end of the race and ended a streak of five consecutive top ten and two consecutive top five finishes. Newman has one win at Phoenix and according to the NASCAR Statistical service is second best in Quality Passes. Newman finished seventh in the March race at Phoenix and spent six laps leading the pack with 60 laps to go. Another run like that and Newman might punch his ticket to a Championship run at Homestead.

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