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Mash The Gas: Michigan Preview

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to the Irish Hills of Michigan as the Michigan International Speedway hosts the Pure Michigan 400 on Sunday afternoon.

Kurt Busch leads a pack of cars during at Michigan International Speedway. [Credit: Rey Del Rio/Getty Images]

By Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to the Irish Hills of Michigan as the Michigan International Speedway hosts the Pure Michigan 400 on Sunday afternoon.

Pure Michigan 400
Michigan International Speedway
400 miles (200 laps)
Sunday, Aug. 16, 2:30pm ET
NBCSN, 2pm ET
MRN, SiriusXM Ch. 90
Michigan is known for its wide lanes and high speeds but this weekend there is a new twist in the works as NASCAR has implemented the high drag aerodynamic rules package from Indianapolis. That means the drivers should be close to flat footing it around the wide 2-mile oval in cars that should punch a big hole in the air and could create a drafting situation.

Add to it, the high speeds seen at Michigan since the track’s repave a few years ago and we could see pack racing return at a time when the clock is ticking toward the deadline to make the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

The many unknowns associated with this weekend should make for an interesting Pure Michigan 400 Sunday afternoon and here are a few drivers to watch…

Kyle Busch (Dan Margetta)
Kyle Busch won the last race these aero rules were utilized and while he didn’t dominate the event, the high drag package seems to suit his pedal to the metal driving style. Currently qualified for the Chase in the 30th points position, Busch will be looking to add to his win total and he enters this weekend at 7-1 odds. He has one Michigan victory to his credit and while his record here has not been good lately, having a best finish of 31st since June of 2013, the circumstances seem to be lining up in his favor. The Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas have knocked the Hendrick Chevrolets from the throne in the garage area and Busch has taken the most advantage from that, having rattled off four wins. Kyle Busch will be looking to avenge his last place finish here in June with another victory on Sunday.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (John Wiedemann)
The mix of Michigan’s track and a possible drafting form of racing seems to play right into Dale Earnhardt Jr’s hands this weekend. While the high downforce rules didn’t work out so well for Junior at Indianapolis, this weekend could be different. Earnhardt has two wins on this track and averages about fifth best in the NASCAR stats amongst active drivers. His average finish of 12.2 should get a boost this weekend as I expect him to be in the mix of contenders. This race also tends to be a fuel mileage event which Earnhardt has shown to be good at in the past. But, will the high-downforce rules change the fuel aspect of the race. Look for teams to have different pitting strategies this weekend, which could come into play for a good finish more than if a driver is running fast. If Earnhardt and Greg Ives play the strategy right, Junior will be at the front.

Joey Logano (DM)
Perhaps the hottest team in the Sprint Cup garage that no one is talking about has to be Joey Logano and the #22 Penske group. Coming off a win last weekend at Watkins Glen, this team has notched top five finishes in seven of the last nine races, with one of those worse than fifth finishes coming at Pocono where Logano ran out of fuel closing in on the checkered flag. Logano has a single Michigan victory to his credit to go along with three top fives and eight top ten results and he is listed at 8-1 odds this weekend. He also has five straight top ten finishes at Michigan and was fifth here in June. Joey Logano has quietly been on a roll of late and another win is not out of the question on Sunday.

Kurt Busch (JW)
Little brother Kyle has four wins and it is time for big brother Kurt Busch, who has two, to catch up. Kurt has three wins at Michigan, including the most recent trip to the track where he won the rain-shortened event in June. Stewart-Haas Racing still seems to be the team with the most speed and speed will be on display at Michigan this weekend. Kurt is seventh in the Chase Grid and will just be looking for wins and bonus points throughout the rest of the regular season. With top ten finishes in eight out of his last nine races and an overall average finish of 10.3 this season, Busch is in championship form. Look for that to continue this weekend.

Brad Keselowski (DM)
Historically Michigan has been a track that has been kind to Fords and Brad Keselowski is the one Ford driver who would love to find victory lane here. Michigan is Keselowski’s home track and he has yet to win here despite having some good runs as he owns three top five finishes and four top ten results. He finished sixth here in June and enters this weekend at 8-1 odds. Keselowski will be driving a retro looking black and gold Miller Genuine Draft paint scheme this weekend reminiscent of the famous “Midnight” car Rusty Wallace drove for many years. Brad Keselowski wants to win in front of the hometown crowd in the worse possible way and Sunday presents another solid chance to get that accomplished.

Kevin Harvick (JW)
Kevin Harvick was the driver to beat at the June race in Michigan. The only thing that could stop him was a flat tire mixed with rain. The other driver of the Stewart-Haas “Speed Brothers”, Harvick has qualified in the top five ten times this season including qualifying on the front row at the June Michigan race. Harvick has a win and twelve top ten finishes at Michigan with an average finish of 12.3. Another driver locked into the Chase and just looking for bonus points, Harvick’s team may try some interesting pit strategy to pull off the victory. Harvick is my pick to win this weekend and truly a driver to watch, which will be easy since he will be at the front.

Kyle Larson (DM)
With time running out to make the Chase, Kyle Larson more than likely needs to win to qualify this season and Michigan could offer a tempting opportunity to find victory lane. The high drag aero rules could favor a guy that likes to keep his foot on the gas and use every bit of a wide track to keep moving forward. That sounds a lot like Kyle Larson who enters this weekend at 30-1 odds. He has a best finish of 8th in his three Michigan starts and he was a quiet 17th here in June, but with time running out, Larson knows his only shot at the Chase is to find victory lane. When it comes to getting somewhere quick, Kyle Larson is pretty good and if he can stay in contention until the late stages of the race, his first career victory could come on Sunday.

Greg Biffle (JW)
With four wins at Michigan, Greg Biffle leads the series in that category as well as driver rating. Couple that with Roush Fenway Racing’s struggles and Biffle’s 36th place finish in the June race, and well, the result is completely unpredictable. Throw in a new spotter and things don’t look too good for Biffle. But Biffle needs to win and this is the track that he needs to do it at. Mired in 19th place on the Chase Grid and 80 points away from making the Chase, Biffle’s only hope is to win. The same could be said for Aric Almirola, Kasey Kahne and Kyle Larson. Again, look for interesting pit strategies coming from these teams along with a lot of aggressiveness. It’s just about winning for these guys and if this weekend turns into a drafting race, things could get really interesting and intense.

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